Just a rant

[Concinnity]

How can aggressive selling "punish" shorts? When I have a short position on I'm usually praying and hoping for MORE aggressive selling.

Because if aggressive selling gets absorbed and no progress down, likely even more shorts trapped (when we already have macro shorts trapped), Not to mention it looks like this move may actually be buyers with real longer term intent as well. Now any buying that comes in, that pressure some shorts, more cover and they become buyers too. So basically for a moment in time there's an imbalance and to correct it we will go bust the highs and squeeze all the shorts out(shorts used as fuel to move us higher).

Beyond that here's another way to look at it is just simply a pattern read. It's possible my above theory is wrong and not that I would want that, but point is price is in a pattern for some reason and when I notice that I lean on it until pattern fails. In the most simplest form I can put it - pattern has been down moves that don't go very far down (relative to overall move) and than we go take out the HOD.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Have you ever heard someone say,
"No one ever shares their successful
strategy?"

I could show a dozen or more strategies
from exceptional successful traders,
but for brevity I'll just show one simple
strategy. A strategy that dozens
of successful traders have
shown us over and over and over.

The strategy is to wait for the Market to test
a breakout at a HIGH and LOW level on a higher
time frames of monthly, weekly daily charts.

The strategy is very replicable, in some
markets more than once a week.
(ONLY NEED 1 OR 2 TRADES A WEEK)

Chart below is showing 2 days of data for Gold.

If a chart is blown up (as it should be) and not
just focused on lower time frame bars. The
market action is discernible to anyone but a
blind man.

Guess what? Hundreds, if not thousands
of traders use this simple strategy for profit!

If many traders are using this simple strategy
for profits, what does that mean?

It means that the unsuccessful have no excuse.

View attachment 327833

Good Morning mikeriley,

Do you have any proof with performance metrics and dollars documentation and drawdown this strategy makes money of a sample of trades?


Full Disclaimer : I am currently a Losing Trader so far of about -$4,800 on the fiscal year of 2023. Let's see how the next 2 months go. My comments are not worth a penny with a hole in it because I am losing trader right now

 

[tomkat22]

Because if aggressive selling gets absorbed and no progress down, likely even more shorts trapped (when we already have macro shorts trapped), Not to mention it looks like this move may actually be buyers with real longer term intent as well. Now any buying that comes in, that pressure some shorts, more cover and they become buyers too. So basically for a moment in time there's an imbalance and to correct it we will go bust the highs and squeeze all the shorts out(shorts used as fuel to move us higher).

Beyond that here's another way to look at it is just simply a pattern read. It's possible my above theory is wrong and not that I would want that, but point is price is in a pattern for some reason and when I notice that I lean on it until pattern fails. In the most simplest form I can put it - pattern has been down moves that don't go very far down (relative to overall move) and than we go take out the HOD.

All I know is there's been a whole lot of buying the last 3 weeks and shorts/bears have been taking it up the poop chute.

 

[Concinnity]

All I know is there's been a whole lot of buying the last 3 weeks and shorts/bears have been taking it up the poop chute.

Fair enough that's an even easier way to put it. Was just a matter of picking up on the pattern as early as possible and finding an entry vehicle or way to trade it while managing risk. Any extra actual mathematical data, confluence or overall market experience just adds to your ability to take better advantage of it. For me that edge is potentially gone now. Will need to Sunday night action, as well as potentially even some of Mondays action to see if can pick up on something else. If cannot than will just either not trade if it's too unclear, or if it seems neutral will just take both shorts and long setups as they present themselves.

 

[schizo]

my friend at citadel said they are redoing all their algos now. It’s all hands on deck there to update the models before tomorrow morning.

I'm glad to know. My buddies at Virtu are also telling me they're revamping their entire algos over the weekend.

 

[newwurldmn]

I'm glad to know. My buddies at Virtu are also telling me they're revamping their entire algos over the weekend.

so is the Goldman Sachs and the J.P. Morgan.

mike Reilly really shit the bed on this one.

 

[SunTrader]

Failures are the best but all I need to see in this situation is a break and close below the high (close) bar:

Which then turned into resistance but that is besides the point that peeps are trapped up above and bailing quick adding to the drop.

 

[schizo]

Failures are the best but all I need to see in this situation is a break and close below the high (close) bar:

View attachment 327884

Which then turned into resistance but that is besides the point that peeps are trapped up above and bailing quick adding to the drop.

But there's one problem. This ain't no proper breakout. Look to the left of the chart. There's nothing to base the breakout off of.

This is a proper breakout.

 

[schizo]

so is the Goldman Sachs and the J.P. Morgan.

mike Reilly really shit the bed on this one.

Well, he promises to journal his trades so we'll see if he'll end up pooping or not. Frankly, he sounds constipated.

 

[Concinnity]

Well I think that depends on context of higher time frames and your overall read of the particularly instrument. But generally speaking yes, I'd much rather take the setup you posted, as it's more clear that you have a sizable amount of buyers to potentially puke out.