IWM setup 5/7/11

[sirmagic]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Indeed. We should retest the recent new highs. But the pullback isn't over yet. I have a feeling we have one flush-out left. One big down day to trap all the bears. Who then give up as we rally to new highs... and when the bears are all gone, it is finally time to short.

I looked at all the variables and suspect the more likely scenario is that we move up from here.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from sirmagic:

Like I said, I didnt come here to talk about truisms or whatever. I wish I could follow along with what you are saying, but I dont wish to put any more thought into it and waste bandwidth. Honestly, the reason why I posted this was to have people react to my statements, but I dont know where we are going with this...i.e.truisms, etc. I just want to post a setup and talk it out a bit rather then debate philosophy or banter on anything else.

I never have positions going into a new week. Like I said, I just draw up a plan, study it and then modify it as I go.

I reacted to your statement by asking what your plan would be under certain scenarios, so you already got the reaction you wanted. What, did you want someone to say "Holy crap, three higher highs and a possible third higher low, it must be ready to make another high! Brilliant analysis!"? Do you know how many of those formations fail and how many succeed and what are the characteristics of those that succeed and those that fail? If not, what's the basis for saying it will make a new high? And what if it only comes within a tick of making a new high? Does that mean you shouldn't have been long on the way up? We're about 4-5% off the most recent highs and there's a heck of a lot of short-term trades in a 4-5% move, up or down, so for a short-term trader to even care about whether we move up 2%, 3% or all the way to new highs doesn't make sense. A 1% move in an index is huge to a short-term trader.


You should already be long with the stop at the recent low, but the prospects for a new high actually look worse than the prospects for a continuation of the move down, all things being equal. The chart is practically screaming that. I already said that earlier, so if you really wanted to just talk about your chart analysis, you would have asked me why. You just want to state your bias, not actually discuss why your bias might be wrong. Which is fine, but it's very different from wanting to have an actual discussion about a chart and the likely future progression of prices.

 

[sirmagic]

I have no idea why you just wrote that long rambling essay. It has nothing to do with whats being discussed and idont have the time to figure it out

 

[RCG Trader]

You will have a change to get long this next week maybe, no high probability shorts in sight.

 

[sirmagic]

Over the short term i expect a bump up but from a point of investment i am very bearish. My belief is for a strong correction if not an outright recession...maybe in a few months or 2012

 

[logic_man]

Quote from sirmagic:

I have no idea

You could have stopped right there.

Was that response short enough for ya?

 

[sirmagic]

Actually, that would not be an accurate statement. I do have at least an idea. Here is another one of many things that I consider. Its plain to see what is happening in this chart.



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[failed_trad3r]

Quote from sirmagic:

Actually, that would not be an accurate statement. I do have at least an idea. Here is another one of many things that I consider. Its plain to see what is happening in this chart.



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trendlines are not consistent

 

[sirmagic]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

trendlines are not consistent

I know their not, but if price falls below that line then it doesnt take a genius to know whats going on.

 

[Magic8]

Quote from sirmagic:

Actually, that would not be an accurate statement. I do have at least an idea. Here is another one of many things that I consider. Its plain to see what is happening in this chart.



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Looks like it moves up and down. Sometimes way up, sometimes way down. Technical analysis = CRAP, as is the title of another thread. Good luck, though.