KCG down due to rumor of algo gone wild

Quote from jj90:

Data from their last quarterly report, out not very long ago. I looked @ goog finance but it didnt have the breakdowns of the balance sheet and more importantly, note to the financial statements. Noted with regard to the operational risk, but as I really only care up to AUG17, I'd like to know if anyone is looking at this from a liquidity POV.

I understand why it's important to look at the balance sheet, but given the company's situation, it's only really one tiny part of the overall picture.

You would assume that in addition to the $440 million loss, that many millions of customers' cash are leaving the company today, in addition to whatever left the company yesterday.
 
Quote from jj90:

Data from their last quarterly report, out not very long ago. I looked @ goog finance but it didnt have the breakdowns of the balance sheet and more importantly, note to the financial statements. Noted with regard to the operational risk, but as I really only care up to AUG17, I'd like to know if anyone is looking at this from a liquidity POV.

I don't know why you would short vol here. Either they have a liquidity problem and shareholders will get zero when Citigroup or JPM buy them out or they don't have a liquidity problem and the stock will rally 100% from here. And this probably will be determined in a few days.
 
Gasparino was just on FBN:

* repeated that 10 firms not routing to NITE

* pointed out that KCG bonds have rallied into the 70s, suggesting a dilutive capital raising

* but shareholders may still suffer further losses as a result of any potential capital raising

*****

but then

2:11pm
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/231089845366304768

more knight news: sen subs now trade at 50 cents on dollar--not good news for knight's future as stock falls below $3

http://cxa.gtm.idmanagedsolutions.c...nOption=2&TradeSize=&SortBy=0&ID=NDk5MDA1QUU2
 
Stuff like this ruins market confidence.

It's good Knight got shafted for it's own stupidity.

Otherwise, it's moral hazard 24/7.

Makes me think a few top-line banks were on the hook during the flash crash. Which explains why they busted the trades - political influence. Knight is a relatively small fish. Capitalism for them...
 
Quote from DeltaSpread:

At least I was not the only one.

Very interesting options action right now as stock price flirts with new lows. Aug $2.50 puts spiking to a new high with a tight spread. .45/.50 Torn between selling or buying right now. Will let it play out a bit more.

Still on sideline, but you would think I should know by now >> Whenever the premium might be tempting you to sell, you should always buy.

$2.50 Aug puts just busted .80/.85 spread

so taking the ask price above @ .50 would have yielded you an incredible 60% gain in less than 2 hours.

Jan13 $2.50 puts running > $1.20

this is crazy
 

So they are saying just shy of 1Bn. I think that for a bank that doesn't have an electronic execution presence this is a jewel. There aren't any unknown liabilities and you can blow out the institutional sales and trading (which will lower your costs). You can probably justify over 1Bn in valuation. Take out 350MM in convertible debt and you have 650MM in equity value (about 6.5/share). There are a lot of people who can buy this now or through liquidation.

I bought aug 2.5 calls for about $1 so i'm a little underwater right now, but i think this is going to be a much higher stock after this.

The difference between this and MF, BSC, LEH, etc. is that the downside risk is very known. A firm that buys this immediately brings credibility which will cause people to resume trading with them.

EDIT:
bought the Aug 2.5 call vs Jan13 5 call.
 
Quote from Chicago_CTA:

You sound so bitter, atticus. Have they harmed you personally by providing liquidity?

...

I can see why people hate Goldman Sachs, with its unfair advantages, bailouts, political cronyism, etc. But Knight?!
It was one of the few good names left on the STreet.

As someone who trades equities, I certainly wouldn't call Knight a "good name". Their core equity trading business model is based on little bribes paid to retail brokers for "muppet" order flow. (This, and B/D internalization, is where the nastiest of the "subpennying" comes from, by the way.)

Re: Goldman comparisons: at least Goldman has real talent at its core competencies (deal making, and trading bespoke instruments). Knight, IMO, does not. I've long doubted that Knight would be able to trade its way out of a paper bag, if it had to compete in a fair, lit market without the little bribes. Yesterday's action comfirms this. If a company can't succeed in trading even with the PFOF/wholesaler scam advantage on its side, it truly have no excuse to exist.

Knight had a good game in the 90's, but their time is over, and they're struggling to hold on to a business model that results in unfair, untransparent, and fragmented equities market space. In fact, Knight actively and aggressively works to dissuade legislators and the SEC from making the market more transparent and fair (e.g., the proposed "Trade At" rule would make the PFOF scam a lot more difficult).

I feel sorry for those who work there -- I'm sure there are many quality employees -- but the US capital markets would be far better off without the entire PFOF/wholesaler/subpenny scam, and better off without Knight, if that's the only game they know how to play.
 
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