Karen the Supertrader - TastyTrade Hybrid Experiment

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Doesn't matter if win percentage is higher than loss percentage, if your gains are less per win than the losses per trade loss. Have to factor in the amount of payout or loss too. What is the overall expected value? Is it positive or negative?
Positive.
 
Okay, ladies. Here's the weekly update for my itty bitty account.

The project is down 1.87% since it began on January 19, 2017.

The account is up 1.29% for this week.

I opened 3 new trades for the week.

I am attaching my risk profile and a snapshot of my greeks.

Everything is going according to plan and the portfolio has a 53% probability of profit.

Happy trading!

Bobby
 

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How is it possible? - we had the perfect environment for this kind of strategy
The project is significantly smaller than the original paper experiment. Thus, I am primarily selling spreads. I bought a SPX calendar spread and I failed to manage it. My rules are to close it at either a 10% profit or close it at a 20% loss. At the time, I had completely abandoned my spreadsheet and was just winging it. I regained control on March 6. Let's attribute my poor performance to pilot error. The account was down as much as 6.53%. I am in full recovery mode.
 
"My rules are to close it at either a 10% profit or close it at a 20% loss."

That doesn't seem to indicate a decent P:L ratio to me....
 
"My rules are to close it at either a 10% profit or close it at a 20% loss."

That doesn't seem to indicate a decent P:L ratio to me....
Those numbers are for calendar spreads only. This worked out just fine I. The paper experiment and would have worked fine in the project had I adhered to the rules.

The key is to take profits early and give a little more room to let your losers run. The herd cuts losses quickly and let's their winners run. I run against the herd.
 
Those numbers are for calendar spreads only. This worked out just fine I. The paper experiment and would have worked fine in the project had I adhered to the rules.

The key is to take profits early and give a little more room to let your losers run. The herd cuts losses quickly and let's their winners run. I run against the herd.
The herd claims to let profits run and cut losses early but I think the opposite actually occurs.
 
The reality of execution will never allow for 20% cut loss to happen. You attribute it to pilot error but I would call it market slippage or market stop loss order in illiquid option markets. People dont understand that market makers profit from fast markets cause liquidity dries up when you need it most. Your not getting filled at a fair price and will get killed. I'm sure your broker will encourage you to keep trying. You need a strategy that limits losses without unwinding for a loss. Where could we find that? An option??
 
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