Kudos to MMs

nitro · Oct 4, 2011

Calibrated FV, 812.77. FV, 1027.13. Mid, 919.95.

Pekelo · Oct 4, 2011

Quote from nitro:

Out last unit 1081 SPX, +139. Flat for now.

Looking for at least a 30 handle bounce sometime this week. The question is from where.

From there. You pretty much posted this at the very low.

Now putting aside that I think your whole concept of FV is utter bullshit, I congratulate you on your recent profits and that you exited the last unit pretty close to the low.

You were also correct about the bounce, you should have played it. The 120 SPX also was a good call, so that is 3 correct calls in a row, bravo!

Mind you, if one has the patience and account size, one can make pretty much the same profits by being long...So FV or no FV, volatility rules!

GTS · Oct 5, 2011

Quote from Pekelo:

From there. You pretty much posted this at the very low.

Now putting aside that I think your whole concept of FV is utter bullshit, I congratulate you on your recent profits and that you exited the last unit pretty close to the low.

You were also correct about the bounce, you should have played it. The 120 SPX also was a good call, so that is 3 correct calls in a row, bravo!

Yes, that was some excellent trading/timing although I'm having trouble understanding the justification of going flat given that FV says we are still 100-200 points overvalued and why you didn't re-short on the bounce.

nitro · Oct 5, 2011

Don't be fooled by SPX red. This is likely to be green, say +5 to + 20 by EOD.

nitro · Oct 5, 2011

Quote from GTS:

Yes, that was some excellent trading/timing although I'm having trouble understanding the justification of going flat given that FV says we are still 100-200 points overvalued and why you didn't re-short on the bounce.

People need to read what I write instead of focusing strictly on FV and Calibrated FV (Mid.) There are multiple equilibria, of which FV has the highest eigenvalue. That means that while FV is [THE] a very strong attractor, in between here and there, markets will bounce around violently. It is a reasonable question why the multiple equilibria is not engineered into FV. The reason is that it would make it extremely volatile, to say nothing of the fact that I don't have the equations yet. That doesn't meant there isn't rigor to multiple equilibria, but [for now] it comes in the form of traditional technical analysis.

Could it have been wrong to go flat? Of course! But I am not going to beat myself up after going plus nearly 400 handles per unit. I refine and learn, and in between, I trade and do the best I can.

nitro · Oct 5, 2011

Calibrated FV, 844.30. FV, 1039.78. Mid, 942.04.

Pekelo · Oct 5, 2011

Quote from nitro:

Don't be fooled by SPX red. This is likely to be green, say +5 to + 20 by EOD.

Up 10 pts, another good call, Nitro is on the roll!!!

Hey forget FV, just give us your predictions...

nitro · Oct 5, 2011

GTS · Oct 5, 2011

Quote from nitro:

People need to read what I write instead of focusing strictly on FV and Calibrated FV (Mid.) There are multiple equilibria, of which FV has the highest eigenvalue. That means that while FV is [THE] a very strong attractor, in between here and there, markets will bounce around violently. It is a reasonable question why the multiple equilibria is not engineered into FV. The reason is that it would make it extremely volatile, to say nothing of the fact that I don't have the equations yet. That doesn't meant there isn't rigor to multiple equilibria, but [for now] it comes in the form of traditional technical analysis.

If you say so - from an external view it appears illogical to be staying out of the market when your system is screaming short and we have bounced 50 points of the recent low.
It sure smells like discretionary trading.

shortie · Oct 5, 2011

Quote from GTS:

If you say so - from an external view it appears illogical to be staying out of the market when your system is screaming short and we have bounced 50 points of the recent low.
It sure smells like discretionary trading.

FV does not provide t.

it also tends to overshoot, i.e. it is more volatile than SPX. so you can't take 840 literally.

this incarnation of FV appears to predict the direction of the long-term trend so nitro catches oscillation trading in the direction of the trend. this makes sense.

i like another version that was able to predict short-term levels at least under particular market conditions.