Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?

[hftvol]

Really? That's why Buffet went to China to tour BYD for himself? That's why Hugh Hendry traveled to China to see for himself what the macro picture looks like at shopping malls and housing construction market? That's why countless other hedge fund managers tour factories/countries, speak to politicians, central bankers because it is all not necessary? You are kidding yourself.
Sure you can comment on anything without having seen a thing, but that does not lend you a whole lot of credibility. Nor would I claim will it give you much confidence in putting a trade or larger position on.

Would you point out my "strawman arguments"? And those were not your views that you put out those were the views of others who are talking their books. Otherwise you could have argued and defended your view. Instead all you do is copy news headlines and youtube comments.

Enough said.

Quote from m22au:

"You have not even picked up on a single of my arguments"
This is inaccurate.

One does not need to have visited Japan (or any country for that matter) in order to comment on its economic situation.

Your assertion that I am a self-proclaimed expert (again) is inaccurate.

I have put forward my views on the Japanese economic situation, but sadly, you seem to have ignored this and instead have retorted with aggression and strawman arguments.

 

[Humpy]

The disputed islands rich in oil and gas could cause a fundamental change in Japan's attitude. I f Japan is forced by China to accept a humiliating treaty then there will likely to be a strong call inside Japan for re-armament.
China holds some of the trump cards. Namely owning much of USA debt and a strong economy. Japan has the backing of the USA but their incompetent politicians have wasted their strength versus muslim extremists.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Humpy:

The disputed islands rich in oil and gas could cause a fundamental change in Japan's attitude. I f Japan is forced by China to accept a humiliating treaty then there will likely to be a strong call inside Japan for re-armament.
China holds some of the trump cards. Namely owning much of USA debt and a strong economy. Japan has the backing of the USA but their incompetent politicians have wasted their strength versus muslim extremists.

oh my gosh Humpy, take me off your ignore list, and stop believing everything you see on TV

 

[hftvol]

I do not think so. Why? Because Japan shifted tactics. They appeal to the US and world at large by being "the calm and controlled guy" at the moment while they rightly point out that China time and again tries to stir up hostility by re-entering waters that are clearly disputed at the moment, by pointing out that China refuses to have the case settled by an international maritime law court. Plus Japans visit in the US. All that plays into the hands of Japan not China. China is frantically trying to pull other parties into its boat and it looks they do not have much to pull in when they have to go to New Guinea: Not the most powerful nor qualified backup I would say.

Neither China nor Japan will back down, that I can promise you, so either some bullets will be shot before heads are forced to cool off or the issue has to be settled by a third party that is acceptable to both sides. China and Japan are both cultures that have huge issues with face saving and even with agreeing to compromises. Butit does not matter much: The issue surrounding the Senkakus are hugely blown up, they have zero bearing on either nation's economic well being. The economic potential for natural resource finds is hugely overstated.

Quote from Humpy:

The disputed islands rich in oil and gas could cause a fundamental change in Japan's attitude. I f Japan is forced by China to accept a humiliating treaty then there will likely to be a strong call inside Japan for re-armament.
China holds some of the trump cards. Namely owning much of USA debt and a strong economy. Japan has the backing of the USA but their incompetent politicians have wasted their strength versus muslim extremists.

 

[Swan Noir]

I am very much enjoying reading this thread. It is causing me to, if not change my mind, at least reexamine some of what I thought I knew.

 

[Humpy]

Quote from oldtime:

oh my gosh Humpy, take me off your ignore list, and stop believing everything you see on TV

Alright OT

Let's hope it doesn't come to shooting, but I haven't much faith in the restraint of either party. Japan has always felt itself to be superior since the Mongol fleet was wrecked 100s of years ago. To meekly submit would be a big embarrassment. IMHO

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Humpy:

Alright OT

Let's hope it doesn't come to shooting, but I haven't much faith in the restraint of either party. Japan has always felt itself to be superior since the Mongol fleet was wrecked 100s of years ago. To meekly submit would be a big embarrassment. IMHO

peace my friend, I'll try to be more polite from here on, I need an English friend with a good sense of humor, just don't get arrogant on me, because you know how that sets me off. That is why we sailed away from your miserable island and started the great United States of America.

 

[m22au]

Japan's Worst Trade Deficit On Record

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-20/jpy-drops-nikkei-pops-japans-worst-trade-deficit-record

I recall Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/) stating that the JPY could remain strong while Japan had current account surpluses, but now that it is posting trade deficits, there is another reason to be bearish on JPY.

 

[clacy]

Quote from m22au:

Japan's Worst Trade Deficit On Record

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-20/jpy-drops-nikkei-pops-japans-worst-trade-deficit-record

I recall Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/) stating that the JPY could remain strong while Japan had current account surpluses, but now that it is posting trade deficits, there is another reason to be bearish on JPY.

Similar to what Kyle Bass has said as well. Essentially that will be the tipping point to get the ball rolling.

 

[m22au]

"Buried by ‘Abenomics’ – The Clock is Ticking"
www.acting-man.com/?p=26732
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1764962-buried-by-abenomics-the-clock-is-ticking

refers to these Bloomberg articles:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-turmoil-faces-being-buried-by-abenomics.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...pts-japan-banks-to-shift-to-longer-bonds.html

"Government data will probably show on Oct. 25 that nationwide consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.7 percent last month from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The rate, the BOJ’s favored measure of inflation, advanced to 0.8 percent in August, the fastest pace since November 2008. "