Kudos to MMs

[Daal]

Quote from nitro:

It might happen, even though I believe it will be a poor decision. As of next month, I expect the long bonds yields to start going higher. The short end of the curve will probably reluctantly go slightly higher too, but at some point it will be anchored to some very low rate until the FED signals it is ready to raise rates. The YC will steepen.


Ahahahahaha
Ahahahahaha

Whats so amusing, FOMC voter James Bullard is on the record saying it might be longer than that

 

[nitro]

Quote from Daal:

Whats so amusing, FOMC voter James Bullard is on the record saying it might be longer than that

We'll see.

 

[nitro]

Ellioticians say we are in wave 5 of this surge.

If true, I don't know about you, but what is the point of going for 30 handles by being long when you are risking 100 on a correction? Obviously they think the odds of the 30 vs the 100 is better than 3:1.

 

[shortie]

midday: spy -0.2%, vix -2%. i would like to interpret this as complacency.

however i believe i have seen before vix dropping around expr for no apparent reason. so, my question is whether generally vix indeed behaves aberrantly around expr and how to easily adjust for this when trying to figure out the sentiment.

 

[nitro]

Quote from shortie:

midday: spy -0.2%, vix -2%. i would like to interpret this as complacency.

however i believe i have seen before vix dropping around expr for no apparent reason. so, my question is whether generally vix indeed behaves aberrantly around expr and how to easily adjust for this when trying to figure out the sentiment.

VIX is a very complicated beast because it is pricing a linear combination of front month and next month options.

Expiration may have something to do with it as well since expiration does strange things to option prices. Things start to look infinite.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Daal:

Whats so amusing, FOMC voter James Bullard is on the record saying it might be longer than that

he could mean two things: either he is a stubborn prick and will vote rate hike down for 1.5 years no matter what the new data, or he believes he is better than Soros at predicting economy/market.

 

[nitro]

Up to the second SPX "NFV" ~1156.19

 

[nitro]

"NFV" ~1156.50

 

[nitro]

Up to the second "NFV" ~1153.99

The anti anticipators are in the market again. If this turns down hard for real (odds against it given all the indiscriminate buying we have been seeing) these anti anticipators are going to get singed.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

Up to the second "NFV" ~1153.99

The anti anticipators are in the market again. If this turns down hard for real (odds against it given all the indiscriminate buying we have been seeing) these anti anticipators are going to get singed.

Sold out ALL my longs this morning. Partly based on "NFV" being bumped by 100 handles. Also buywriter's have covered SO MUCH STINKIN DELTA that I have no desire to remain long.

Tripple Booya!!!!