JS Global Macro Notes
- Thread starter darkhorse
- Start date
SWAG (sophisticated wild-ass guess) for today's FOMC: A lack of major waves, actions telegraphed pretty much as expected, general bullish bid persisting on the back of continued bottom up optimism and super accommodative monetary policy.
Outlier possibility: The Fed is less eager to please than expected in the tone and tenor of their comments, resulting in a Wall Street temper tantrum that blows over.
Overall, it appears "all quiet on the Western front" for now in terms of destabilizing macro impacts.
As for the next two years (!), RHCP sums it up nicely
p.s. Then again, the market seems to be taking this kinda hard -- minis down 1% an hour before the bell:
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Chinese shares suffered their worst fall in more than a month Tuesday, dragging markets across Asia, after weaker-than-expected import data in July, while concerns ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting weighed sentiment.
"What we are seeing is some knee-jerk reaction to this import data... It's being interpreted as disappointing and being a precursor to poor consumption on the mainland," said Ben Collett, head of equities at Louis Capital Markets.
The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.9%, its worst percentage fall since June 29, while the Shenzhen Composite index tumbled 3.3%. Hong Kong shares also responded in kind, with the Hang Seng Index finishing 1.5% lower for its second loss in 16 trading days.
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Chinese shares suffered their worst fall in more than a month Tuesday, dragging markets across Asia, after weaker-than-expected import data in July, while concerns ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting weighed sentiment.
"What we are seeing is some knee-jerk reaction to this import data... It's being interpreted as disappointing and being a precursor to poor consumption on the mainland," said Ben Collett, head of equities at Louis Capital Markets.
The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.9%, its worst percentage fall since June 29, while the Shenzhen Composite index tumbled 3.3%. Hong Kong shares also responded in kind, with the Hang Seng Index finishing 1.5% lower for its second loss in 16 trading days.
This am Chinese bank regulators told banks they have to hold more % for protection of off balance sheet trusts ( non performing real estate loans that have been swept under the rug) , up to 150%. That helped dump Chinese mkts.and is an idicator of weakness in their banks. NFIB index provided bad news for US index futs. A move to safety in dollars , +.621 now, and treasuries. EUR/USD down as a result of that flight to safety. The FED can only remain with rhetoric controlling the day. QE2 through the back door of mortgage relief in one fashion or another is on the burner.
"Flight to safety" ?
I thought CHF is the "safety" currency.
