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Jim Rogers sees US real estate crash
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
Quote from blast19:
Yeah right...have you seen that guy's cruising mobile...it's a piece of shit and I wouldn't go anywhere but off a pier in it, but he's cruised that thing all over the world.
I've gotta give him credit for going all over the world and having a better life than Soros who's probably done nothing but sit in conference rooms in suits all over the world.
Whether he's right or not, I think he's a bit pessimistic and I don't agree with his stance on China, gotta hand it to him for his lifestyle choice. But you might also want to discount what he says since he's a half-time investor it seems.
Didn't he ride around the world in a BMW motorcycle. or something.. ?
Right or wrong, he can sits through a 30% drop, real traders are on a different time-horizon.
half-time investor? he travels around the world to get investment ideas and enjoy himself at the same time. his cruising mobile is a piece of shit?Quote from blast19:
Yeah right...have you seen that guy's cruising mobile...it's a piece of shit and I wouldn't go anywhere but off a pier in it, but he's cruised that thing all over the world.
I've gotta give him credit for going all over the world and having a better life than Soros who's probably done nothing but sit in conference rooms in suits all over the world.
Whether he's right or not, I think he's a bit pessimistic and I don't agree with his stance on China, gotta hand it to him for his lifestyle choice. But you might also want to discount what he says since he's a half-time investor it seems.
"Whether he's right or not, I think he's a bit pessimistic and I don't agree with his stance on China"(blast19) statement)
do you have 1 iota of reasoning behind
your statements?
Excellent Commentary All
.....................................................................................
The real question posed by Rogers should relate to the notion that price sensitivity of the core real estate valuations will have both exuberant upward and downward swings over a given period of time...
What has been in supply that was not in supply during other real estate boom bust periods is indeed the...easy money loans...that were advanced quickly because of lessor individual earnings capability standards allowances....
The question here is who wins who loses...and if there is an exuberant downward price movement ..then what would be the factors that would establish a reversal of this movement...
The other question is how sensitive is the multiplier effect of this valuation loss....and what is its actual meaning in the economy...
..................................................................................................
For example......
A condominium project has 100 units....In 2005 the appraised value was $100,000....In 2006 the appraised value was $200,000....and in 2007 the appraised value is $100,000....
What this means is that in a real sense...actual physical structure and hard assets...things are basically the same....
What has changed is the actual price...which is constantly changed by supply demand.....
Thus the question becomes as to whether or not one should view the physical asset being the same....or the price as being one whereby one should place the emphasis...
Obviously this is a hard lesson about legal debt...and perhaps a lesson to never take on debt as an individual....
.............................................................................................
But this is what is very real and exacting....
Appraisals are for real...and if one unit changes value...then in lending terms all units change in value...
And if lending constraints appear ...then valuations are exaggerated to the downside...
.........................................................................................
What has happened to real estate in some areas is somewhat analogous to the dot com 1998 2000 era.....and Rogers is correct with regards to these areas...
One will perhaps not see an opportunity to make money in real estate again as one had when subprime loans began...
And one should note that this is just another product area which has been encapsuled in an unrealistic and exuberant price change period....Boom and bust has easily been seen in oil, real estate, stock prices at various points since 1980...etc....etc...and the price changes takes years to play out...
What an opportunist on the buy side looks for is the next exuberant price supplier....such has been the case of the beginnings of sub prime lending etc....and also noting when the plate was becoming full as subprime lending was peaking....
Just another market exuberance story....is not the first one...will not be the last one....
.....................................................................................
The real question posed by Rogers should relate to the notion that price sensitivity of the core real estate valuations will have both exuberant upward and downward swings over a given period of time...
What has been in supply that was not in supply during other real estate boom bust periods is indeed the...easy money loans...that were advanced quickly because of lessor individual earnings capability standards allowances....
The question here is who wins who loses...and if there is an exuberant downward price movement ..then what would be the factors that would establish a reversal of this movement...
The other question is how sensitive is the multiplier effect of this valuation loss....and what is its actual meaning in the economy...
..................................................................................................
For example......
A condominium project has 100 units....In 2005 the appraised value was $100,000....In 2006 the appraised value was $200,000....and in 2007 the appraised value is $100,000....
What this means is that in a real sense...actual physical structure and hard assets...things are basically the same....
What has changed is the actual price...which is constantly changed by supply demand.....
Thus the question becomes as to whether or not one should view the physical asset being the same....or the price as being one whereby one should place the emphasis...
Obviously this is a hard lesson about legal debt...and perhaps a lesson to never take on debt as an individual....
.............................................................................................
But this is what is very real and exacting....
Appraisals are for real...and if one unit changes value...then in lending terms all units change in value...
And if lending constraints appear ...then valuations are exaggerated to the downside...
.........................................................................................
What has happened to real estate in some areas is somewhat analogous to the dot com 1998 2000 era.....and Rogers is correct with regards to these areas...
One will perhaps not see an opportunity to make money in real estate again as one had when subprime loans began...
And one should note that this is just another product area which has been encapsuled in an unrealistic and exuberant price change period....Boom and bust has easily been seen in oil, real estate, stock prices at various points since 1980...etc....etc...and the price changes takes years to play out...
What an opportunist on the buy side looks for is the next exuberant price supplier....such has been the case of the beginnings of sub prime lending etc....and also noting when the plate was becoming full as subprime lending was peaking....
Just another market exuberance story....is not the first one...will not be the last one....
Quote from andrasnm:
most people have stupid loans, like my colleague who has a 80/20 with the second at 13.5% currently (apparently the second is a ARM) with scenarios like this most people with stupid loans will either refi or bail before the market would stabilize. Interestingly the prices do not drop only there are no buyers to the access inventory for all these patsies houses.
He now wants to bail and give it back to the bank at which time someone will buy it who has some cash and brains not to sign a piece of shit loan like the assholes offer to sub prime (read cashless) borrowers.
The problem is there are lots of people who want a house but they have no cash or have shitty credit. The bottom line - fuckism in the US is destroying the middle class, job market and income levels are all time low and you expect people to afford houses?
Dream on, it is a neocon nightmare.....my rich friend in RE says it will be 5 years and this cyclical stuff is nothing new, happened before and will happen again....
Average people work 6 months out of the year to pay taxes and then the other 6 months goes to pay for basic survival necessities. If they have children, they also have to pay for their childrens lowlife "gagsta culture" hoodie junk material pushed on them by hollyweird. After paying for taxes and trying to maintain a lifestyle that hollyweird says everyone else is living, how do you expect the middle class to have any money left?
Quote from Wetton:
This quote from a guy who flip flops all the time. First he gives advice to hedge funds and the next minute he's asking how to calculate margin requirements. One day he's making a fortune in stocks and the next day he has no capital.
good description about jim rogers.
rogers first said he thinks chinese stocks will drop 30 to 40% then he said he close all of his stock holdings except chinese holdings.
i know he is heavily shorting housing related stocks in us. remember good traders don't predict. once they predict, they have interests in it.
Quote from sprstpd:
How about not caving in to hollyweird peer pressure? Is it that hard?
Look around America. I see people in debt. I see overconsumption, greed, nihilsm, immorality and ignorance. Evidently a lot of people are caving to Hollywood peer pressure and they are breeding like rabbits. You should watch the movie "Idiocracy". It is amusing.
Yes.Quote from Daal:
he also called $10 oil on market wizards. didnt happen. hes informative, I take him more as a encyclopedia than a forecaster
Study how he thinks outside the box... but ignore his conclusions.
You must learn to think for yourself in this way.
The idea that one can succeed by getting investment advice from your TV is hopelessly naive.
Quote from Daal:
he also called $10 oil on market wizards. didnt happen. hes informative, I take him more as a encyclopedia than a forecaster
actually crude did drop below $11 in 1998.
Dick Cheney was very angry then..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/htmlContent.jhtml?html=/archive/1998/11/26/cnoil26.html