Kudos to MMs

Options expiration.

"FV" has collapsed further. ~790.

Note settlements, but no auctions.

Busy schedule today: CPI, Empire, Treasury International Capital, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment, and R. Fischer speaks.

Oil futures continue high co-integration with equities.

Aggressive traders will simply sell here, even pre-market. I would wait for a break of 878, and then add on a break of 872.
 
A bit strange that Gold futures are holding up with Oil futures getting rocked. Perhaps equally strange (although it would follow) that the miners (GDX) is selling off with GLD holding up.

There is probably a stat arb in there somewhere.
 
"FV" has collapsed now at ~775. That is now at colossal levels.

If it were not for options expiration and NQ green, this could be much much lower. We are at the mini gap fill.

Confusing, and a cautious trader would wait, but this looks ominous for Monday unless something does a 180.
 
"FV" ~810.

Three and six month bill auctions today.

News front just Housing Index.

Oil futures same old same old, tail being wagged by the dog. I guess the idea of gold holding up while it's brethren are not is that gold is the only precious metal that has almost no production use in our current economy. Hence it is used purely as a fear and inflation hedge. I think this is misguided, but I am one voice.

Imo SPX is still considerably detached from "FV". Watch out late today or tomorrow for some convergence, unless surprisingly "FV" moves up to meet SPX.
 
"FV" ~ 820.

Housing starts, redbook, State Street Investor confidence Index, Gary Sterns speaks.

Only a four-week bill auction on the pipe today.

SIFs are dead, hence Oil futures are dead.


Gold futures gave up a little yesterday, but imo has a great deal more to give up. As soon as the FED raises rates, Gold is going to get blasted into oblivion imo, since at this point the inflation part of the equation is the only wind behind it's back. In the short term, it probably holds in the top of the range to just below it, say 850 to 950.

"FV" and SPX continue to be detached from each other. Money is pouring into this market, and the rally should not be confused with anything but inflows. It is the media's job to then attach meaning to the buying and give reason where there is none.
 
Haven't talked about S/R in a while, so maybe restating them is a good idea:

To the upside, 930 is pretty obvious, but as mentioned before, imo it is 942-950 that is the strong resistance.
To the downside, 878 then 872 are the supports.
 
Options Skews in most of what we trade is not bid. That lends credence to the fact that the market is complacent, and it expects that even if we selloff, it will be a slow creep down. VIX confirms this in SPX options by going well below 30 on a mild move up.

"FV" has gone up a little bit since the open, to ~830. I would not be surprised to see 930 SPX soon if this movie plays out.
 
Quote from nitro:

Options Skews in most of what we trade is not bid. That lends credence to the fact that the market is complacent, and it expects that even if we selloff, it will be a slow creep down. VIX confirms this in SPX options by going well below 30 on a mild move up.

"FV" has gone up a little bit since the open, to ~830. I would not be surprised to see 930 SPX soon if this movie plays out.
More...

Market crash after Memorial day?
 
"FV" little changed from yesterday's update, at ~ 825.

Oil futures following equities.

No treasury auctions today.

News: EIA Petroleum report, and FOMC minutes.

Gold futures almost certainly going higher on dollar continued weakness.

S/R as stated yesterday. This looks like another day where SIFs could do a lot of heavy lifting early on, and then go near to unch'ed by EOD. If the minutes hint of something unexpected...
 
Quote from shortie:

Market crash after Memorial day?
More...
I have no opinion. The market doesn't feel heavy to me at all. Light headed is more like it. Giddy on cheap wine. Only a disconnect from "FV" that could easily be converged by three days of orderly selling.
 
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