Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Pre-Market, so grain of salt.
FWIW: SPX 1295.11 : FV 1287.9.
Note that SPX is not open yet, and if you project where it would open (based on 3:00 to 3:15 futures movement and overnight futures movement) it is close to 1287.90.
FV has collapsed, and the market is leading the model strongly. The lead-lag relationship has flipped, but I have seen this before too. When the model is working, I don't understand why one leads the other and when. I don't know if I will ever know this although I have a wild theory. In any event, never say never.
FWIW: SPX 1295.11 : FV 1287.9.
Note that SPX is not open yet, and if you project where it would open (based on 3:00 to 3:15 futures movement and overnight futures movement) it is close to 1287.90.
FV has collapsed, and the market is leading the model strongly. The lead-lag relationship has flipped, but I have seen this before too. When the model is working, I don't understand why one leads the other and when. I don't know if I will ever know this although I have a wild theory. In any event, never say never.
FWIW: SPX 1295.09. FV 1295.45.
Convergence. In this case model was useless as it lagged and moved towards SPX. But presupposing that the model some of the time has non-random predictive value, this in itself is useful information. Very useful in regime switching systems. Think about it.
Convergence. In this case model was useless as it lagged and moved towards SPX. But presupposing that the model some of the time has non-random predictive value, this in itself is useful information. Very useful in regime switching systems. Think about it.
You know, you have two choices here. There is clearly long edge. One thing to do is simply to go long. But perhaps a better way to trade is, say your natural units is to buy 500 SPY. Well, I would buy 200 SPY, and if it goes to the natural support, buy another 300 at 1272 ish (assuming FV doesn't go premium). If SPX goes higher to FV without full position on, at least you had 200 hundred on. C'est la vie.
There is no right or wrong as far as what part of your position to have on at one time. I think that the longer the timeframe though, as FV requires to trade it, the more cautious you have to be with position sizing trades. It is a campaign.
There is no right or wrong as far as what part of your position to have on at one time. I think that the longer the timeframe though, as FV requires to trade it, the more cautious you have to be with position sizing trades. It is a campaign.