nothing has changed, big picture wise. The same guys who take a stab at shorting Japan still get whipped their asses each and every single time. Your points mostly do not make sense. The aging problem in Japan is irrelevant to my point of Japanese households being able to bail out their own governments. When someone dies, part of the estate goes as taxes to the government, the remainder is passed on to the descendant who is Japanese as well.
Japanese household savings are still enormous enough to delay any sort of Japanese governmental bankruptcy by a decade or more. Its utter nonsense to say that they are finished in 2-3 years. I respect Kyle Bass but on one issue he is dead wrong, which is that Japan cannot sustain itself if current accounts dip into the negative: While its true that you gotta pay for what you eat, Japanese politicians are masters at bullying their own central bank into whatever they desire. Any deficit can at worst be paid through printing money. Keep in mind the bulk can always be shouldered by its own domestic population while only the current account deficit has to be paid for. Kyle as well as many others who are so negative on Japan forget or do not even begin to understand what the average Japanese is willing to do for his/her group, and I bet my life with you that the Japanese government will make sure to have their citizens on their side when times get tough. I have lived and still live in Japan for over 13 years now (on and off) and I do not think Kyle Bass fully appreciates and understands that when Japanese see a pleading by their own government in form of an ad in taxi cabs asking their fellow citizens to buy government debt that it is a moral obligation if not even a code to oblige. Forget 2-3 years, there is NO WAY Japan will spiral towards a restructuring in such short period of time.
Dont get me wrong, I find many things in Japan and Japanese politics hilarious, illogical, inefficient. But I try to be rational myself and I do not even know where to begin with to see who from the outside of Japan may ever trouble the JGB issuance and secondary market near-term.
Japanese household savings are still enormous enough to delay any sort of Japanese governmental bankruptcy by a decade or more. Its utter nonsense to say that they are finished in 2-3 years. I respect Kyle Bass but on one issue he is dead wrong, which is that Japan cannot sustain itself if current accounts dip into the negative: While its true that you gotta pay for what you eat, Japanese politicians are masters at bullying their own central bank into whatever they desire. Any deficit can at worst be paid through printing money. Keep in mind the bulk can always be shouldered by its own domestic population while only the current account deficit has to be paid for. Kyle as well as many others who are so negative on Japan forget or do not even begin to understand what the average Japanese is willing to do for his/her group, and I bet my life with you that the Japanese government will make sure to have their citizens on their side when times get tough. I have lived and still live in Japan for over 13 years now (on and off) and I do not think Kyle Bass fully appreciates and understands that when Japanese see a pleading by their own government in form of an ad in taxi cabs asking their fellow citizens to buy government debt that it is a moral obligation if not even a code to oblige. Forget 2-3 years, there is NO WAY Japan will spiral towards a restructuring in such short period of time.
Dont get me wrong, I find many things in Japan and Japanese politics hilarious, illogical, inefficient. But I try to be rational myself and I do not even know where to begin with to see who from the outside of Japan may ever trouble the JGB issuance and secondary market near-term.