Just a kid looking for advice

Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

Let me save you the time. I would shy away from the fantasy of stat arb. The best definition really means free money on a very short term time horizon.

There are 2 problems for you in regards to this subject.

1. There are too many players in this game already.

2. They all have co-location and can work these opportunities well before you. This is assuming you do not have the capability.

Another problem is that you might "see" this opportunity, but when it comes down to the real trading environment and not a live simulator these opportunities do not appear anymore. You will get eaten by commissions and the spread.

By all means try it out though, maybe you excel in something that others do not. I just wouldn't put all your effort into this subject because there is a very high probability that you will be let down.

If this indeed does fail just remember not to give up. There are plenty of ways to earn a few ticks here and there.

I completely agree with you in regards to the true definition of arbitrage. But what I am referring to and what I think most people mean when they use the term, is any strategy that uses statistical methods to generate trading signals.

As for co-location, I am not going to be focusing on hfT cause I don't believe there is an edge there for me. I am working on ideas that basically gets signals on daily prices that I am then able to use on a intra-day time frame whether its pairs trading, ETF vs components, mean reversion.

I understand that I am not able to compete with the hedge funds and prop desk that co-location servers and hundreds of millions of dollars, but I think that me being small with a few hundred thousand in buying power that I able to develop strategies that a lot of these guys over look.

But like you said I am going to give it a try and keep going till I find something.
 
Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:

Let me save you the time. I would shy away from the fantasy of stat arb. The best definition really means free money on a very short term time horizon.

There are 2 problems for you in regards to this subject.

1. There are too many players in this game already.

2. They all have co-location and can work these opportunities well before you. This is assuming you do not have the capability.

Another problem is that you might "see" this opportunity, but when it comes down to the real trading environment and not a live simulator these opportunities do not appear anymore. You will get eaten by commissions and the spread.

By all means try it out though, maybe you excel in something that others do not. I just wouldn't put all your effort into this subject because there is a very high probability that you will be let down.

If this indeed does fail just remember not to give up. There are plenty of ways to earn a few ticks here and there.


+1. First Learn how to trade and then may be you can do your fancy Algos better.
 
Quote from jokepie:

+1. First Learn how to trade and then may be you can do your fancy Algos better.

Can you explain to me how it is that a lot of graduates of hard sciences (Math, stats, physics, etc.) are able to get jobs at hedge funds, investment banks as quant developers/traders without a finance/trading background?

I don't have a phd, but I feel that am at a graduate level in regards to applying mathematical and statistical methods (data mining) to time series, as well as being able to program in c#, R and mathematica.

Maybe I am missing a huge point here, but why do I need to learn how to trade manually first? I am not trying to be a prick or nothing, I just don't see how this is going to prevent me from going down the path that I am.
 
Quote from S.Cromwell1989:
Maybe I am missing a huge point here, but why do I need to learn how to trade manually first? I am not trying to be a prick or nothing, I just don't see how this is going to prevent me from going down the path that I am.

Don't mind that, they're just mad that you're not going to go through the same stuff they did/are, just different stuff.
 
Quote from S.Cromwell1989:

Can you explain to me how it is that a lot of graduates of hard sciences (Math, stats, physics, etc.) are able to get jobs at hedge funds, investment banks as quant developers/traders without a finance/trading background?

I don't have a phd, but I feel that am at a graduate level in regards to applying mathematical and statistical methods (data mining) to time series, as well as being able to program in c#, R and mathematica.

Maybe I am missing a huge point here, but why do I need to learn how to trade manually first? I am not trying to be a prick or nothing, I just don't see how this is going to prevent me from going down the path that I am.

i will give a simple (may be its not that Obvious) example, WHat is the difference between a Race car Driver and its Engineer. Big difference. However, the fact is that both need to know each-others functions and limitations.
You can be a better engineer when you understand what is that the Race Driver will need or DO. Also, get an understanding of the Track and its conditions.

Math majors/Phds / programmers that are hired at hedge funds serve different purposes. Phd guy analyzes the information and tries to FIND a statistical edge and then the Programmer programs it. More than the programmer, Phd guy needs to understand what traders do, how do they think, how price behaves. they come up with what is based on the HISTORICAL data and work with ODDS.

Now with so many players all trying to do the same thing, they have ran the lake dry. Statistical edge is either minimal or GONE. They have been doing thsi for 20 yrs now.

"Statistically" & "ON LIQUID DAYS" HFT's will soon become NOISE. Their actions will average out. What will be left then ?? Good OLD money moving the market. Big moves is where the money will be !! Do you not ALREADY SEE this happening.

I might have Blab'd beyond my experience :cool: :cool:

Well given what i said above might be discredited. Since, You do not have the capital to move the market, learn to trade and understand price action and larger market cycles (bulls and Bears)
You will find your Trading Edge and then you can program it.
I am not against programming however, when a 6 sigma event happens- manual trading can save your ass.
 
Quote from nooby_mcnoob:

Don't mind that, they're just mad that you're not going to go through the same stuff they did/are, just different stuff.


... :D
 
Quote from nooby_mcnoob:

Don't mind that, they're just mad that you're not going to go through the same stuff they did/are, just different stuff.

I get that feeling sometimes that is why I take everything with a grain of salt. I just want to learn so all advice is welcomed. Whether or not I agree or understand it.
 
Quote from jokepie:

i will give a simple (may be its not that Obvious) example, WHat is the difference between a Race car Driver and its Engineer. Big difference. However, the fact is that both need to know each-others functions and limitations.
You can be a better engineer when you understand what is that the Race Driver will need or DO. Also, get an understanding of the Track and its conditions.

Math majors/Phds / programmers that are hired at hedge funds serve different purposes. Phd guy analyzes the information and tries to FIND a statistical edge and then the Programmer programs it. More than the programmer, Phd guy needs to understand what traders do, how do they think, how price behaves. they come up with what is based on the HISTORICAL data and work with ODDS.

Now with so many players all trying to do the same thing, they have ran the lake dry. Statistical edge is either minimal or GONE. They have been doing thsi for 20 yrs now.

"Statistically" & "ON LIQUID DAYS" HFT's will soon become NOISE. Their actions will average out. What will be left then ?? Good OLD money moving the market. Big moves is where the money will be !! Do you not ALREADY SEE this happening.

I might have Blab'd beyond my experience :cool: :cool:

Well given what i said above might be discredited. Since, You do not have the capital to move the market, learn to trade and understand price action and larger market cycles (bulls and Bears)
You will find your Trading Edge and then you can program it.
I am not against programming however, when a 6 sigma event happens- manual trading can save your ass.

Point well taken.
 
Quote from S.Cromwell1989:

I get that feeling sometimes that is why I take everything with a grain of salt. I just want to learn so all advice is welcomed. Whether or not I agree or understand it.

Thats the right attitude.
Our experience influence our thinking and decision making. Even though you can read the words on ET, you can only truly understand it when you experience it yourself.

:cool:
 
Quote from S.Cromwell1989:

Can you explain to me how it is that a lot of graduates of hard sciences (Math, stats, physics, etc.) are able to get jobs at hedge funds, investment banks as quant developers/traders without a finance/trading background?

The [eople who run companies bought big ,achines and on one for finance/trading could make use of them. The people who sell computers nade the sales a one timne event.

Before they sold them no one was needed; after they sold them they needed people to fool around with the computers.

Bif computers like to handle big amounts of data. They mine it To find out hidden things that don't do very much of anything.

The money to hire the people using the computers doesn't comes from taking advantahe of what computers mine. The money comes from fees and commissions of sales people in the organizations.


I don't have a phd, but I feel that am at a graduate level in regards to applying mathematical and statistical methods (data mining) to time series, as well as being able to program in c#, R and mathematica.

The independent variable in markets is not time. Instead it is the order of evenrs of which there are two. Go to Behavioral Finance and find out what the events ae and how decisions are made with regard to the independent variables. Here, you will find out that information that works falls into the non probabilistic division of information theory.

Certainly programmiing is required to deal with the independent variables. The rype of variables slams home very very succinctly why probability has been excused.


Maybe I am missing a huge point here, but why do I need to learn how to trade manually first? I am not trying to be a prick or nothing, I just don't see how this is going to prevent me from going down the path that I am.

The path you are going down is one that you want to go down. The path you NEED to go down is NOT the path you will follow. You negotiated with your dad a deal. It was for ,oney to set up what is known as a trading account. your broker does NOT have a tool that runs the account to deliver money into the account. You think you will attach something to your account to have it make money. Your boker will love it since it will put money in his pocket no matter what the huge computer you wished you had is doing.

Anyone can learn to trade; there is no brain level requirement. It takes a few weeks to get trading down if your learning process is prperly supported. That isn't going to happen for you, ever.

Enjoy working with your dad on the farm; he will not even consider your spending down the money he put in your account He recognizes farm work is a good thing to learn especially that there areno shortcuts.

Running big computers is fun too; they really hum along doing the smae old day after day.



Isn't that Boolean Algebra the nuts for handling the independent varibles of the market. Who would have ever thought that it all came down to four gerunds. Didn't we all really luck out because all markets have a limiting granularity.

One of those very cool things back in the 50's was getting statisitcal mechanics to simulate integral and ifferential calculus. that was really a rush to have to face the fact that continuous functions were not hoing to be the way of the world.

How far away from Peggy's Cove are you?
 
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