Just a rant
- Thread starter mikeriley
- Start date
Just because a breakout fails 70% of the time doesn't mean your stop can't get it while fading it.
I suggest you make a live journal and call out all the entries, exists, stops and position sizes and let's see how well you do.
I'm pretty sure i know where this will end, especially when you're trading forex but i do hope i'm wrong. Only a journal would prove the strategy.
See, That's the thing, i never seem to get anyone do a journal of their successful strategy. I mean why not? Surely, it won't fail as all of you describe. And if you are as successful with your strategy then you'll get tons of positive engagement and notice. Why so shy?
Why just talk the talk and never walk the walk?
only?
That's plenty.
And i'm not trying to be provocative, i just explained what i've noticed.
You'd have a win-win if it works.
Good luck!
We need to understand the bet we are doing when we enter the markets to trade, particularly if you're looking to make exponential gains actively day trading. You're right the bet isn't on any single strategy or really anything else when we trade. You're betting that your decision making, ability to read the market and discipline is superior to most other people(or at least good enough to take the weakest links money) - that's the actual bet. So before anyone puts on a serious trade, you better have some data to support that, so that you actually believe it to be true and don't fall apart mentally when you go through a losing streak.
I'm sorry, but this is why traders like you keep losing time after time. You show your hands to the entire world and hope nobody would notice.
To illustrate, Let me refer to the chart that you've posted.
Look at the area of breakout where you annotated. Why do you suppose it reversed back down ONLY after 3 bars? It didn't even had the chance to make a double top.
More importantly, who do you suppose is behind ALL that selling??
That's right, the institution. Small fries like you and me have no financial clout to do that.
So the question is, why would these institutions do such a hideous thing and hurt the retail traders in the process? BECAUSE YOU TOLD THEM ABOUT IT!
But that's exactly what allows people to make exponential gains, you look to identify area's where others are potentially and likely trapped, than you get in. I don't want to be the first to jump in and get trapped and led to the slaughter. Sure you can argue the HFT, algo's, big money, market makers or whatever you believe is causing this action, makes it harder for traders in general. I could probably be persuaded on that. But it also makes the market I would argue less random and for those that understand what is going on, allows for a lot of opportunity.
Like that's the entire point why I tend to trade NQ more than ES. Because it extends more(punishes / traps people more), breaks relative highs and lows a lot more often. Also tends to break major highs more often. Friday is a perfect example. NQ blasted through it's HOD, where as ES never even made it back. My expectation was a move up on friday, due to the pattern we're in (aggressive selling for past 6 days that has consistently punished shorts). Shorts and longs were valid on Friday for sure. Anyone taking shorts though was trading against probability, particularly if looking for a major move down.
Friday, weekend before a holiday, plus the pattern is showing punishing shorts. Anyone looking for a major breakdown on friday was simply guessing and if it would of happened would of been more luck than skill. Not that it matters or changes the facts - but Yes, I posted all this in advanced and traded my view and posted my results.
How can aggressive selling "punish" shorts? When I have a short position on I'm usually praying and hoping for MORE aggressive selling.
+1.
my friend at citadel said they are redoing all their algos now. It’s all hands on deck there to update the models before tomorrow morning.
my friend at citadel said they are redoing all their algos now. It’s all hands on deck there to update the models before tomorrow morning.
I'm sorry, but this is why traders like you keep losing time after time. You show your hands to the entire world and hope nobody would notice.
To illustrate, Let me refer to the chart that you've posted.
Look at the area of breakout where you annotated. Why do you suppose it reversed back down ONLY after 3 bars? It didn't even had the chance to make a double top.
More importantly, who do you suppose is behind ALL that selling??
That's right, the institution. Small fries like you and me have no financial clout to do that.
So the question is, why would these institutions do such a hideous thing and hurt the retail traders in the process? BECAUSE YOU TOLD THEM ABOUT IT!