Kudos to MMs

Quote from GTS:

If you say so - from an external view it appears illogical to be staying out of the market when your system is screaming short and we have bounced 50 points of the recent low.
It sure smells like discretionary trading.
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It may appear that way, but I assure you that behind the scenes it is mostly quantitative.

Are the still pockets of discretionary trading? Absolutely. It remains my continued wish to eliminate myself completely and become useless so that I can concentrate on far more interesting things, like the Hodge Conjecture or the Riemann Hypotheses.
 
Quote from shortie:

FV does not provide t.

it also tends to overshoot, i.e. it is more volatile than SPX. so you can't take 840 literally.

this incarnation of FV appears to predict the direction of the long-term trend so nitro catches oscillation trading in the direction of the trend. this makes sense.

i like another version that was able to predict short-term levels at least under particular market conditions.
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You have a decent feel for FV. "Multiple equilibria" may be a compromise between the old model that you fell in love with, and the modern version that gets the overall trend mostly correctly.

There is going to come a time when it is right to go long again, and FV will lag and cause me grief. I am pretty certain that I will not lag by more than 50 handle this time. It is at these points that I learn the most.
 
S SPX 1140.65.

Fully expecting to lose money, perhaps even for a couple of days, but it is the disciplined entry. Next resistance, 1172, which SPX may easily reach.
 
Quote from nitro:

Don't be fooled by SPX red. This is likely to be green, say +5 to + 20 by EOD.
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Just for the record, but we closed up exactly by 20 pts.

Stupid question, but why didn't you play it long??? You saw the bounce yesterday and the rally today, why not go long? Oh I forgot, your FV is predicting down....
 
Quote from nitro:

10-04-11 08:23 PM

Calibrated FV, 812.77. FV, 1027.13. Mid, 919.95.
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This really sucks.... I thought I had 258 handles of edge when I sold yesterday at 1070. What should I do now?

Oh wait... I bot em there... I'm not thinking too clearly anymore....
 
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