latest Rally

[themickey]

..... I believe mid-long term like 1-12 months or longer this market will struggle to go higher.

Not a very clever thing to say.
We've had corona virus, now a war in europe and mkt rallies. You can't always apply logic to trading, if you could, we'd all be millionaires.
Trade what's right in front of your nose, its going up atm.
Even this latest correction has not been a bearish pullback, commodities have been strong.

 

[nitrene]

This mini-rally seems more promising since the SPY, DIA & IWM all closed above their 50-day SMA. The QQQ is right at the 5-day SMA. IWM & MDY (Mid-Cap) closed above the 5-day SMA on Thursday. They've all broken the downtrend for sure.

The much reviled (at least on ET) ARKK is only 6.4% from the 50-day SMA, it was up 26% from the Monday lows to the Friday close. Interestingly the ARKG (Cathie Wood's Genomics ETF) is right at the 50-day SMA as well. The FANG+ ETF FNGU (actually it is a 3X ETF run by BMO) amazingly was up 65% from the Tuesday lows to the Friday close; of course it was down 74% from 11/4/21 to 3/15/22 so it would have to go up 4X from 3/15 to break even.

Europe (FEZ) & Emerging markets (EEM) are still in the sell territory. Even these have somewhat broken the downtrend. Of course buying the EEM doesn't make sense buying the individual ETFs of countries that sell commodities vs. buying them makes sense. Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, UAE, Indonesia,etc.

 

[S2007S]

This mini-rally seems more promising since the SPY, DIA & IWM all closed above their 50-day SMA. The QQQ is right at the 5-day SMA. IWM & MDY (Mid-Cap) closed above the 5-day SMA on Thursday. They've all broken the downtrend for sure.

The much reviled (at least on ET) ARKK is only 6.4% from the 50-day SMA, it was up 26% from the Monday lows to the Friday close. Interestingly the ARKG (Cathie Wood's Genomics ETF) is right at the 50-day SMA as well. The FANG+ ETF FNGU (actually it is a 3X ETF run by BMO) amazingly was up 65% from the Tuesday lows to the Friday close; of course it was down 74% from 11/4/21 to 3/15/22 so it would have to go up 4X from 3/15 to break even.

Europe (FEZ) & Emerging markets (EEM) are still in the sell territory. Even these have somewhat broken the downtrend. Of course buying the EEM doesn't make sense buying the individual ETFs of countries that sell commodities vs. buying them makes sense. Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, UAE, Indonesia,etc.

The only thing that will keep this rally going is oil prices and overall commodity prices moving lower and a stop to the Russia Ukraine geopolitical fallout. If this doesn't end stocks will continue to sell off. I Believe the markets felt a sigh of relief when the fed did a .25 rate hike which is absolutely nothing to keep inflation tame. They should have gone full throttle and did a whole 1%, but they Believe it's transitory. Haaaa, anyway this is an opportunity to sell.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

we have just had the second rally of 4 days on S&P 500 this year. The last one was followed by more downside. S&P did break both the 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA, but that is not new. I just am not buying this rally, not only has nothing changed , but things are worse. Since that last 4 day rally that started on Jan 28 , we have the Ukraine war and now a Fed interest rate hike. Plus, we never got to a 20% correction on SP or DOW, although NAS did. This week will be interesting and we will see if this rally has any real traction or is another short lived thing. View attachment 280635

No new lows this last swing, will likely try to backtest some support. Hopefully fails and makes a new low for the year.

 

[nitrene]

I think the Oil going down & Fed being somewhat dovish definitely was a signal to the traders to buy buy buy. Interestingly WTI & Brent both went up the last few days but the markets kept rising so that is interesting. I agree that WTI/Brent above $120-$130 is not going to help the NASDAQ whatsoever.

I did notice something on Friday that the commodity stocks were mostly down except for the industrial commodity stocks in the morning at least and some of them came back by the end of the day except for Chevron & ExxonMobil.

I still think this market is capped by the old highs at best, however that's another 16% on the QQQ so its gotten more dangerous to press your shorts. I like to read Dan Niles who runs the Satori Fund and he has a pretty good read on short term momentum of the markets and he thinks this is a just another rally in an ongoing bear market for tech stocks. I remember he got out of his large cap tech shorts last Tuesday. I think he said there would be a 10-15% rally and then start sliding down again.

 

[Nine_Ender]

No new lows this last swing, will likely try to backtest some support. Hopefully fails and makes a new low for the year.

You got that last week. Try to keep up.

 

[Nine_Ender]

The only thing that will keep this rally going is oil prices and overall commodity prices moving lower and a stop to the Russia Ukraine geopolitical fallout. If this doesn't end stocks will continue to sell off. I Believe the markets felt a sigh of relief when the fed did a .25 rate hike which is absolutely nothing to keep inflation tame. They should have gone full throttle and did a whole 1%, but they Believe it's transitory. Haaaa, anyway this is an opportunity to sell.

But you haven't sold. I want to hear you say you sold your retirement fund to cash before you start telling others to sell.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

You got that last week. Try to keep up.

Tell me where on the chart we made new lows last week

 

[Nine_Ender]

Tell me where on the chart we made new lows last weekView attachment 280644

Lows don't have to be exact. The buying is huge in that area every single time this year.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Lows don't have to be exact. The buying is huge in that area every single time this year.

Yes I agree. That doesn't change the fact that I want it to fail