Kennedy Leaving SCOTUS

[Slartibartfast]

So you think that we are on the road to Sharia law?

Yeah, conservatives in the US are yuge advocates of Sharia law. That makes sense.

 

[destriero]

This is why we voted for Trump over Clinton.
This moment - right here - right now.
With Trump if we get another Gorsuch... he will get re elected...
With Clinton we would have been Venezuela in a generation.

You would have voted for Hitler. And there is ZERO probability of confirmation.

 

[Wallet]

There goes the republic

God bless the Republic.

 

[Wallet]

Need to get this guy through quickly. Have name next week and submit it. Expedited Senate hearing and vote. This is potentially as big as blocking Garland. It cannot be allowed to drag into the midterms.

Exactly. Like the Dems wouldn't do the same. Trump is not in the last year of his term, even so this is a once in a generation shot.

MAGA!

 

[Wallet]

You guys need to keep in mind that there is no requirement in the Constitution that a supreme court justice be a lawyer . He might appoint Sean Hannity.

Also, there is actually no requirement that a justice be an American citizen, so perhaps Piezo will live to see the day when we have more Canadians on the Court- and he would argue that that is just what the Founders intended.

Please no. Trump needs to take the high road and nominate a conservative judge, McConnell needs to have the expedite process ready.

 

[bone]

There's a school of thought that the Democrats really screwed the pooch in terms of timing and opposition to taking up a vote on the Neil Gorsuch confirmation. Gorsuch had a Lilly white background and judicial record. His personal and professional references and credentials were impeccable.

The Senate rules have been changed back to where they were 15 years ago - no fillibuster allowed for SCOTUS nominations - it's a straight up or down vote. Harry Reid started the journey down this road when he changed the Senate rules for Federal Judge confirmations back in 2013 - and Lindsey Graham famously told him that in due time he would rue the day. And true to form, after Democrats last year threatened to filibuster the Gursuch nomination - Lindsey Graham indeed reminded Senator McConnell that the chit was due. The "nuclear option" that Reid started with the Federal Judge nominations in 2013 was reciprocated in kind for the SCOTUS nominations in 2017. Senate rules no longer allow for a SCOTUS nomination filibuster.

Trump's SCOTUS nomination to fill Judge Kennedy's vacant seat will be confirmed on a straight-up-and-down vote.

And that's why you will see Trump send forth his nomination very quickly to the Senate floor.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/senate-neil-gorsuch-nuclear-option-236937

https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/08/opinions/how-we-got-to-gorsuch-shapiro/index.html

 

[jem]

another thought filled post from a lefty... Godwins law in the opening post for the win. Fricken ridiculous statement.


as far as confirmation... McConnell said the vote will happen in the fall. So that looks like a much greater probability than zero of confirmation.
Looks like the nominee may need McCain, Manchin, Heitkamp or Donnelly.

If the dems don't let one of their own cave...I would expect a massive turnout for republican Senators in November. So again it looks like a greater than zero chance. Not saying its 51 percent but much greater than zero.

By the way I would have placed a bet that a good nominee would have been confirmed... but I just put you on ignore.... so we won't be able to talk about the chances of confirmation once that nominee is selected.

You would have voted for Hitler. And there is ZERO probability of confirmation.

 

[destriero]

another thought filled post from a lefty... Godwins law in the opening post for the win. Fricken ridiculous statement.


as far as confirmation... McConnell said the vote will happen in the fall. So that looks like a much greater probability than zero of confirmation.
Looks like the nominee may need McCain, Manchin, Heitkamp or Donnelly.

If the dems don't let one of their own cave...I would expect a massive turnout for republican Senators in November. So again it looks like a greater than zero chance. Not saying its 51 percent but much greater than zero.

By the way I would have placed a bet that a good nominee would have been confirmed... but I just put you on ignore.... so we won't be able to talk about the chances of confirmation once that nominee is selected.

Your prognostications are like 0/100. Recall your GDP at 5% bullshit? Right, on ignore until you forget your BS and inadvertently reply.

 

[jem]

1. I did not say it would grow at 5% I cited the Fed and when commenting I wrote ) "if"


2. As far as my real prognostications... here is my biggest below... and I am not sure anyone else in the country called it this well... I got the margin of victory and the fact trump could win even if Hillary had then national vote if it were close per nate silver's simulations...


https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-without-the-algo.301548/page-84#post-4355689


its way too close to call. The algo was quite satisfied with the templates after the herding. So its looks like Hillary has a slight national lead overall by about 1 to 2 points after unskewing and averaging.

So its too close to call.

I find myself and the algo agreeing with Nate Silver's simulations lately.

Because most the national polls unskewed during the herding last week I now see Nate;s work as making sense. Instead of garbage in garbage out as it was before the herding... his work is now very "tradeable".



If you tell me who wins florida, colorado, and Pennsylvania... that is what I will be watching.

Your prognostications are like 0/100. Recall your GDP at 5% bullshit? Right, on ignore until you forget your BS and inadvertently reply.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

another thought filled post from a lefty... Godwins law in the opening post for the win. Fricken ridiculous statement.


as far as confirmation... McConnell said the vote will happen in the fall. So that looks like a much greater probability than zero of confirmation.
Looks like the nominee may need McCain, Manchin, Heitkamp or Donnelly.

If the dems don't let one of their own cave...I would expect a massive turnout for republican Senators in November. So again it looks like a greater than zero chance. Not saying its 51 percent but much greater than zero.

By the way I would have placed a bet that a good nominee would have been confirmed... but I just put you on ignore.... so we won't be able to talk about the chances of confirmation once that nominee is selected.

I can fully acknowledge that the republican edge when it comes to confirming a judicial nominee is mighty thin which gives a lot of senators- both republican and dem- a chance to play games or stick it to trump. And as I said earlier, I am realistic about all that so let's just get on with it.

Having said that, it is not a pretty picture for the dem gameplayers either. By all means, let us not forget that there are TEN democratic senators up for reelection this year in states THAT WERE WON BY TRUMP.

So let's war-game this out a bit. The projected schedule for when a nominee might come up for a vote could be mid-september to mid-october, give or take. ie. right before the mid-term. So that means ten senators in trump country would be going into their elections with a vote on their record either for or against something where Trump will be taking names, and the voters will be taking names to see who did and did not vote to support Trump's nominee.

Yup. As I said, it aint pretty for those dem senators either, so let em have their little fun but come fall they better have done some smart thinking and have figured out whether they are with Chuck Schumer or Trump when push comes to shove.