Just a rant

Concinnity is absolutely correct, it's fading a breakout.
One of the easiest setups to follow and trade.
On higher time frames/value it's a high probability
trade since most breakouts fail.

Appreciate all the responses.
 
Look at the area of breakout where you annotated. Why do you suppose it reversed back down ONLY after 3 bars? It didn't even had the chance to make a double top.

More importantly, who do you suppose is behind ALL that selling??

That's right, the institution. Small fries like you and me have no financial clout to do that.

So the question is, why would these institutions do such a hideous thing and hurt the retail traders in the process? BECAUSE YOU TOLD THEM ABOUT IT!
More...

This is just one very effective setup that I've been
trading over 15 years trading futures and forex.

Apparently you seem to have forgotten I posted
several live winning trades on this forum.

If you fail to understand why the setup works, it
might be prudent to humble your arrogance, and
allow someone who actually knows why it works.
to show you.

HINT: Look up buyside and sellside liquidity dump.
 
I see this is a pretty typical BO failure/fading setup in hindsight.

But how do you know for certain in real time? Even after the failed 2nd push-up it still may come back up to pass the highest point. I guess you can use risk management to set a stop at or right above the prior high point.
 
I see this is a pretty typical BO failure/fading setup in hindsight.

But how do you know for certain in real time? Even after the failed 2nd push-up it still may come back up to pass the highest point. I guess you can use risk management to set a stop at or right above the prior high point.
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Price persistency and higher time frames.
Price does not "turn on a dime" on higher
time frames.

As long as price does not break the pivot
Swing High, where the stop-loss is located
at, I'm not concerned.
 
What I am saying is that one is still never 100% sure about this BO failure after the 2nd push-up, so a risk needs to be taken for this trade. The probability of a winning trade here is rather unknown beforehand, however the risk is quite well defined.

This chart again reveals the difficulty of trading in general. You could have been stopped out after you enter a short position post the 2nd push-up and then it falls back to the far downside, for example. But you already took a loss and do you enter again?
 
mikeriley said:
Apparently you seem to have forgotten I posted
several live winning trades on this forum.
More...
Oh, so you have posted live trades? I'm no stranger to live trades either. In that case, may I suggest you create a new thread and post your trades in REAL TIME? We can then further discuss the merits of your system.
 
What I am saying is that one is still never 100% sure about this BO failure after the 2nd push-up, so a risk needs to be taken for this trade. The probability of a winning trade here is rather unknown beforehand, but the risk is quite well defined.
More...

About 70% of breakouts fail, so technically there's
a statistical edge. I trade every last one, especially
in forex.
 
Agreed!

However, the issue here is how the 70% failures turn out each time. As I said above you could be stopped out before market goes your way again. You can set a wider stop but again your risk becomes larger too.

Therefore, a fading BOs strategy is high probability at 70-80% in theory. The actual execution is, on the other hand, an entirely different matter due to the fact that market can move in varying ways.
 
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I may have a different perspective.
On higher time frames, I don't actually
see the market bouncing back and forth
like a yoyo.

I see markets running 1 to 2 days in a TREND.
Here's last week's data for Gold...what do you see?

We trade what we see. (Or we trade according to our perspective)

Screenshot_25.png
 
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