Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV, 803.57.
More...

So FV goes a bit lower, and sure enough that was posted at the low of the day, 25 pts rally from there. Fade FV is sure back....

Care to explain why FV didn't see this 85 pts rally in the last few days???? I think it was a big enough move that it should have been reflected in the strategy....
 
Niall Ferguson says we are facing a "slight depression".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44782492/

It seems interesting that before the 1930 ish depression, the one before that was in 1870. If we extrapolate (two data points is ridiculous, but assume Bayes) and say that depressions occur approximately once every 60 years, that would have put us "due" for one around 1990 - 2000.

I wonder if the Reagan era of 401Ks, housing stimulus, etc, put that off. I wonder if recessions are a necessary at all, let alone depressions. Anyway, I find it interesting from both an intellectual standpoint, and from the perspective of eradicating these pests forever from modern economies.
 
"...of eradicating these pests forever from modern economies"

not until genetically engineered "better" humans are roaming the earth
 
what happened to FV lately

Market could still crash - - - we could still get below 1100

Doesn't look like it right now, however.
 
I should have added that I am fully expecting to lose money on this entry as well. This rally will continue for probably another few days, maybe until early next week, but the gains will be meager, perhaps reaching 1200. I would be genuinely surprised to see a 1220 print.

But it is the disciplined entry.

Next resistance, 1192 - 1200
 
Normally a red NDX is a bad sign for bulls, but again, this market still has a strong upward bias and unless you are a marine in discipline-consciousnesses (like me) I would not sell short. Taking profits is a different animal, and anyone that has gains from anywhere near 1075, well, enough said.

Red NDX will be bought, as well as red SPX, for some amount of time. I don't know exactly, but the bias is still up.
 
Note to self: The way that FV reacts to the market as seen through its technical lens does not live in a projective manifold. Hence, the multiple equilibria is not fundamental, but in fact a byproduct of high dimensional cycles not in a projective manifold.

Thus, there must be some sort of higher dimensional analog to the Fold Catastrophe that allows for stable "points" (more accurately, cycles). One wonders then, if the lessons from catastrophe theory, i.e, changes in pattern, critical slowing, increasing scatter, and flickering and increasing skewness, still apply.
 
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