Keep An Eye On CBLI...

CBLI Cleveland Biolabs Inc (NASDAQ CM) 11.60 -1.78 ( -13.30%)

Well BioBottom you have fallen victim to a couple stonedinvestor mistakes. (1) the whole gloating thing
(2) The saying I'm holding this forever thing (3) the sell the news phenomena which even after all these mf*ing years I still can't get down (4) the little too close to the knowledge problem where the idea keeps you in despite management or execution...

I remember last year kicking around a bio called Akorn they recently moved to the nasdaq so they are hard to find AKRX. > They had a pill they were making for the Gov which if you take after radiation has hit the area you are protected... ever run across that?

I will look up ACHN. Why not take a peek at XOMA or HTI?
~stoney.

ps many of my picks hibernate before exploading it's the sign of really good research. The key is I cover so many damn stocks I can rotate to the top stories I am familiar with so it looks like each day I am discovering something great and new! So don't be taken aback by any day trade mentality here on ET. I always hold a good couple months-- it's stretching things out to a year that's becoming increasingly difficult to do.
 
it happens every time ... yesterday when CBLI was rocketing up to $13.99 i was watching the L2 and T&S and a friend called me and i told him how much money i had "made" (and i'm not unhappy about getting out around $11.60 for the shares i could sell today). when i feel like that i should be selling. but you guys sold from that same gut feeling, only you did it earlier than i got that feeling.

anyway, it's still a good gain from the $6.09 i paid for the total holding.

my point? when i get the giddy feeling that i CAN'T BELIEVE HOW HIGH it's showing for Total Portfoloio Value, i should be selling. i should have been selling it at $13 and i had the chance to do so today, $1.40 higher than what i got out at.

why ACHN? i find stocks by looking at the daily Biggest Losers and read the stories. pretty funny to see CBLI there right now, down 14%: http://finance.yahoo.com/losers?e=us ...

ACHN went from $19 to $8 because a drug in P2 was effective at a low dose, but they're pursuing a better choice with Gilead as their partner.

anyway, i bought CBLI when i heard about it after trading HEPH a few times, not because of any fall. it's only been trading since last October, so i accumulated on dips based purely on the expectation that they would see a breakout like what happened t with HEPH, which culminated yesterday and today with all the trades over $13.00.

and how the heck can you know when to sell? you have to wait till it starts collapsing and then you have that sinking feeling that you should have sold sooner. i see it's been bouncing around with some support at $11.50. that's still 88% over my purchase price. i was just hoping that the steady and heavy buying pressure on NO NEWS (and Barrons and WSJ don't count), i.e. compared to what 60 Minutes did for HEPH taking it over $10. With the Roth conference coming up, i was EXPECTING a BOMBSHELL and all i got was a dud. i thought that the slow and steady accumulation with no news and a stock under most people's radar screen ... (aha!) meant that there was something the big money knew that us small investors didn't know.

why the aha? because MAYBE it WAS simply being MENTIONED in Barrons and WSJ that got some biotech hedge fund or even a small-cap biotech mutual fund interested in building a position.

Even nuke safety professionals have never heard of Protectan. I was in before the crowd. And just like i wrote earlier, it was the NASA grant that made it more juicy than HEPH ever was.

T That radiation drug company you mentioned? I never heard of it.

so which is worse, selling too soon, or missing the top? i think i'm better off holding until today.

also. i don't believe that Barrons had ANYTHING to do with the recent 5-day rally to $13.99. if anything, it was the stupid article by Steve Levine in WSJ and that was back on 1/25/07 and it hardly made the stock budge.

the rally to $13.99 started when they announced their annual meeting. big deal. every company (unless they're SEC-delinquent like CYBX was) holds annual meetings.

P.S. in thinking about it, i was ANGRY when i wrote that i will sell the rest of my shares tomorrow when T+3 arrives. i think the company is on to something that REALLY IS big. and the 30% remaining is still a substantial position ... it's no longer HUGE, though.
 
P.P.S. if it falls back to $7 i will start accumlating again. i should not let my ANGER at his sophistry make me pass on making more money from this thing. i should be HAPPY i made that money from this (and i really am happy to have bought it below $7) because i think that will be the support point for future trading. SO. as a nuclear safety pro who worked 20 years for govment agencies as a consultant, would i reccommend buying CBLI @ $7. HELL YES!

i think it will be falling back to support, eventually.

but there was nothing in today's talk that justifies a $13 share price RIGHT NOW ... so i may just hold the remaining 30% of the shares if i can't get at least $12 for them Friday. i don't know. i need to think about it and revisit my evaluation of HEPH.
 
Your scanning for stock method is really quite silly and of course brilliant at the same time. i never would have thought to look at a biggest loser, I'm constantly filing away only positive winning information. ET can be a good learning board look what you already discovered:
>it happens every time ... yesterday when CBLI was rocketing up to $13.99 i was watching the L2 and T&S and a friend called me and i told him how much money i had "made" (and i'm not unhappy about getting out around $11.60 for the shares i could sell today). when i feel like that i should be selling. EXACTLY especially that last part about being damn happy with $11.60.

There really is nothing wrong with handing a stock off to someone else for the last and riskiest leg of a journey. You may be right about the WSJ story but dear old stoney who was aware of the company only got serious when he saw the reaction the day after Barrons came out.

Now be careful here! > P.S. in thinking about it, i was ANGRY when i wrote that i will sell the rest of my shares tomorrow when T+3 arrives. i think the company is on to something that REALLY IS big. and the 30% remaining is still a substantial position ... it's no longer HUGE, though.

This is the next stage of the grieving process. The re evaluate I was right in the first place. Best to say the T3 restriction has left it up top fate and trade em out the first minute of the trading day when you are allowed to. CBLI is going back to $10.
 
my stock scanning method is not silly. it's based on SCIENCE! the field of study is called Behavioral Finance. it's based on the FACT that markets OVERREACT. and as any stock trader knows, they fall faster than they rise. so i look for the biggest losers of the day, preferably one that lost 30% or more of its value overnight for NO GOOD REASON. i pit my wits against the herd. USUALLY the herd is right, but not ALWAYS. so i have to read the news and see what I THINK. if the selloff was unwarranted, then i think about buying. i've done it so many times i can't count them.

you want to see my latest buy? look at TFR. ladies sexy clothes from Israel. i bought some at $9.00 earlier this week when i read the earnings and concluded that the market had overreacted. what can i say? i like sexy clothes. and they've been paying a healthy dividend in case it becomes an investment instead of a speculation. and, again, i can't sell till the shares hit my account, but look at the 5-day chart. there is nothing at all silly in my stock picking method.

as far as selling at market on the open ... i don't know. i think you're wrong! look at the trading today after the talk. SOMEONE wants shares and there is support at $11.50.

show me something on the chart or a technical indicator besides my "declining close" that signals it will go to $10 or lower short term. even if (as i expect) the close today will be lower than yesterday's $13.38, a topping-out process can take a few days.

this stock practically doubled in, what 6 days of trading?

there IS a reason.

are you willing to go out on a limb and bet that it will be $10 tomorrow? then put your money where your mouth is and short it right now for an easy $1.60+.
 
BioBottom! You are answering your own questions:

this stock practically doubled in, what 6 days of trading?

That doesn't always mean something is up. It can also mean something is about to 1/2 retrace.
 
then why don't you try to short it if you're so sure it's going to $10?

there is a REASON it had a stronger rally than HEPH has EVER HAD. what that reason is, i don't know. but someone knows. and they're STILL accumulating.

are you basing your sell signal on my Declining Close indicator?

that may be VERY premature. the market has not YET closed!

we MIGHT not get that sell signal after all. and now that my investment is "reasonable" in size, i don't mind holding it even if it does retrace to $10. in fact, depending on the trading, i may buy back the shares i sold today, or at least half of them, if i can get them for $7 ... which is where i see support on the chart. you know, resistance becomes support. yada yada.
 
You have a nice profit, by the time your T3 is up it's going to be $10.50 anyway-- then you can decide if you want to hang around fore the next 50 cents.
 
again. you're not answering my challenge to put your money where your mouth is.

you said that you have a time-frame of months to a year. well, so do i.

if you're so good at predicting tomorrow's exact stock prices, why are you wasting your time writing these messages while the market is open?

why aren't you trying to locate shares to short?

and, again, show me a sell indicator.

what if the reason for the selloff today is nervous MoMos who bought a company they don't understand and don't know why it doubled in 6 days?

i'm looking at the T&S and all i see is SLOW AND STEADY buying ... the EXACT same kind of buying that we've had for the last 5 days!

The nervous selling has stopped. It's ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that the patient buyer who took it up to $13.99 may be very happy to have us all fooled with the Declining Close signal and be laughing as it triggers more nervous selling at market on Friday's open.

Support has moved from $11.50 up to $11.60. and selling has essentially stopped. it's quoting 11.66 to 11.80 now.
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

You have a nice profit, by the time your T3 is up it's going to be $10.50 anyway-- then you can decide if you want to hang around fore the next 50 cents.
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why? because of the Let Your Winners Run adage.
 
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