no worries. What is your day job?
Nothing too exciting... just a boring low to mid level job in healthcare. Trying to trade for a living hasn't gone too well so far, but I'm hoping that an eventual crash of some sort resets the playing field and that Bitcoin will catapult me higher.
No government will give up control of their currency.
I agree they won't give it up, but there is this famous quote from Friedrich Hayek that sums it up well.
I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop.
I think bitcoin has done exactly this. Its too big to stop now, it has a fair amount of protection in the US, and as John who posts regularly on the crypto forum says, that sometimes it would be even better if the US just gave up on it. This way, the rest of the world could grow the user base and then US can play catch up when they realize how badly they fucked up by being anti-bitcoin. Look at Trump who even just said that he wants all Bitcoins produced in the US. Clearly this could all just be talk, but can you imagine the US not leading what is going to be bigger than the internet? Can you imagine them not being at the table?
Bitcoin becoming that united currency of the world is a pipe dream.
Why? You see the declining purchases of UST by foreign holders? (I think when it hits zero, it means all debt is being bought by US citizens, or monetized by the Fed, which I believe is called a banana republic!)
You see Russia here planning to sell coal to India through Iran? The impacts of this is no need for USD.
I'm clearly not saying USD dies in the next few years, but as the entire world grows to be less dependant on USD, it opens up the need for a new reserve asset that can be used along side USD. All these countries like China and Russia and Iran are likely weary of eachother, and so even though they will likely do deals in their own currencies, eventually they will learn that like gold, there is something else that is nation state agnostic.
All I keep reading about is how US seizing Russia's roughly 300B in deposits was a wake up call for every single other nation that might not be friendly with the US. Eventually they will learn that bitcoin is the most trustless and efficient way to do business.
Think of how much easier it is to do business if you aren't worried about exchange rates, or how much of a foreign currency you want to hold. If you take too much of the Indian Rupee, you might not know what to do with it. And gold is just so archaic to use as a settlement. Bitcoin can literally right now be used to settle any transaction without worry about holding something that you might not want. Its super easy to use bitcoin, hold bitcoin, or dump bitcoin.
Last point about the pipe dream is that I'm all in. I wish I was back years ago when it was under 10k, but oh well. At work, not a single person has any decent amount. 90% have none. If its going to where I think it can go, we are at roughly 1996 in terms of Internet adoption. If I can learn to go all in, imagine what happens when more people become orange pilled. Imagine if you decide to buy just 10, which I'm sure is pocket change for you.
I can see there is absolutely no future in this fiat world. Life isn't going to get easier. Houses aren't going to magically become more affordable without some major collapse. And when this happens, banks are likely not even lending. The divide between the rich and the poor is just too great now. Stupid Trudeau in Canada said just recently that houses need to be more affordable, but if they drop in price then retirements are in jeopardy. Do you see what this message means? It means that the entire world is balanced on the head of a pin. Any slight movement tips it over.
There is no scenario I see where nothing drastically changes in 5 years. People already can't survive now, so if nothing improves their life, there is more hunger and homelessness. China has that "lie flat" movement where young people essentially have given up as they see no future. Men today all over the world don't even bother to date anymore. Most are economically unattractive to women, so they quit trying. Women's use of anti-depressants is extremely high... I think well over 30% for some age groups. Is any of this going to turn around? No, its all pointing to getting worse and worse.
My point with all this is that nothing is moving in the right direction, and when things supposedly get better or more affordable, it means the bottom fell out for many parts of the economy (ie. when inflation drops below 2%, it means the economy is dead). Massive stimulus cannot be tried again in my opinion since most now have done research on how the 2020 sugar rush has caused all this, and austerity will lead to riots.
I really do think its the end game now. When 90% of tax receipts covers defence, interest expense, and social entitlements that cannot be cut, how do you pay for everything else? The US right now is in a 2-3T deficit without any war time spending requirements. This huge deficit has done what... increased GDP 2%? And who is buying all the debt? Will deficits ever drop below 2T again? The US cannot stop spending now, but it has no way to pay for any of this.
I don’t think you appreciate how bad a disruptive event like 2008 could have been. The real economy literally stopped.
I wasn't paying attention at the time, so I have no idea. But when the big shock hits, trust me, the Bitcoin brigade will be screaming from the roof tops for everyone to come over to our side. If the US is smart, they will hold onto all the BTC they have seized and be well capitalized. The worry about the economy stopping isn't a huge problem in my opinion because the decentralized economy is growing every month.
We will likely even take a cue from the poor people in the south. They have apps on their phones and from what I hear, love stablecoins. Sure, this is a proxy for the USD, but it works, no banks needed. Hopefully everyone will be exchanging sats instead, but whatever it is, its going to work well without the need for what the banking cartel will have to offer.
Think about it like the internet. There are so many different ways to connect, even if you don't have a phone plan through a provider. There are many wifi hotspots, even free ones that provide this service. You will be able to send money with just the internet, no banks needed. I realize that credit freezing up is a major, major problem, but each year that bitcoin grows and attracts more people, the less people that will be majorly impacted.
I understand how unbelievable all of this sounds, and I would agree if there was no competition for USD. But to me, the direction is clear. I helped my dad a few weeks ago buy something on the internet that his credit card just didn't work for. Some credit cards don't work well between countries. Even Google Pay didn't work because of this credit card issue. The merchant accepted bitcoin, so I sent it, and the transaction was done in 15 minutes. No permission needed from any bank, and no worry to the merchant about a charge back.
Bitcoin will actually lead to a better economy with less friction. Yes, everything needs to be repriced, but can you imagine how quickly an economy will be able to grow when the government stops poking their nose in everything?
