Don't lose sight of the fundamentals.
I sell put spreads on rut a lot for consistent monthly profits. I have a pretty good feel for it.
I chose not to sell June puts this round when my May's expired because we are now totally far and away from the fundamentals.
If there is even a decent possibility of rut dropping 10% in the month, I don't sell insurance on it.
Here is my record on it this year (below)