JP Morgan senior exec says the Fed is unlikely to cut, will delay beyond mkt expectations

For the millionth time, the fed has zero reasons to cut rates. Talk of this rate cut is just insane, every fu*king day that's all the market pundits talk about. Enough of this garbage.....as you can clearly see the market and economy does NOT need a rate cut. Rates are still at historical lows along with gigs tic gdp growth and historical unemployment rates. Why the fuck do we need a rate cut....
Rates should actually be higher but wallstreet is not accepting of this .....you want lower rates??? if every one really really really wants lower rates the way to do it is extremely simple...

Markets have to dive, a nice strong jump in the vix touching 40+ kinda fear index where masses of people halt their retirement contributions and start pondering if they should step out to eat sushi on a Saturday eve or pay 18 bucks for a glass of wine and take that trip to that concert for $350 bucks for nosebleed seats...
You need a spiraling sell off of a great magnitude to put enough fear in this market to curb consumer spending and have people tighten up their ass about what's next to come the next opening day on wallstreet to have the fed even come remotely close to dropping Rates, until then as markets break record highs the fed knows there isn't a fuck*ng worry in the world to cute Rates by an inkling of a quarter point. ....and if they cut rates by 1 or 2 % over the next year I hope inflation comes roaring back up to 7% 8% 9% 12%. ...I welcome it with open arms...
 
S2007S said:
Enough of this garbage.....as you can clearly see the market and economy does NOT need a rate cut. Rates are still at historical lows along with gigs tic gdp growth and historical unemployment rates. Why the fuck do we need a rate cut....
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The problem is that this isn't representative of every American. Yes, people with assets at the top are doing great, but many aren't. You see lots of stats about credit card and auto loan delinquency rates going up. Many people, even if they have a cheap interest rate on their mortgage, can't afford the higher property taxes and insurance rates. As some people rate it in, many more are truly hurting.

I think the biggest problem now is the inequality. The ones at the bottom cannot fall any further. With every cycle of boom and bust, and increased debt and all the other games, people moved around between different classes. But now its game over for many people.

The Fed is absolutely in the worst possible place because no matter what they do, the collateral damage will be severe to someone.
 
in a bubble...during an election year...every little drop needs to get squeezed out of expectations. Its getting ugly. You really need to hold your nose in the market each day to avoid the stench.
 
NoahA said:
The problem is that this isn't representative of every American. Yes, people with assets at the top are doing great, but many aren't. You see lots of stats about credit card and auto loan delinquency rates going up. Many people, even if they have a cheap interest rate on their mortgage, can't afford the higher property taxes and insurance rates. As some people rate it in, many more are truly hurting.

I think the biggest problem now is the inequality. The ones at the bottom cannot fall any further. With every cycle of boom and bust, and increased debt and all the other games, people moved around between different classes. But now its game over for many people.

The Fed is absolutely in the worst possible place because no matter what they do, the collateral damage will be severe to someone.
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As much as I would like to agree I just can't. For years now I have been hearing how tapped out the consumer is. Just last year I read that more than 1/2 of Americans live pay check to paycheck, and that half can't even afford a $1000 emergency......credit card debt is now at a decade high with 1/5th maxed out on credit cards where aprs are sky high.....credit card debt is at a staggering $1 trillion as of early 2024.... now 70% of gdp is made up of consumer spending, gdp is still above 1% as of last quarter, down from end of 2023 but no where in an area where red flags are showing up.
It just seems every single time the consumer looks exhausted they come back to spend even more....they seem to have unlimited funds to keep spending and consuming....I still see nothing to worry about, I have come to the conclusion that a consumer being tapped out with little to no funds to spend and drive the US economy is just complete nonsense.
 
NoahA said:
The problem is that this isn't representative of every American. Yes, people with assets at the top are doing great, but many aren't. You see lots of stats about credit card and auto loan delinquency rates going up. Many people, even if they have a cheap interest rate on their mortgage, can't afford the higher property taxes and insurance rates. As some people rate it in, many more are truly hurting.

I think the biggest problem now is the inequality. The ones at the bottom cannot fall any further. With every cycle of boom and bust, and increased debt and all the other games, people moved around between different classes. But now its game over for many people.

The Fed is absolutely in the worst possible place because no matter what they do, the collateral damage will be severe to someone.
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I learned in 2016 that the poor want to remain poor as long as they can blame an immigrant.
 
newwurldmn said:
I learned in 2016 that the poor want to remain poor as long as they can blame an immigrant.
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Pretty much this. Still today, not a whole lot better redistributive policy can be found under Democrats/Biden. So people have two choices when voting: i) continue being poor and ii) continue being poor but also blame immigrants (and enable an authoritarian).
 
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newwurldmn said:
I learned in 2016 that the poor want to remain poor as long as they can blame an immigrant.
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I know where you are coming from, but I just don't think this is a fair assessment. There is a reason why they don't teach us finance in school. People wouldn't be nearly as poor if the government wasn't stealing our money through inflation and the Fed setting rates just to keep asset holders happy.

There should be nothing wrong with working a manual labour dead end job and trying to raise a family. Shit jobs are still important jobs. We can't all be stock brokers you know. If anything, everyone on ET making money from just moving money around is the dead weight. The cashier at the grocery store adds more value to society than any of us.

The fact that money is losing value so quickly and everything else going up in price so quickly isn't the fault of poor or dumb people. Its the fault of the crooks in power. If people don't know how to invest, this shouldn't mean they get left behind. The monetary system should work in such a way that nobody has to think about it. You should be rewarded for saving. But savers are punished, and if you don't ever learn how the system works, you get left behind.

The problem isn't dumb people, its the above average thinkers that decided to steal and take advantage of everyone else.
 
NoahA said:
I know where you are coming from, but I just don't think this is a fair assessment. There is a reason why they don't teach us finance in school. People wouldn't be nearly as poor if the government wasn't stealing our money through inflation and the Fed setting rates just to keep asset holders happy.

There should be nothing wrong with working a manual labour dead end job and trying to raise a family. Shit jobs are still important jobs. We can't all be stock brokers you know. If anything, everyone on ET making money from just moving money around is the dead weight. The cashier at the grocery store adds more value to society than any of us.

The fact that money is losing value so quickly and everything else going up in price so quickly isn't the fault of poor or dumb people. Its the fault of the crooks in power. If people don't know how to invest, this shouldn't mean they get left behind. The monetary system should work in such a way that nobody has to think about it. You should be rewarded for saving. But savers are punished, and if you don't ever learn how the system works, you get left behind.

The problem isn't dumb people, its the above average thinkers that decided to steal and take advantage of everyone else.
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you should be rewarded for investing, not necessarily for saving unless we are talking about on some moralistic principle.

I don’t believe inflation is anyone’s fault - like an avalanche isn’t the fault of any single snowflake. There are certainly people taking advantage of inflation.

“There should be nothing wrong with working a manual labour dead end job and trying to raise a family.”

I hire from this pool and the only thing stopping most of these people is themselves. Show up on time and do your job and you can quickly get to the median national income. For some, however, they can’t because of life circumstances (personal situation or immigration status) but most can from what I have seen. I hire in an “urban” area and in rural areas - mostly trump loving districts in purple or blue states.
 
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