Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
"FV" ~ 895.
900 ish held. SPX is showing continued strength, in the face of an NQ that is showing signs of exhaustion. I don't need to continue to harp on it, but this dychotomy can not continue. Either NQ joins the forces, or ES gives up the ghost.
Jobless rates momentum appears to have slowed down. But did anyone really expect a bigger number than -800k jobs? For the rest of the day, very light news. Lacker speaks again later in the day, but I doubt there is any news in that.
Oil futures is the tail being wagged by the dog. Nothing new from anything that hasn't been said in the last week.
Trendline support about the same. If you are a bull, you want a close above 900. And if you like short, you want this trendline broken.
900 ish held. SPX is showing continued strength, in the face of an NQ that is showing signs of exhaustion. I don't need to continue to harp on it, but this dychotomy can not continue. Either NQ joins the forces, or ES gives up the ghost.
Jobless rates momentum appears to have slowed down. But did anyone really expect a bigger number than -800k jobs? For the rest of the day, very light news. Lacker speaks again later in the day, but I doubt there is any news in that.
Oil futures is the tail being wagged by the dog. Nothing new from anything that hasn't been said in the last week.
Trendline support about the same. If you are a bull, you want a close above 900. And if you like short, you want this trendline broken.
"FV" ~875.
Very short end of the curve bill auction towards midday.
Very very light news day.
Oil futures still in concert with equities.
Financials are about 3% from 200 day MA. I strongly recommend you put up that chart.
SPX trendline support is slightly above 900, but I think it is a close below 900 that will cause the little gap of 878 - 882 to fill. To the upside, there appears to be resistance at 830, but imo that is minor and it is 942 - 950 area that will ultimately prove to be strong resistance.
Very short end of the curve bill auction towards midday.
Very very light news day.
Oil futures still in concert with equities.
Financials are about 3% from 200 day MA. I strongly recommend you put up that chart.
SPX trendline support is slightly above 900, but I think it is a close below 900 that will cause the little gap of 878 - 882 to fill. To the upside, there appears to be resistance at 830, but imo that is minor and it is 942 - 950 area that will ultimately prove to be strong resistance.
"FV" ~850.
Imo the story of the pre-market is oil futures trading above $60.00. That market continues to confound. While I thought $60 was an easy target, never did I imagine, given the current situation, that it would be in such short amount of time. It is a bit illogical with all the supply. It must be risk aversion trade in the face of future inflation....
A four week bill auction is all there is in that arena.
Retail is probably in focus this week. Goldman-store sales today, Retail sales tomorrow, and several important retail company earnings due out the rest of week.
Same playbook as yesterday, except that the trendline continues to march forward and higher. A break of 905 is now a trendline break, but I would wait for confirmation of the 900 break with a target of the little gap fill at 878 - 882. To the upside 930, and 942-950.
Imo the story of the pre-market is oil futures trading above $60.00. That market continues to confound. While I thought $60 was an easy target, never did I imagine, given the current situation, that it would be in such short amount of time. It is a bit illogical with all the supply. It must be risk aversion trade in the face of future inflation....
A four week bill auction is all there is in that arena.
Retail is probably in focus this week. Goldman-store sales today, Retail sales tomorrow, and several important retail company earnings due out the rest of week.
Same playbook as yesterday, except that the trendline continues to march forward and higher. A break of 905 is now a trendline break, but I would wait for confirmation of the 900 break with a target of the little gap fill at 878 - 882. To the upside 930, and 942-950.
878-882 / 930 - 942.50 / 950 is quites a range...can´t you be more specific ?
Read carefully. A break of 905 with a confirmation of a break of 900 makes 878-882 odds on.Quote from ASusilovic:
878-882 / 930 - 942.50 / 950 is quites a range...can´t you be more specific ?
When you are reading what I write, the first thing you should read is the "FV" number. That gives you my bias. So if "FV" is below the market, I am aggressive to the downside, and if "FV" is above the market, I am aggressive to the longside. I don't take positions against "FV".
Therefore, to the upside here would require a huge move higher in "FV" intraday, not likely. I only mention both S/R levels to keep continuity from day to day, when the long side may not be so anti-percentage. Also, I am an options trader, and knowing both S/R levels allows me to put on spreads that (delta) lean in certain directions.
hank camp did the definative work on FV. these figure seem not to be the actual numbers used by the institutions that matter, but rather another reading mistakenly labeled FV.
surf
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/Daytrading/commentary/lftw/09302005-46122.cfm
surf
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/Daytrading/commentary/lftw/09302005-46122.cfm
thanks for the clarification and kind words. here is a snippet for readers of your thread who have no clue what we are talking about:
<i>Dave: We hear daytraders talk a lot about Fair Value. Can you elaborate on this concept and how it relates to program trading?
Hank: Fair Value is a term used to describe the relationship between something like an index futures contract and that contract's underlying cash index. The major component in fair value is the interest rate charged for buying stocks in that index today and then carrying them until some date into the future. That "cost of carry" is really what Fair Value is all about. And once you know that value, then you can design computer programs to take advantage of any discrepancy between two markets such as index futures prices and the underlying stock prices in that index. That type of program trading is called index arbitrage and accounts for about 9% of all program trading.
Dave: Is there a formula to determine fair value?
Hank: Yes. The actual formula for Fair Value is very simple. It is basically the value of S&P 500 Index, or any other index you use, plus the interest you pay your broker or banker to buy all of the stocks in that index, minus all of the dividend checks you receive from the stocks in it. That is a simplification but you see the point. Fair Value is basically the net cost to carry stocks until expiration.
Dave: Why not just rely on the fair value listed on CNBC?
Hank: Some traders indeed do for the NYSE opening. CNBC shows where the Spoos are trading before the NYSE opens and how that price relates to today's Fair Value. For example, CNBC may say that the Spoos are trading up a dollar or up 1.50 above fair value. That in theory will cause the Dow Jones to be up immediately right after the opening. Of course the Spoos can drop that same 1.50 in a heartbeat on their opening, dropp......<i/>