Keep An Eye On CBLI...
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
Sorry to hear that the few people i can find on any message boards who have admitted to owning CBLI have posted that they sold it recently because it was going up too fast for them.
Based strictly on my knowledge of this specialized area of nuclear safety and the health effects of radiation, after the NASA grant was announced to develop Protectan for astronauts on space missions, i bought a big position a few months ago averaging @ $6.09 and tried scalping it for an intra-day whip-saw yesterday but all i accomplished was racking up a few hundred bucks of positive cash and having T+3 apply to bar freeriding on 30% of my position for an intra-day scalp tomorrow (those scalped resettle" on Friday so then i'm home free on that score) ... and i have enough cash in that IRA to cover me and avoid the free-ride on a Thursday scalp of at least 15% of the position without a freeride.
This is the biggest gainer i've ever had for a stock that's (now) my biggest position ... ever.
The main advantage to Protectan over Neumune is that Protectan is supposed to be radio-protective for both low and high doses of radiation, and, unlike Neumune which affects only hematopeosis, Protectan could, theoretically at least, lower the (theoretical) incremental cancer risk from low doses of radiation (for all cancers and all organs), as well as protecting those given large acute doses to bone marrow and GI tract. I don't see why it should not work for lowering all the early health effects, from prodromal vomiting ... all the way through to pulmonary edema from inhaled alpha/beta emitters causing lung dose that exceeds the 8-15 Gy LD50 ... but it's not gonna help with CNS damage/bleeding from radiation at the 20 Gy level ... they're ROASTED if the brain swells up from radiation.
Anyway, i'm writing that in case there is anyone else here who understands the health physics and maybe we can discuss the science as well as the trading.
The "trigger" for the recent BLASTOFF seems to be CBLI's announcement that the anti-aptotics also stimulate stem cell production. Are there any MDs with a health physics background here who can imagine the possibilities?
With 11 M shares and daily volume rising with the daily percentage rises, CBLI could be in the very early stages of a rally that could easily take it up to a market cap of $200 M, or $18-$19/share, and that's with no "overshoot" from MoMo players riding this Magic Bullet Train.
It's not too late to get back on this rocket ship and both of my tech analysis "bibles" by Murphy and Magee/Edwards say that a stock can remain "overbought" for very long periods in a sustained rally. Whoever is accumulating wants as many shares as they can get, and they're shaking out stops by taking it down (by my calculations) up to 9% on an percentage basis for a trailing stop. The buying is slow and strong and the volume is going up with the daily percentage rise--this will be my first spreadsheet written to follow a stock and help me decide when to buy and sell it.
I can "daytrade" using the "unsettled" 70% of my position on Thursday by selling it and hoping to buy it back (hoping for a scalp of at least a buck, $1, on it) on an intra-day swing.
You guys here are supposed to be able to do better than sell a strongly rallying stock simply because it's rallying.
I firmly believe that the fundamentals will take CBLI to a market cap of AT LEAST $200 M because that seems to be the minimum typical size for a biotech with one or two very promising candidates. If just 25% of their ideas make it to an FDA P2 trial, this stock has more value in it than the $2.4 B acquisition of NRPH by Shire based on their amino-acid trick that didn't even get them a C-III statis for the new Adderall.
Anway, enough gloating.
Can someone please tell me a better indicator that the upward trend is AT LEAST PAUSING ... than the stock's closing lower than it did the previous day on the OLHC? I tried to find the page number but it was under trend reversal somewhere in Murphy. An trend will signal that it's ending when there is a decrease in the close from one trading day to the next.
I'm holding onto the bulk of these shares but i can't know until the day's close what it closes it. So that "indicator" would signal me to get out with a market sell on the next open. Is there ANOTHER (intra-day) indicator i should be looking at to sell some of my position in the hope of buying it back cheaper on an intra-day retrace?
TIA!
BBF
Based strictly on my knowledge of this specialized area of nuclear safety and the health effects of radiation, after the NASA grant was announced to develop Protectan for astronauts on space missions, i bought a big position a few months ago averaging @ $6.09 and tried scalping it for an intra-day whip-saw yesterday but all i accomplished was racking up a few hundred bucks of positive cash and having T+3 apply to bar freeriding on 30% of my position for an intra-day scalp tomorrow (those scalped resettle" on Friday so then i'm home free on that score) ... and i have enough cash in that IRA to cover me and avoid the free-ride on a Thursday scalp of at least 15% of the position without a freeride.
This is the biggest gainer i've ever had for a stock that's (now) my biggest position ... ever.
The main advantage to Protectan over Neumune is that Protectan is supposed to be radio-protective for both low and high doses of radiation, and, unlike Neumune which affects only hematopeosis, Protectan could, theoretically at least, lower the (theoretical) incremental cancer risk from low doses of radiation (for all cancers and all organs), as well as protecting those given large acute doses to bone marrow and GI tract. I don't see why it should not work for lowering all the early health effects, from prodromal vomiting ... all the way through to pulmonary edema from inhaled alpha/beta emitters causing lung dose that exceeds the 8-15 Gy LD50 ... but it's not gonna help with CNS damage/bleeding from radiation at the 20 Gy level ... they're ROASTED if the brain swells up from radiation.
Anyway, i'm writing that in case there is anyone else here who understands the health physics and maybe we can discuss the science as well as the trading.
The "trigger" for the recent BLASTOFF seems to be CBLI's announcement that the anti-aptotics also stimulate stem cell production. Are there any MDs with a health physics background here who can imagine the possibilities?
With 11 M shares and daily volume rising with the daily percentage rises, CBLI could be in the very early stages of a rally that could easily take it up to a market cap of $200 M, or $18-$19/share, and that's with no "overshoot" from MoMo players riding this Magic Bullet Train.
It's not too late to get back on this rocket ship and both of my tech analysis "bibles" by Murphy and Magee/Edwards say that a stock can remain "overbought" for very long periods in a sustained rally. Whoever is accumulating wants as many shares as they can get, and they're shaking out stops by taking it down (by my calculations) up to 9% on an percentage basis for a trailing stop. The buying is slow and strong and the volume is going up with the daily percentage rise--this will be my first spreadsheet written to follow a stock and help me decide when to buy and sell it.
I can "daytrade" using the "unsettled" 70% of my position on Thursday by selling it and hoping to buy it back (hoping for a scalp of at least a buck, $1, on it) on an intra-day swing.
You guys here are supposed to be able to do better than sell a strongly rallying stock simply because it's rallying.
I firmly believe that the fundamentals will take CBLI to a market cap of AT LEAST $200 M because that seems to be the minimum typical size for a biotech with one or two very promising candidates. If just 25% of their ideas make it to an FDA P2 trial, this stock has more value in it than the $2.4 B acquisition of NRPH by Shire based on their amino-acid trick that didn't even get them a C-III statis for the new Adderall.
Anway, enough gloating.
Can someone please tell me a better indicator that the upward trend is AT LEAST PAUSING ... than the stock's closing lower than it did the previous day on the OLHC? I tried to find the page number but it was under trend reversal somewhere in Murphy. An trend will signal that it's ending when there is a decrease in the close from one trading day to the next.
I'm holding onto the bulk of these shares but i can't know until the day's close what it closes it. So that "indicator" would signal me to get out with a market sell on the next open. Is there ANOTHER (intra-day) indicator i should be looking at to sell some of my position in the hope of buying it back cheaper on an intra-day retrace?
TIA!
BBF
This is genius!! I am going to read up on it right now and I'll get back to you! Please stop in on my thread in Chit Chat and leave a post.
Neumane is 5-androstenediol. Could you give me a link or the chemical name for Protectan?
Do you know about Melanotan-II??
Mr Biobottom a couple things. One. Where were you a week ago? Two everything you have pointed out is well known to the stonedinvestor-- in fact the radiation/ gov link you talk about is not about astronauts at all! CBLI has the only anti serum solution to the nasty polonium 104? I forget the name-- whatever Mr. Putin in Russia is having his enemies ofted with. There is stem cell possibilities here as well as with many other companies.
You got a nice price to start and without the Barrons story you would still be at that price. As good as the CBLI pipeline may be it was going nowhere due to lack of real financial catalysts. It's great to work on stem cell stuff but in the real world the funding and the applicants don't bring in any $. It's all about partnerships for the baby bios and it is unlikely CBLI will find one for the end markets they are targeting. Why the sprint up? Well yours truly has been pointing towards their upcoming shareholder meeting as a catalyst but when we hit my price target before that-- I stepped off and left a fat $2 on the table.
What can you look for to get off? I don't think you will get an obvious spike and reversal day you'll just have to hope it basis in here somewhere and doesn't do a free fall. As I stated above Barrons likes to come back and knock stocks they pump if they move too much so look out for that. It's never gloating to say you did well with a pick-- but you are talking to someone with 20 years experience in the biotech field ( buying them anyway) so I think I'm fairly qualified to realize a runaway train when I see one.
Now Mr. Bio Bottom. Rather than give us a stock already up and part of OUR bottom line this year, how about a name yet to explode?
You got a nice price to start and without the Barrons story you would still be at that price. As good as the CBLI pipeline may be it was going nowhere due to lack of real financial catalysts. It's great to work on stem cell stuff but in the real world the funding and the applicants don't bring in any $. It's all about partnerships for the baby bios and it is unlikely CBLI will find one for the end markets they are targeting. Why the sprint up? Well yours truly has been pointing towards their upcoming shareholder meeting as a catalyst but when we hit my price target before that-- I stepped off and left a fat $2 on the table.
What can you look for to get off? I don't think you will get an obvious spike and reversal day you'll just have to hope it basis in here somewhere and doesn't do a free fall. As I stated above Barrons likes to come back and knock stocks they pump if they move too much so look out for that. It's never gloating to say you did well with a pick-- but you are talking to someone with 20 years experience in the biotech field ( buying them anyway) so I think I'm fairly qualified to realize a runaway train when I see one.
Now Mr. Bio Bottom. Rather than give us a stock already up and part of OUR bottom line this year, how about a name yet to explode?
i wasn't here because i didn't know you guys were talking about it. it came up with Google yesterday. i'm no longer a day-trader because it requires too much Valium.
where was i? holding on to my shares. i was into it a long time before Mr. Litvivenko's polonioum poisoning. Steve Levine's WSJ article listing Chemet in the same category as Neumune was idiotic. Any HP (health physicist) knows that for heavy metals like Pu you give EDTA and for cesium and thallium you give Prussian Blue. They had that one CORRECT on the TV show NCIS Tuesday night, which i had THOUGHT might have been the boost behind the rally, but there is no need for Protectan with things like thallium when there is a standard remedy already in use. See http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/prussian_blue/Q&A.htm
Like i said, i bought CBLI when i saw that NASA was funding them to protect astronauts on long-term space missions. You can find the news at CBLI website.
The way i see the trading action recently is that it's HUGELY bullish for the long term, which this investment is for me, because i understand the science. I used to work for DOE and NRC on nuke safety.
Run a standard point & figure chart and it gives a long-term price objective of $39. I'll settle for half of that, and i'll get it this year.
As far as day-trading it goes, like i said i don't have the nerves for it. I think my "indicator" of a short-term trend reversal posted last night was VERY GOOD. IF it closes today below $13.38 we will see a trend reversal, which is happening as i write. oh well. like i said, i'm in this as an INVESTMENT and there are a lot of MoMO players who bought the stock because of the silly Barron's and WSJ article (which QUOTED Gudkov).
Oh. well. the buyiong has been so strong that i think the BIG MONEY who bought those 18 K two blocks AH @ $18.38 will not be going away because of anything silly Barrons has to say about CBLI.
back to the technicals, today is the first real bit of profit taking we've seen in the past week. but whoever is accumulating is still BUYING.
where was i? holding on to my shares. i was into it a long time before Mr. Litvivenko's polonioum poisoning. Steve Levine's WSJ article listing Chemet in the same category as Neumune was idiotic. Any HP (health physicist) knows that for heavy metals like Pu you give EDTA and for cesium and thallium you give Prussian Blue. They had that one CORRECT on the TV show NCIS Tuesday night, which i had THOUGHT might have been the boost behind the rally, but there is no need for Protectan with things like thallium when there is a standard remedy already in use. See http://www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/prussian_blue/Q&A.htm
Like i said, i bought CBLI when i saw that NASA was funding them to protect astronauts on long-term space missions. You can find the news at CBLI website.
The way i see the trading action recently is that it's HUGELY bullish for the long term, which this investment is for me, because i understand the science. I used to work for DOE and NRC on nuke safety.
Run a standard point & figure chart and it gives a long-term price objective of $39. I'll settle for half of that, and i'll get it this year.
As far as day-trading it goes, like i said i don't have the nerves for it. I think my "indicator" of a short-term trend reversal posted last night was VERY GOOD. IF it closes today below $13.38 we will see a trend reversal, which is happening as i write. oh well. like i said, i'm in this as an INVESTMENT and there are a lot of MoMO players who bought the stock because of the silly Barron's and WSJ article (which QUOTED Gudkov).
Oh. well. the buyiong has been so strong that i think the BIG MONEY who bought those 18 K two blocks AH @ $18.38 will not be going away because of anything silly Barrons has to say about CBLI.
back to the technicals, today is the first real bit of profit taking we've seen in the past week. but whoever is accumulating is still BUYING.
i think yesterday or today will be the reversal day for short-term. i'm calling it now. of course it's easy to include yesterday.
but that's what a declining close is.
but the Roth presentation is starting in 0 minutes. back later.
but that's what a declining close is.
but the Roth presentation is starting in 0 minutes. back later.
oops. with a degree in math i should be able to figure the time diff but i missed the open and haven't had my coffee yet. almost!
the main thing about this company is the HUGE BUYING. this is much stronger than what popped HEPH over the 60 Minutes fluff.
there is some SERIOUS money buying here and i SHOULD have not cancelled my trailing stop % order that would have triggered at $12.95 today. oh well ...
i don't know if my stoick picks have enough "action" for you guys to post my picks.
after all, i waited 3-4 months for CBLI to perk up.
Roth presentation starts in 52 minutes and will be selling into into any strength today.
anyone want to discuss the technicals of TOPPING? today looks to be the highest volume so far after those one-day 1 M-share spikes we saw to $9.78 and then the second one. i forget. i'm still hoping that this stock will see a retrace over $13 before the day is over. call me a fool if you want, but for at least this stock, i followed the old adage to the T and Let My Winners Run.
OK. Here's my ?. If yesterday/today IS THE TOP (as eems to be playing out), what is a realistic retrace top from a short term indicator?
how 'bout a contest? right now last trade was 11:11 @ $11.98, 1300 shares. what will be the highest it gets today?
closest to the actual wins a prize to be announced.
the main thing about this company is the HUGE BUYING. this is much stronger than what popped HEPH over the 60 Minutes fluff.
there is some SERIOUS money buying here and i SHOULD have not cancelled my trailing stop % order that would have triggered at $12.95 today. oh well ...
i don't know if my stoick picks have enough "action" for you guys to post my picks.
after all, i waited 3-4 months for CBLI to perk up.
Roth presentation starts in 52 minutes and will be selling into into any strength today.
anyone want to discuss the technicals of TOPPING? today looks to be the highest volume so far after those one-day 1 M-share spikes we saw to $9.78 and then the second one. i forget. i'm still hoping that this stock will see a retrace over $13 before the day is over. call me a fool if you want, but for at least this stock, i followed the old adage to the T and Let My Winners Run.
OK. Here's my ?. If yesterday/today IS THE TOP (as eems to be playing out), what is a realistic retrace top from a short term indicator?
how 'bout a contest? right now last trade was 11:11 @ $11.98, 1300 shares. what will be the highest it gets today?
closest to the actual wins a prize to be announced.
hey ... you could make money off it too if if your broker will let you short it. will they let you short it?
ok. i was buying ACHN very heavily below $8.50. in the last week.
ok. update. i sold all my shares of CBLI which i'm allowed sell (70% of my CBLI position due to T+3 after the Tuesday's "scalp" daytrade) after the Roth presentation because he LIED about the # of people who would be exposed to lethal levels of radiation after a "dirty bomb" attack, which is a radiological dispersal device (professionals call them RDDs), not a low-yield, 1 kiloton, "improvised" nuclear weapon.
they cannot sue me for defamation of the company on this message board because i offered them my free professional services and am a credentialed expert in the field of assessing the consequences of radiological releases. if a national laboratory were to do the calculations for DOE or HHS, i was one of the people who would do them. he used SOPHISTRY to equate a low-yield nuke which DOES have a 1 kT effective threshold to the "dirty bomb" as the term is used in the common press as well as by nuclear safety professionals. this makes me mad when people like that LIE about the consequences of potential radiological releases ... because he obviously knows better due to his credentials and experience. Gudkov is the scientist, and Feinstein said he's the "entrepeneur." well, no wonder they did not reply to my e-mails. they are selling the investment community a Bill of Goods about the Dirty Bomb thing, though ... long term i think the stock will be seeing $13 again because there is always a Greater Fool.
it is a LIE to equate a "dirty bomb" with the 1-kT low-yield nuke weapon he discussed. a "dirty bomb" releases radioactive materials during a conventional HE explosion to disperse radioactive materials. if anybody was close enough to a dirty bomb to get a radiation dose that high, they would be blown to bits by the explosion, and not a candidate for drug treatment because they would be dead due to "disassembly."
i had a good gain on the shares bought @ $6.09 and cannot sell the rest until tomorrow. if MRS. MONEY is buying tomorrow i'll be dumping the rest of it.
they cannot sue me for defamation of the company on this message board because i offered them my free professional services and am a credentialed expert in the field of assessing the consequences of radiological releases. if a national laboratory were to do the calculations for DOE or HHS, i was one of the people who would do them. he used SOPHISTRY to equate a low-yield nuke which DOES have a 1 kT effective threshold to the "dirty bomb" as the term is used in the common press as well as by nuclear safety professionals. this makes me mad when people like that LIE about the consequences of potential radiological releases ... because he obviously knows better due to his credentials and experience. Gudkov is the scientist, and Feinstein said he's the "entrepeneur." well, no wonder they did not reply to my e-mails. they are selling the investment community a Bill of Goods about the Dirty Bomb thing, though ... long term i think the stock will be seeing $13 again because there is always a Greater Fool.
it is a LIE to equate a "dirty bomb" with the 1-kT low-yield nuke weapon he discussed. a "dirty bomb" releases radioactive materials during a conventional HE explosion to disperse radioactive materials. if anybody was close enough to a dirty bomb to get a radiation dose that high, they would be blown to bits by the explosion, and not a candidate for drug treatment because they would be dead due to "disassembly."
i had a good gain on the shares bought @ $6.09 and cannot sell the rest until tomorrow. if MRS. MONEY is buying tomorrow i'll be dumping the rest of it.