we have just had the second rally of 4 days on S&P 500 this year. The last one was followed by more downside. S&P did break both the 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA, but that is not new. I just am not buying this rally, not only has nothing changed , but things are worse. Since that last 4 day rally that started on Jan 28 , we have the Ukraine war and now a Fed interest rate hike. Plus, we never got to a 20% correction on SP or DOW, although NAS did. This week will be interesting and we will see if this rally has any real traction or is another short lived thing.
latest Rally
- Thread starter Jdesey
- Start date
I’m a noob so I don’t know Jack but seems to me from what I’ve been learning here and elsewhere that price pays nothing else. So if the chart says it’s real (which I’m not saying it is or isn’t) then all these known news items mean nothing.
I’ve always felt, even before i started learning TA, that it’s what we SONT know that can hurt us, more than what we do know.
but I’m a noob
This week closed up 6.14 % on ES.
The last 8 times that happened (also accounting for the market being down from the top) we saw a positive net change 6 out of 8 or 75 % if you like percentages. With the largest net change being + 4.17%.
2 of the weeks in the sample saw a sharp reversal closing downm approximately 5-7 %, so definitely possible we'll see a reversal, but odds seems to favour a range bound green week.
The market appears to be very news sensitive at the moment, so I'll say that's what will be the major influence. Absence of bad news or even positive news will drive this market higher for sure.
The last 8 times that happened (also accounting for the market being down from the top) we saw a positive net change 6 out of 8 or 75 % if you like percentages. With the largest net change being + 4.17%.
2 of the weeks in the sample saw a sharp reversal closing downm approximately 5-7 %, so definitely possible we'll see a reversal, but odds seems to favour a range bound green week.
The market appears to be very news sensitive at the moment, so I'll say that's what will be the major influence. Absence of bad news or even positive news will drive this market higher for sure.
This is a bad take on things. Nothing got worse on future outlook and stocks got technically stronger. Doesn't mean US indexes are a short term buy but it lends serious credibility we put in a bottom in on SPX. And if SPX remains range bound it makes other aspects of markets that are trending up more attractive and less risky. Are you aware of the year over year earnings growth ?
You said that at lower levels. So you are losing money on all your recent moves and you still haven't clarified what you did with your retirement money at any point this year. It wouldn't make sense to tell other people to see their stocks if your haven't yourself. And don't give me some bull about putting no new money in I am referring to your legacy holdings. Clarify what you did and when or shut up.
The last close of the Daily chart still showed we had bullish divergence not yet cleared. Which means more often than not we would at least take out the last ES relative highs highs(4577.50) before moving too much lower. Certainly can see what others are saying regarding it setting up for another decent short trade, but for my own personal consistency sake not interested in front running it. I am going to keep doing what works for me and that is taking it day by day and finding strong setups. If we open up Sunday and just tank. I am ok with that, wasn't in my plan to hold a short over the weekend regardless and not interested in risky or lucky trades, that's not how you made a career out of trading.
how can you say that. Rising interest rates are bad for stocks, especially growth stocks. Those companies rely on cheap money to borrow and expand their businesses. As those sources of funds become more expensive it bites into their future growth of earnings. Are you really gonna tell us that is not so?
It's easier to play the "tank" long after it occurs then anticipate the "tank".