Joining the CME gang

[tiddlywinks]

there's an element of luck involved in this game. I'll readily admit it. Both good luck and bad luck (like getting low ticked/stopped out and then have the market go your way just after.

Your example has absolutely nothing to do with luck. Your example has to do with inaccurate data analysis. An example of luck would be entering the market and a piece of news, which you have no control over, content, timing or otherwise, moves the market in a good or bad way in relation to your entry.

One of my favorite life slogans is "The more I do, the luckier I get". A close look at that statement, you'll see most so-called luck comes from experience and doing, although the uncontrollable is omnipresent.

if you continued trading at maximum size you're bound to have a bad day.

Unless you are talking about a method scalability issue or instrument liquidity constraint, maximum size has nothing to do with trade efficacy. You can sling 1, 5, 50, 100 contracts at ES for instance and it will have zero effect on how the trade performs.

The traders' mindset and discipline is the culprit in the scenario you speak, period.

That is all.
Carry On!

 

[Laissez Faire]

Your example has absolutely nothing to do with luck.

Huge, adverse spikes happen, yes?

Unless you are talking about a method scalability issue or instrument liquidity constraint, maximum size has nothing to do with trade efficacy.

You can sling 1, 5, 50, 100 contracts at ES for instance and it will have zero effect on how the trade performs.

The traders' mindset and discipline is the culprit in the scenario you speak, period.

100? Why not 200 contracts then?

With a 100K account he can do that using maximum leverage available.

At 200 contracts you're trading ES for 10K per point.

How does that factor in the 'traders mindset and discipline'?

I'm not really sure what your point is. I never said anything about liquidity constraints on ES. I'm bluntly saying that the OP is trading with very high leverage and is sadly suffering the consequences.

 

[tiddlywinks]

You said...

if you continued trading at maximum size you're bound to have a bad day

I called BS...

Unless you are talking about a method scalability issue or instrument liquidity constraint, maximum size has nothing to do with trade efficacy. You can sling 1, 5, 50, 100 contracts at ES for instance and it will have zero effect on how the trade performs.

And you try to make a point with?...

100? Why not 200 contracts then?

With a 100K account he can do that using maximum leverage available.

At 200 contracts you're trading ES for 10K per point.

1) I already gave exception to scalability and liquidity. So if those are acceptable, why not? The trade efficacy will not be affected. The market just don't care.
2) So?
3) So? The trade efficacy will not be affected. The market just don't care.

The traders' mindset and discipline is the culprit in the scenario you speak, period.

I'm bluntly saying that the OP is trading with very high leverage and is sadly suffering the consequences.

I disagree... you are "enlightening" and offering external reasons and/or excuses. Luck? Maximum size? Neither are the cause of hilmys or anyone elses failed trades.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You said...

I called BS...

And you try to make a point with?...

I think you didn't quite get my point which is simply that unless he has a superior method he's bound to eventually have a losing day. And if he's trading with maximum leverage that day quickly escalates unless he have superior discipline.

If you're trading maximum size or very high leverage and keep compounding aggressively as profits accrue on a winning streak - you will easily lose days and even weeks of past profits on a 'normal loss' day point wise.

Anyway, it's Hilmy's journal and a bit pointless to discuss unless he's interested in participating. IMO.

 

[destriero]

Considering that LF doesn't have money in the mkt, yes, it's wasted energy.

 

[syswizard]

Considering that LF doesn't have money in the mkt, yes, it's wasted energy.

No Dude, you are wrong....I can confirm that he trades with real money.
What's wasted energy is this thread without any trading stats :
Avg Win Rate ?
Avg # of trades per day ?
Avg winning trade amt in points ?
Avg losing trade amt in points ?
Avg Winning Days percentage ?

 

[destriero]

No Dude, you are wrong....I can confirm that he trades with real money.
What's wasted energy is this thread without any trading stats :
Avg Win Rate ?
Avg # of trades per day ?
Avg winning trade amt in points ?
Avg losing trade amt in points ?
Avg Winning Days percentage ?

How do you know this? He's never posted a run or an actual trade. And no way the guy (LF) has over $20K net liq.

And it's hilmy's thread. Ppl wanted to see the PNL. The smooth eq-curve meant that his R/R was underwater. That's fine, but it always blows-up, typically when you size up.

 

[DarthSidious]

The smooth eq-curve meant that his R/R was underwater. That's fine, but it always blows-up, typically when you size up

About smooth upwards eq-curve: Been hanging in the WSB discord lately for juvenile entertainment during the day. And the Balcka guy is a regular there of course. While there is no questioning he is loaded and does swing huge size, he never posts in quite real time. But of course when the market is up, he is always long and vice versa. He was short multiple hundreds (supposedly) and at 1400 CST as the massive pump up started, he was supposedly flipped, losing a supposed 2 ticks (obviously) and then carried a huge long position to glory

 

[destriero]

About smooth upwards eq-curve: Been hanging in the WSB discord lately for juvenile entertainment during the day. And the Balcka guy is a regular there of course. While there is no questioning he is loaded and does swing huge size, he never posts in quite real time. But of course when the market is up, he is always long and vice versa. He was short multiple hundreds (supposedly) and at 1400 CST as the massive pump up started, he was supposedly flipped, losing a supposed 2 ticks (obviously) and then carried a huge long position to glory

He's super-new to this. I am not going to talk out of school but he's sitting on basically unlimited funds.

 

[DarthSidious]

He's super-new to this. I am not going to talk out of school but he's sitting on basically unlimited funds.

Not doubting that. But coloring performance data is not okay. I see so many people trying to size up quickly and invariably going on tilt. I see people idolizing folks like that... that dream. It's not okay