Perhaps. There are many of these momentum style traders who have made fantastic returns (Zanger, Minervini, Krell, Kullamagi, etc), some of which have been audited. I suppose one could chalk it up to BS, and move on. I find it more productive to assume it is legit, study what they are doing and apply it to my own trading. So far the results are promising.
I hope you don't mind that I added the boldface to your post.
I 100% agree with you. Frankly, I find it downright astonishing that on this, a
trading forum, there are so many posters who are skeptical of success.
The first Trading book I read after I decided to get serious about making some money from the stock market was Nicolas Darvas's
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market.
Like you, I assumed it was an honest and accurate of account of him having started with a $37,000 account, and then immediately, within just a matter of days, he lost 25% of his capital. He had invested in a steel stock based on fundamental analysis. He was left with $27,782.43.
Desperate to recover his loss, he studied the stock tables for hours every day and he "watched all the active stocks to see if they offered any escape" from his all but certain financial ruin. You see, he had mortgaged property and taken advances on his weekly income to fund his trading account.
It was by watching the
active stocks that Darvas came to hit upon using price and volume to select trade candidates. This was in November of 1955,
three years after he was first bitten by the stock market bug.
Over the next two years he traded small and developed the "box method" for which he has gained immortality among students of the market and market history.
In November of 1957, he had made up all but $889 of his $9000+ loss. And it was from this point, after a full 5 years of going from consistent losing trader to consistent winning trader, that his famous run where he made $2,000,000 in the stock market began.
My real beginning as a trader was simply to emulate Darvas's approach. It worked out extremely well for me. I literally used the Barons weekly biggest gainers with volume table to find stocks that were going up week after week. Then I'd wait for a consolidation, and I'd place a goo til cancelled buy stop a dime or a quarter above the stock's high price.
I sure am glad I didn't insist on seeing his audit trail before deciding to see whether or not there could be any merit to his approach for myself. I decided that the only way to know for sure was just to do the work.
Everyone wants to be rich but no one wants to do any work.
Right on, brother. And those most complaining and doubting just have not done the work. They will come back at me and say "I have dont eh work! No one has worked hard than me and I still can't do it, and if I can't do it, no one can do it!"
But they are kidding themselves. They haven't done the work. And I will tell you how you know they haven't done the work: Because they are failures and they are broke.
Kullamägi's breakout strategy is, in nearly all general particulars, Darvas's box method. Kristjan may use candle charts and moving averages while Darvas relied on weekly stock tables in Barrons and his broker's telegrams of the daily OHLC of the stocks Darvas had identified from his examination of those stock tables. But if Darvas were still with us today, there would probably be little discernible difference in their trading methods if one were to put them side by side.