January Trading Journals
- Thread starter Hitman
- Start date
Candle:
Just went through your trades in detail, and of course, I have some questions:
1) Is MSFT one of your basket stocks? I remember you posting about it before and I would imagine that you are intimately familiar with the stock and its action.
I have been desperately searching for a few good go-to stocks myself. And I think having a couple is vital to survive a tough market like this.
2) I am very very curious where you took profit on MSFT on that breakout and why. This is precisely when I get into trouble when I play fill the gap type of breakout's. I think it is good for a half point pop but it goes all the way to unchanged. I think it is good for a one point move it pops half a point then come all the way back in. If you pared out along the way what were your exits and why?
3) I am very curious where you took profit on MSFT on that afternoon sell-off. Because I remember vividly that the futures looked like it was almost guaranteed to close on a low but at 3:30 there was a pretty violent squeeze which definitely caught me off guard as I was still slightly short.
The way I trade, assuming I didn't get mooked out when MSFT made a first squeeze around 2:40, I would cover the whole thing when MSFT made a second attempt to break the low at 65.5 and failed, and of course I probably would have pared some out on the first attempt already. Obviously, the more often you trade the stock, a stronger feeling you will develop for its price action, but I am really curious on trade/size management in this situation as there was no support in sight and the stock did not free fall.
Thank you for your time, those details of execution are the things that can truly make a difference in the way I trade. The more detail you can go into, the better. That MSFT short was the type of short I never make money in (hell lately I have had stocks going straight down on the 5 minute chart without a single green candle and I still managed to lose money in them), either I get squeezed out too early barely recovering my bullet cost or I cover too late and lose a substantial portion of the profit.
Just went through your trades in detail, and of course, I have some questions:
1) Is MSFT one of your basket stocks? I remember you posting about it before and I would imagine that you are intimately familiar with the stock and its action.
I have been desperately searching for a few good go-to stocks myself. And I think having a couple is vital to survive a tough market like this.
2) I am very very curious where you took profit on MSFT on that breakout and why. This is precisely when I get into trouble when I play fill the gap type of breakout's. I think it is good for a half point pop but it goes all the way to unchanged. I think it is good for a one point move it pops half a point then come all the way back in. If you pared out along the way what were your exits and why?
3) I am very curious where you took profit on MSFT on that afternoon sell-off. Because I remember vividly that the futures looked like it was almost guaranteed to close on a low but at 3:30 there was a pretty violent squeeze which definitely caught me off guard as I was still slightly short.
The way I trade, assuming I didn't get mooked out when MSFT made a first squeeze around 2:40, I would cover the whole thing when MSFT made a second attempt to break the low at 65.5 and failed, and of course I probably would have pared some out on the first attempt already. Obviously, the more often you trade the stock, a stronger feeling you will develop for its price action, but I am really curious on trade/size management in this situation as there was no support in sight and the stock did not free fall.
Thank you for your time, those details of execution are the things that can truly make a difference in the way I trade. The more detail you can go into, the better. That MSFT short was the type of short I never make money in (hell lately I have had stocks going straight down on the 5 minute chart without a single green candle and I still managed to lose money in them), either I get squeezed out too early barely recovering my bullet cost or I cover too late and lose a substantial portion of the profit.
Hitman........this is what I see. You have all the talent and mental capacity for being a long-term profitable trader. All you are lacking is the battle scars of going thru tough trading periods. I don't recall you having any diaster type trades because of a lack of trading discipline ,you are like any professional who starts to question parts of their game. Like a hitter who is in a batting slump who starts fickling with their stance, but every professional goes thru it and must keep playing and keep doing the same things that got them to that level.All I see lacking is the confidence in yourself and your trading style to realize at the end of the year you will reach your profit goals.I know it's easy for me to state this but take it from a veteran ,there is going to be tough trading periods and these times will pass.You will have your good months and the end result is your performance will probably match what you did last year.It took me a few years to realize this and you cannot predict when those tough trading conditions will happen,so why fight it so hard? Stay with your system ...refine it.....yes , if you think it can be improved but as long as you stay consistent, market conditions will change again and you will be consistently taking money from the market again.
The market is getting less orderflow each day as less traders are trading do to cutting buying power from there firms also hedge funds are not in a panic to buy and sell witch gives them a edge of taking there time to fill large orders. The other problem is specialists have been burned by to many positions over the last few weeks that there bosses don't want them trading off orderflow. This all makes daytrading much harder it's not impossible but very difficult. Trading always comes down to orderflow that is what bids and offers show and charts show. All this is a product of hedge funds trading off fundamentals. We need them to tell us what to do. If you look at news the last couple weeks stocks don't react to it anymore unless it is major news.
***Why? Please give some reasons. It's only been a few weeks into this new year. How can you already throw in the towel and assume everyone's destined to falter like you have thus far?***
January is the most important month of the year. Now how many people on this board are on track to make what they made last January? (Assuming you had a successful year in 2001) Raise your hand please.
I can tell you that most size traders at my firm are NOT EVEN CLOSE to what they made last January, as a matter of fact many are down, some got blown out.
Hell last January was my first profitable month ever and I pulled off just 3K, going into this month I thought I would beat that number with my eyes closed, boy was I wrong.
For many traders, January is often THE MOST PROFITABLE MONTH of the year, and by the end of April, you HAVE TO make at least 50% of your year on the spot. In 2001, the January -> April stretch felt almost like 1999/2000 volatility, the heavy hitters at my firm averaged six figures across those months, not going to happen this year.
Hence my prediction, 2002 will make 2001 feel like 2000 when we had 2001. While I may not be a great trader, I can assure you that when I say things are rough, you won't see everyone else making a killing.
Without the gift months like Jan-April and to a lesser extent September, you won't see a lot of career breakout's this year.
For your information, Worldco's profitable before commissions average for last week was close to 65%, which basically say out of 2 traders probably 1 made money after commissions, which probably indicate that the firm lost money because the top 30's had something like 10-15K guys at the top and 1.5-2.5K guys at the bottom.
Do the math, the firm probably broke even as far as profit
before commission is concerned, which means it probably lost money as it ate the huge operating expenses. I mean, I won't be surprised if the firm sugar coated the numbers to maintain a high level of confidence, as just about everyone I spoke to lost money. When this happens in January, just imagine what the summer will be like.
The truth is a lot of people (myself included) had too much carry over's from high momentum markets, and those that do not adjust will not survive this year. I predict that if the current market conditions lasts, our firm will let go a lot of people before the year is over.
January is the most important month of the year. Now how many people on this board are on track to make what they made last January? (Assuming you had a successful year in 2001) Raise your hand please.
I can tell you that most size traders at my firm are NOT EVEN CLOSE to what they made last January, as a matter of fact many are down, some got blown out.
Hell last January was my first profitable month ever and I pulled off just 3K, going into this month I thought I would beat that number with my eyes closed, boy was I wrong.
For many traders, January is often THE MOST PROFITABLE MONTH of the year, and by the end of April, you HAVE TO make at least 50% of your year on the spot. In 2001, the January -> April stretch felt almost like 1999/2000 volatility, the heavy hitters at my firm averaged six figures across those months, not going to happen this year.
Hence my prediction, 2002 will make 2001 feel like 2000 when we had 2001. While I may not be a great trader, I can assure you that when I say things are rough, you won't see everyone else making a killing.
Without the gift months like Jan-April and to a lesser extent September, you won't see a lot of career breakout's this year.
For your information, Worldco's profitable before commissions average for last week was close to 65%, which basically say out of 2 traders probably 1 made money after commissions, which probably indicate that the firm lost money because the top 30's had something like 10-15K guys at the top and 1.5-2.5K guys at the bottom.
Do the math, the firm probably broke even as far as profit
before commission is concerned, which means it probably lost money as it ate the huge operating expenses. I mean, I won't be surprised if the firm sugar coated the numbers to maintain a high level of confidence, as just about everyone I spoke to lost money. When this happens in January, just imagine what the summer will be like.
The truth is a lot of people (myself included) had too much carry over's from high momentum markets, and those that do not adjust will not survive this year. I predict that if the current market conditions lasts, our firm will let go a lot of people before the year is over.
1. I never gave you any advice. It was not intended for you as I indicated in my post, and the reason was, I never believed you would read it with any other inclination than to dismiss it.
2. What I said was not taken out of the books. This is MY experience of dealing with slumps, and I've been through many of them.
3. Generic... well, maybe since it was written at the time as generic algorithm. Each case has particulars, yours has them, too, and I can see them clearly. I could give detailed analysis, point by point, of where you go wrong and what should be done to change the mindset - and those would be absolutely practical things, not vague dos and don'ts. But why bother? You are fixated on idea that all you need is better setup or techniques... many on this board see the flaw of this idea. They tried to point you in right direction and made great points and you dismissed every single one of those advices, with so great anger and so little respect. Just think of this: among those that posted here there are many, me included, that survived many market turns. You might or might not find value in what they post, but why display such hostiltiy and disrespect?
4. As to posting the trades, review them... what for? My trades are based on entirely different system than yours. What, you would drop what you do and start learning whole new system? Apparently not, and there is most likely no need for this. As I and many others said, it's not the system.
5. Like with my previous post, I don't really expect you to find any value in this one (if you do it will show in starting asking questions instead of attacking). So don't bother to label it as garbage, we know already
Best regards,
Vadym
2. What I said was not taken out of the books. This is MY experience of dealing with slumps, and I've been through many of them.
3. Generic... well, maybe since it was written at the time as generic algorithm. Each case has particulars, yours has them, too, and I can see them clearly. I could give detailed analysis, point by point, of where you go wrong and what should be done to change the mindset - and those would be absolutely practical things, not vague dos and don'ts. But why bother? You are fixated on idea that all you need is better setup or techniques... many on this board see the flaw of this idea. They tried to point you in right direction and made great points and you dismissed every single one of those advices, with so great anger and so little respect. Just think of this: among those that posted here there are many, me included, that survived many market turns. You might or might not find value in what they post, but why display such hostiltiy and disrespect?
4. As to posting the trades, review them... what for? My trades are based on entirely different system than yours. What, you would drop what you do and start learning whole new system? Apparently not, and there is most likely no need for this. As I and many others said, it's not the system.
5. Like with my previous post, I don't really expect you to find any value in this one (if you do it will show in starting asking questions instead of attacking). So don't bother to label it as garbage, we know already
Best regards,
Vadym
I've spoke to some of the biggest traders they advised me to sit on my hands and just waited for the volume to start increasing. The traders I spoke to on a good year make 8 to 9 figures. When the volume starts to pick up I will be trading there money until then 100 share lots. Its a good time to learn to prepare for a good market and milk it for what it is worth.
Being relatively new to message boards I have tremendous difficulty at times trying to distinguish the "tone" of posts. Without the person being physically present for eye contact, body language, etc., one cannot complete the whole intent. One of my early posts on another thread was taken for something it wasn't because of my weak attempt at humor (lack of). Often I find myself not liking a post just because of wording instead of content. Because you're informative and honest from what I can tell(read), it outweighs your occasional callousness and I will continue to value your posts. When I lost a substantial amount of money (which I hope you never will) it bled into every aspect of my life and will show up EVERYWHERE. I hope you right you're ship. Goodluck.