Nitro, I was referring to our markets, not the Nikkei. I definitely think the Nikkei will be lower Monday. The real trade will be spreading long spoos against short Nikkei over the next 6 months.
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Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Nitro, I was referring to our markets, not the Nikkei. I definitely think the Nikkei will be lower Monday. The real trade will be spreading long spoos against short Nikkei over the next 6 months.
Quote from Daal:
Sure but still this assumes they are a net positive over the long-run, there is no such thing as ricardian equivalence, there is some kind of free lunch in having productive capacity destroyed etc
Here is a good example. We dropped not one, but two Atom bombs on Japan in WWII completely wiping out their manufacturing sector. Over 130k died immediately from the bombs and another 130k suffered from radiation sickness and cancer, most of who eventually died. This dwarfs the current situation. As much of a tragedy as the bombing was, it launched one of the greatest bull markets in history as well as take us out of the great depression and single handedly created the middle class in this country.
Quote from Maverick74:
Here is a good example. We dropped not one, but two Atom bombs on Japan in WWII completely wiping out their manufacturing sector. Over 130k died immediately from the bombs and another 130k suffered from radiation sickness and cancer, most of who eventually died. This dwarfs the current situation. As much of a tragedy as the bombing was, it launched one of the greatest bull markets in history as well as take us out of the great depression and single handedly created the middle class in this country.
Globalization was smaller back then, furthermore US markets tend to rise 10% a year, you need to know what would have happened without the bombing. My point is if Katrina were 20x as big as it was, the market obviously would not have risen, if you dont agree, make it 500x
Quote from Maverick74:
Here is a good example. We dropped not one, but two Atom bombs on Japan in WWII completely wiping out their manufacturing sector. Over 130k died immediately from the bombs and another 130k suffered from radiation sickness and cancer, most of who eventually died. This dwarfs the current situation. As much of a tragedy as the bombing was, it launched one of the greatest bull markets in history as well as take us out of the great depression and single handedly created the middle class in this country.
Yes, everyday i hope half the USA will be destroyed via a terrorist nuclear holocaust or devastating civil war. With a population of 150 million people eradicated, this will surely make me wealthy beyond my wildest dreams.
Quote from Daal:
Globalization was smaller back then, furthermore US markets tend to rise 10% a year, you need to know what would have happened without the bombing. My point is if Katrina were 20x as big as it was, the market obviously would not have risen, if you dont agree, make it 500x
My point is tragedies are always exploited. Regardless of what our moral position is on it, it's true. One man's Katrina is another man's gold. I'm not justifying it, just calling it what it is. Capital is a zero sum game. If it leaves one area, it's going somewhere else. If Katrina were 500x worse there still would have been an opportunity to profit. What about the construction jobs created? What about building new roads, new schools. You want to get unemployment down just create a tragedy. Look all the civilian jobs that were created in the re-building of Iraq. The rebuilding of Japan. The rebuilding of Germany.
Quote from Grandluxe:
Yes, everyday i hope half the USA will be destroyed via a terrorist nuclear holocaust or devastating civil war. With a population of 150 million people eradicated, this will surely make me wealthy beyond my wildest dreams.
No, it makes you a dick with a keyboard and internet access. Go troll somewhere else.
Quote from Maverick74:
No, it makes you a dick with a keyboard and internet access. Go troll somewhere else.
No trolling. I am agreeing with you that the subsequent rebuilding will result in greater progress for the economy. The greater the destruction, the greater the rebuilding. This is a fact of life.
Sorry if you took it the wrong way
Quote from Grandluxe:
No trolling. I am agreeing with you that the subsequent rebuilding will result in greater progress for the economy. The greater the destruction, the greater the rebuilding. This is a fact of life.
Sorry if you took it the wrong way
I took offense to you "hoping" that 150 million people would be killed in a nuclear holocaust.
Quote from Maverick74:
My point is tragedies are always exploited. Regardless of what our moral position is on it, it's true. One man's Katrina is another man's gold. I'm not justifying it, just calling it what it is. Capital is a zero sum game. If it leaves one area, it's going somewhere else. If Katrina were 500x worse there still would have been an opportunity to profit. What about the construction jobs created? What about building new roads, new schools. You want to get unemployment down just create a tragedy. Look all the civilian jobs that were created in the re-building of Iraq. The rebuilding of Japan. The rebuilding of Germany.
I agree with this to some extent, I just dont agree its a net positive. I can't possibly imagine the markets rallying if 50% of the US population died on a super katrina, unless its some kind of hyperinflation bet