IWM setup 5/7/11

[logic_man]

Quote from sirmagic:

No. Its your argumentative behavior in every thread you have authored on this board...its how you word your statements which are designed to provoke a negative response...and its the multiple aliases that make me believe you are a troll. Fact is, i have a lot more information besides these two charts to post and maybe it would benefit everyone here if you stopped trolling. Im not going to be here all the time to respond so lets make the most of this time. It looks like you are on here all the time though even on mothers day writing long rambling essays and rants about nothing.

Multiple aliases? That's some great investigating you've done there. About on par with your ability to read a chart.

As for "making the most of the time" you are here, what is there to make of it? An opinion backed by two amateur hour charts that someone with a week of trading experience could make? If you do happen to last in the trading game, even you will look back at those charts and laugh one day.

And since I don't live in my mother's basement, it hardly matters if it's Mother's Day or not, since my mother lives thousands of miles away from where I live and we've already had a nice phone conversation.

 

[sirmagic]

I will add to this thread when i am less engaged. My mother is right in front of me
. Sorry to hear you couldnt see your mother today. I make it a point to see mine every year at this time and very proud to do so. My advice. Get a plane ticket next time when you aint trollin and see some loved ones

Quote from logic_man:

Multiple aliases? That's some great investigating you've done there. About on par with your ability to read a chart.

As for "making the most of the time" you are here, what is there to make of it? An opinion backed by two amateur hour charts that someone with a week of trading experience could make? If you do happen to last in the trading game, even you will look back at those charts and laugh one day.

And since I don't live in my mother's basement, it hardly matters if it's Mother's Day or not, since my mother lives thousands of miles away from where I live and we've already had a nice phone conversation.

 

[sirmagic]

I will add to this thread when i am less engaged. My mother is right in front of me
. Sorry to hear you couldnt see your mother today. I make it a point to see mine every year at this time and very proud to do so. My advice. Get a plane ticket next time when you aint trollin and see some loved ones

Quote from logic_man:

Multiple aliases? That's some great investigating you've done there. About on par with your ability to read a chart.

As for "making the most of the time" you are here, what is there to make of it? An opinion backed by two amateur hour charts that someone with a week of trading experience could make? If you do happen to last in the trading game, even you will look back at those charts and laugh one day.

And since I don't live in my mother's basement, it hardly matters if it's Mother's Day or not, since my mother lives thousands of miles away from where I live and we've already had a nice phone conversation.

 

[sirmagic]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I think the "risk off" trade is on which means small caps will go lower short term. So I'm guessing we retest the lows on your chart and then we see whether it breaks or not.

Even if I'm wrong I don't think the setup warrants trading right now. The risk/reward just isn't there.

I do have a system and one of the variables in that system is the dollar. The dollar I have correlated to two other indexes that would seem unrelated to the casual observer. To predict the direction of the dollar I extrapolate from those two other indexes. Basically if the dollar goes down, then we are in for a rally. The rally I believe will be short term. This year has the look and feel of 2007 (and I believe 2012 will have the look and feel of 2008) so I am expecting a much larger correction at some point in the next few weeks. The financials have been downtrending for quite a while and there has been substantial sector rotation into defensives.



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The risk off trade isnt done just yet. I think we will be making new highs shortly on the IWM...

 

[sirmagic]

Here is another variable in my system. Market breadth (or market breath) is another.

My expectation is for this index to get up to probably around 60 or so before making the next turn.



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[sirmagic]

I am long at the current time via TNA.



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[sirmagic]

I am going to hold my long in the TNA until noted otherwise. I'll try to update my exit in real time, but honestly, this website is not so high on the list of priorities. My guess is the IWM will return to its original high and probably higher.

 

[sirmagic]

Yesterday I had posted at 10:52am that I was long the TNA and going to hold it. At that point, the TNA was trading around 85. The TNA is now 91.48 as of this post and appears to be moving up.

My raw thoughts are:

1) This is a weak move up with only 70% of the market participating.

2) There is obvious sector rotation going on and utilities, staples, healthcare stocks seem to be favored. The financials sector looks to be broken. This is the last stage in the business cycle and what usually follows is a major pullback in the economy&markets.

3) I believe that price will reach previous swing highs around 96 on the TNA or 86-87 area on the IWM

4) There is a gap on the dollar index below the current price I believe will be filled. There is gap on the oil charts up top that I expect will be filled.

5) There are many stocks out there which are not behaving so my suggested method for playing the market is through etfs versus individual stocks.

6) I am expecting a correction to start at some point in the next 30 days. I expect price to get back to or near Decembers levels. That would be around 72 on the IWM. I have a feeling that it won't start in May, but in June.

7) The IWM looks to be a few more days out before we can start considering it to be overbought.

When we get to around the last highs then I will be more actively looking to sell my position and go short. I'll try to update this thread once a day for those truly interested.

I will change my outlook at anytime and may not be able to post updates. If I do see price making a major reversal contrary to my outlook then you can safely assume that I have probably changed my outlook.

Please feel free to provide feedback, questions, etc.

 

[sirmagic]

I am going to continue this thread in the journal section. Here is the link to the new thread.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=220396

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

if we break the 835-830 range... Russell is officially in the friend zone..