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Jim Rogers sees US real estate crash
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
Quote from kowboy:
Interesting. Thanks for the post. The above is probably a regional thing.
The national foreclosure service listing Reo properties which I subscribe to, is showing substantially more inventory coming on the market in my area of interest, Nv, Wy, Mt, and northern Az. But no great weakening of prices and not very negotiable just yet. IMO, no fire sales so far, not worthwhile as far as buying. It may be just a matter of time.
I am experiencing the same here in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. There are plenty of homes listened, however, the prices are not very negotiable. I figure by the end of the year there should be a 40% reduction in prices in the area and it should be a full out fire sale. I'd love to snatch up some smaller houses and rent them out then buy me a nice place in South Beach.
I am keeping my spending to a minimum, I"m holding off on all big purchases. I really deserve a nice car, however, there are much bigger and better things to look forward to than a $60,000 car.
Then again, I should probably just go ahead and lease a 6 series bimmer.
Quote from a529612:
"Real estate prices will go down 40-50 percent in bubble areas. There will be massive defaults. This time it'll be worse because we haven't had this kind of speculative buying in U.S. history," Rogers said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/news..._DOUBLEFEATURE_mortgage_troubles&pageNumber=1
Man I hope so. I've been looking at houses but the prices are still sky-high in the places I want to buy. However, 40-50% is quite a drop. I am not aware of it happening in the US before. The Southern Calif bubble of the 90s was -26% and that was a decent sized bubble.
I can see it happening in LV and Phoenix, where there was a lot of speculative buying and consequently overbuilding. But not high-priced places like San Francisco because not many people were able to invest there (too expensive).
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Banks are already selling foreclosed properties on the wholesale auction market - used homes for as little as 10% of their last closing price - new homes for less than the cost of construction - to large scale vulture funds.
These vulture funds are either reselling the homes, or renting them out.
There was also a WSJ article about a guy in North Carolina who used to be a farmer, and is now buying homes, sight unseen, for - as an example that was cited in the article, $2,500 (not $25,000), when the last closing on the same house showed a closing price of $44,000. He then resells these homes to poor credit risk people at 12% interest rates, and sells the mortgage to private equity funds.
He is buying thousands of these homes a ayear, sight unseen.
Do you have a link to that article. It sounds like an interesting story...
Quote from kowboy:
Interesting. Thanks for the post. The above is probably a regional thing.
The national foreclosure service listing Reo properties which I subscribe to, is showing substantially more inventory coming on the market in my area of interest, Nv, Wy, Mt, and northern Az. But no great weakening of prices and not very negotiable just yet. IMO, no fire sales so far, not worthwhile as far as buying. It may be just a matter of time.
Nothing like a meltdown in the Silicon Valley area. Just a continued softening. The number of foreclosures seems to be rising out here but the minimum bids are a mockery -- i.e. way to close to "market value."
Quote from razorack:
I believe that on the face of it his bullishness about china going forward would seem to be contradicting his call about US housing and the flow on effects on the consumer and world economic growth. But when you consider that China now has an active policy in place to replace their export/investment model of growth of the past , with a more sustainable internal growth model, then you realise that China will be relatively immune to the falling demand for its products during the coming housing lead recession. Also with a lack of other targets for investment there will be global shifts back into China on a relative basis, these flows will keep their stock market bouyant, after the inevitable correction which he predicts
No disrepect Razorack, but the internal sales in China will not keep up with the loss of export. I am a chinese who ran around HK and South China for the 2 or 3 years before trading fulltime in HK. Manufacturing is still the lifeblood of the whole country, it won't change for the next 5 or 10 years.
There are still 800 million people in farming, while the younger generation (with whatever little education) goes to the city to do manual labour in the manufacturing sector. Do you think there the servce industry can take in all those excess labour if export start to drop? Do you think local chinese would still spend like how they do (which is not much, highest saving rate in the world) when manufacturing is going to hell?
The only thing that stop China's export going down and fast, is that you can't just replace those production capacity elsewhere overnight, will take years for other countries to build up industries, logistic and other shit. Oh, is not that bad afterall.. LOL