Japan has fallen victim to the Keynesian scam

[volpunter]

....and that is exactly where you should stay. Think of it as an isolated ward for the mentally challenged.

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

You should come on down to the politics forum. That's the behavior welcomed down there.

 

[Tsing Tao]

....and that is exactly where you should stay. Think of it as an isolated ward for the mentally challenged.

Too bad you can't keep me there!

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

If you're going to take from Barry's blog, you should at least cite the source. We all know you lack the cleverness to come up with that!

 

[volpunter]

does it not perfectly apply to you ;-)

Too bad you can't keep me there!



If you're going to take from Barry's blog, you should at least cite the source. We all know you lack the cleverness to come up with that!

 

[Tsing Tao]

does it not perfectly apply to you ;-)

 

[Tsing Tao]

AMARI: CONSUMPTION IS EXPANDING, THIS IS VERY GOOD TREND.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Printing money to buy stocks. Brilliant!

Plunge Protection Exposed: Bank Of Japan Stepped In A Stunning 143 Times To Buy Stocks, Prevent Drop


Since 2010, The Bank of Japan has 'openly' - no conspiracy theory here - been a buyer of Japanese stock ETFs. Their bravado increased as the years passed and Abe pressured them from their independence to 'show' that his policies were working to the point that in September 2014, The BoJ bought a record amount of Japanese stock ETFs taking its holdings to over 1.5% of the entire market cap, surpassing Nippon Life as the largest individual holder of Japanese stocks. However, as WSJ reports, The BoJ has now gone full intervention-tard - buying Japanese stocks on 76% of the days when the market opened lower.

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

The Bank of Japan’s aggressive purchasing of stock funds has helped Japanese shares climb to multiyear highs in recent months. But some within the central bank are growing uncomfortable about the fast-paced rally and the bank’s own role in fueling it.

Since Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda took office in March 2013 and introduced monetary easing of what he called a “different dimension,” the central bank has sharply increased its buying of baskets of stocks known as exchange-traded funds. By directly underpinning the market, officials have tried to encourage private investors to follow suit and put more money in stocks in the hope of stimulating the economy and increasing inflation.

During the past two years, the central bank entered the stock market roughly once every three days, picking up a total of ¥2.8 trillion ($23 billion) of ETFs that track Japan’s major stock indexes, according to Bank of Japan records. That distinguishes it from the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, both of which have bought bonds to pump up the economy but haven’t directly bought stocks.​

Analysts say the bank’s action has been a significant driver of Japan’s stock-market rally in recent months, combined with hefty purchases by the $1.1 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund. Their buying has often countered selling pressure from individuals in the market and made up for a weaker appetite among foreign investors.

The central bank has stepped in mostly when market sentiment was weak. Three-quarters of the central bank’s buying occurred on days when the benchmark Topix index opened lower, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of BOJ data.









So much for independence...

BOJ officials used to be cautious about purchasing ETFs, worried that it could distort market activities and put the central bank’s own financial health at risk. But under pressure from politicians following the global financial crisis, the bank changed its stance in late 2010.

“We led the cows to water, but they didn’t drink it, even though we told them it tasted good,” Miyako Suda, who was a board member then, wrote in a 2014 book discussing monetary easing at that time. “So we thought we should drink it ourselves, showing them it was tasty.”

* * *​

 

[Martinghoul]

So GDP is down YoY for the third quarter, all three quarters had real consumption fall of more than 2%. VAT hike seems like a really dumb idea to me. What's the purpose? Budget balancing? VAT is a lip service to balancing the budget. Increasing the prices? You can as well start rationing the goods and have scarcity-induced inflation.

It's a monumentally stupid idea, which was put into motion and pushed aggressively by Mr Tanigaki and couldn't be completely withdrawn (these are the realities of Japanese politics). It's a great relief that Abe stopped the next tranche.

 

[Martinghoul]

then you have apparently not ever run your own data analyses and statistics. No wonder you and Tsingtao talk BS all day and the only sources you quote are rantings of authors to your liking. When I say long-term that is long-term to even out the QE induced cash flows that impact currencies. Visualize the data if regression or correlation analyes are beyond your grasp: The currencies long-term are a perfect barometer of the US health of the economy. Even most of the flight-to-safety as well as "funding currencies" strongly reflect economic market cycles.

Define "long-term" in number of days/month/years. Did USDJPY at 76 "perfectly" reflect the long-term health of the Japanese economy? Why is 121 now a more accurate reflection of the long-term than the 76 a few years earlier? Since you're clearly so on top of all the analyses and statistics, show me the evidence of your claims. I'd love to see some proof of the whole "perfect barometer" business.

Now we start playing word games AGAIN? Good lord!!! Who sold at 80 and runs a large fund and does well long-term? Please educate us Martinghoul, we die to know. You talk out of your ass again.

Jeez, this is a difficult one... This is a trading forum, right? If I went short USDJPY early in 2011 at 80 or thereabouts, I could have subsequently covered my short 1 year later at arnd 76. Unless my arithmetic deceives me, this is a gain of 5% (not taking the carry into account), which is nothing to sneer at. If 1 year is not "long-term" and/or 5% is not "well", you need to define those terms. Like I said, stop throwing words and baseless claims around. Provide specifics and, at the very least, define the terminology you operate with in a clear and unambiguous manner. Otherwise, it's hard to take you seriously.

Omg, choose one, GDP growth, consumer wealth, housing prices. Long term they all correlate very highly with each other, though with slight lags.

Wait a sec, are you trying to tell me that exchange rates, sovereign bond yields, equity market levels etc accurately predict a country's future GDP growth/consumer wealth/house prices etc? In the longer term and proper context, whatever that actually means...

 

[volpunter]

you perfectly demonstrated you make up stories as you go along. No big fund ever shorted at 80 levels. The risk reward at such levels was simply poor. You talked bullshit as usual and admitted it. Glad we resolved that.

And no, I said economics and exchange rates long term correlate highly. Stop implying things I never said. Again another dose of bs on your end. Go on make us smirk more.

Define "long-term" in number of days/month/years. Did USDJPY at 76 "perfectly" reflect the long-term health of the Japanese economy? Why is 121 now a more accurate reflection of the long-term than the 76 a few years earlier? Since you're clearly so on top of all the analyses and statistics, show me the evidence of your claims. I'd love to see some proof of the whole "perfect barometer" business.

Jeez, this is a difficult one... This is a trading forum, right? If I went short USDJPY early in 2011 at 80 or thereabouts, I could have subsequently covered my short 1 year later at arnd 76. Unless my arithmetic deceives me, this is a gain of 5% (not taking the carry into account), which is nothing to sneer at. If 1 year is not "long-term" and/or 5% is not "well", you need to define those terms. Like I said, stop throwing words and baseless claims around. Provide specifics and, at the very least, define the terminology you operate with in a clear and unambiguous manner. Otherwise, it's hard to take you seriously.

Wait a sec, are you trying to tell me that exchange rates, sovereign bond yields, equity market levels etc accurately predict a country's future GDP growth/consumer wealth/house prices etc? In the longer term and proper context, whatever that actually means...

 

[Martinghoul]

you perfectly demonstrated you make up stories as you go along. No big fund ever shorted at 80 levels. The risk reward at such levels was simply poor. You talked bullshit as usual and admitted it. Glad we resolved that.

Stop making me laugh... Answer at least one of my questions, if you want to continue with this discussion.

And no, I said economics and exchange rates long term correlate highly. Stop implying things I never said. Again another dose of bs on your end. Go on make us smirk more.

You specifically referred to "currency levels, yield levels, equity levels" in your post #264 and "GDP growth, consumer wealth, housing prices" in your post #266. Which of those things did you never say?