I've signed up with Al Brook's Price Action course

Frederick Foresight said:
The distance? Yes, somewhat.
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Gaslight Capital said:
Looking for $80.46 or close to it on AMD before the end of the week if the market holds together. If the market can hold together we may will see it today. Trading between $78 and $78.45 now.
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Would it be too much for you if I were to add that in addition to the $80.46 price target on AMD that I expect it to trade at least to that price between 10:41 AM and 12:21 PM today, Friday July 31, 2020 if not before?

Important to consider along with this that one cannot predict the future of market behavior. But one can calculate and assign probabilities.
 
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Hey Cap,

after the first 2 bear bars of ES in rth this morning, we got that pause for a few bars. Was it reasonable to expect a MM in that scenario? Was it better than 50/50 probability?
 
speedo said:
GL, you should start your own thread. It's likely to attract more traders than trolls....not that it won't attract trolls, they infest the place. But it's easy to put them on ignore.
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I could do that but I'd probably abandon it rather quickly. I would have to devise a frame that would keep me engaged. Also, I am not sure very many would be interested in a thread discussion by a technical "point and click" trader rather than an HFT algo developer.
 
newbie463 said:
Hey Cap,

after the first 2 bear bars of ES in rth this morning, we got that pause for a few bars. Was it reasonable to expect a MM in that scenario? Was it better than 50/50 probability?
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The highest probability MM was a measured move of the first bear bar. Once two consecutive bear trend bars close near their respective lows, then, per Brooks's trading course, there exists at least a 60% chance of a measured move of those two trend bars before price would trade above the high of the first trend bar. So, using Brooks's terminology, you could sell the close of the second trend bar, or you could place a sell stop below the low of the second trend bar, and in either case you would place a stop loss order a tick above the high of the first trend bar. The caveat in such situations is you should only take the trade if you can afford the risk. That trade had a 17.25 point risk. Brooks is very clear on this throughout his course.
 
Gaslight Capital said:
The highest probability MM was a measured move of the first bear bar. Once two consecutive bear trend bars close near their respective lows, then, per Brooks's trading course, there exists at least a 60% chance of a measured move of those two trend bars before price would trade above the high of the first trend bar. So, using Brooks's terminology, you could sell the close of the second trend bar, or you could place a sell stop below the low of the second trend bar, and in either case you would place a stop loss order a tick above the high of the first trend bar. The caveat in such situations is you should only take the trade if you can afford the risk. That trade had a 17.25 point risk. Brooks is very clear on this throughout his course.
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Alternately, waiting for the pullback to the 38.2 provided a swing entry with an initial stop over the swing for initial risk of 6 1/2 points, actual risk turned out to be 1 point. The entry easily exceeded the measured move. The subsequent 50% pull back for an 11:35 entry hit the first target at 2 tick front run of the low and then for another at the 23.6 extension annotated with the red diamonds. I was too tired to hang in there in the afternoon but there was a solid Higher Low Major Trend Reversal of the failed attempt at a new low as indicated by the green arrow. That trade yielded from modest targets to the moon depending on how the trade was managed as it never took out a major swing low.

upload_2020-7-31_21-12-53.png
 
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speedo said:
Alternately, waiting for the pullback to the 38.2 provided a swing entry with an initial stop over the swing for initial risk of 6 1/2 points, actual risk turned out to be 1 point. The entry easily exceeded the measured move. The subsequent 50% pull back for an 11:35 entry hit the first target at 2 tick front run of the low and then for another at the 23.6 extension annotated with the red diamonds. I was too tired to hang in there in the afternoon but there was a solid Higher Low Major Trend Reversal of the failed attempt at a new low as indicated by the green arrow. That trade yielded from modest targets to the moon depending on how the trade was managed as it never took out a major swing low.

View attachment 236476
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Speedo,
thanks for the comments. im getting better and better picking my entries. i still struggle selecting targets. Would any of you guys (Speedo, Volpri, Gaslight, others) be willing to discuss possible targets for the green arrow higher low (MTR) buy?

generally im watching areas like yesterdays high, low, close and maybe pivots. i realize of course price action can dictate targets as well, but just in the beginning, using the green arrow above, what is your target and why? i was thinking at least 2 pushes up, but i hate to give anything back once it goes my way. so, i cut my gainers short more than i would like.

also, the green arrow bar is the signal bar, not the entry bar, correct? i would not have had the confidence to enter on the green arrow bar. i would have been stopped into a buy 2 bars later.

thanks!
 
newbie463 said:
Speedo,
thanks for the comments. im getting better and better picking my entries. i still struggle selecting targets. Would any of you guys (Speedo, Volpri, Gaslight, others) be willing to discuss possible targets for the green arrow higher low (MTR) buy?

generally im watching areas like yesterdays high, low, close and maybe pivots. i realize of course price action can dictate targets as well, but just in the beginning, using the green arrow above, what is your target and why? i was thinking at least 2 pushes up, but i hate to give anything back once it goes my way. so, i cut my gainers short more than i would like.

also, the green arrow bar is the signal bar, not the entry bar, correct? i would not have had the confidence to enter on the green arrow bar. i would have been stopped into a buy 2 bars later.

thanks!
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As you likely know by now, the trend reversal could have easily have turned into a trading range as a bull trend. I did not take the trade as I already quit for the day but I would treat it as any pull back trade with the exception of going to break even after taking profit on the first lot as it is a counter trend trade.....Yes the arrow was the signal bar so takeout of that bar puts you in at 22 1/4, first target a 2 tick front run of the prior high which would be 29, so stop goes to BE with next target a 2 tick front run of the 23.6 extension which would be 33, next 38.2 extension 35 1/2. Had you had runners, you could have used a price action stop which would never have been taken out as there was never a takeout of a major swing low.

If you want to know more about pullback trades and their targets, I suggest the David Halsey book, Trading the Measured Move.
 
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