Key points in today's report from the Council of Economic Advisers:
"1. Health care spending is growing at the slowest rate on record: According to the most recent projections, real per capita health care spending has grown at an estimated average annual rate of just 1.3 percent over the three years since 2010. This is the lowest rate on record for any three-year period and less than one-third the long-term historical average stretching back to 1965. This slower growth in spending is reflected in Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. "
"2. Health care price inflation is at its lowest rate in 50 years: Measured using personal consumption expenditure price indices, inflation for health care goods and services is currently running at just 1 percent on a year-over-year basis, the lowest level since January 1962. (Health care inflation measured using the medical CPI is lower than at any time since September 1972.)"
"3. The slowdown in health care cost growth is not due solely to the Great Recession; something has changed: The fact that the health cost slowdown has persisted so long even as the economy is recovering, the fact that it is reflected in health care prices â not just utilization or coverage, and the fact that it has also shown up in Medicare â which is more insulated from economic trends, all imply that the current slowdown is the result of more than just the recession and its aftermath. Rather, the slowdown appears to reflect âstructuralâ changes in the United States health care system, a conclusion consistent with a substantial body of recent research."
"4. The ACA is contributing to the recent slow growth in health care prices and spending and is improving quality of care: ACA provisions that reduce Medicare overpayments to private insurers and medical providers are contributing to the recent slow growth in health care prices and spending. Other ACA reforms are reducing hospital readmission rates (see figure below) and increasing provider participation in payment models designed to promote efficient, high-quality care. "
"5. Slower growth in health care costs, thanks in part to the ACA, is likely to have substantial benefits for the Nationâs economy:
" The recent slow growth in health care spending has substantially improved the long-term Federal budget outlook: The Congressional Budget Office has reduced its projections of future Medicare and Medicaid spending in 2020 by $147 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) since August 2010. This represents about a 10 percent reduction in projected spending on these programs. These revisions primarily reflect the recent slow growth in health care spending."
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