I've signed up with Al Brook's Price Action course
- Thread starter TimtheEnchanter
- Start date
See, that's the thing: the odds. One of the things I take issue with is the specificity with which some people assign probabilities to the market. The probabilities in such a dynamic environment are just not sufficiently stable to afford the kind of precision that some people believe exists. My own view is that there is more uncertainty than numeric probability in the market. So while you might be able to estimate the balance of probability with some reasonable level of confidence, I can't help but think that people who forecast share prices to the penny with numeric probability specificity are exhibiting the fact that they don't know what they don't know.
"Balance of probability" is more of a go or no-go kind of thing with better than even odds. People putting a precise number on the odds makes me think that there is a 94.786% chance that these people don't know what they don't know. Just my opinion, of course.
And now, if no one refers to me going forward, I will do my best to stay away from this thread.
Well said.
Who would have thought for the last four days Australian gold index would fall while the price of gold was rising?
The probabilities were ASX gold would rise in tandem but it did the exact opposite.
As you mention Fred, ".....there is more uncertainty than numeric probability in the market." Or said another way, "there is more uncertainty than probability." because the way the market operates, it does what's least expected.
So, trading bar by bar is not only hard work, time consuming, but imo has more uncertainty than what Al Brooks would portray.
Precision does exist much more than what facts suggest..
I've seen it done elsewhere, publicly, and days in advance.......reversal price forecast to a quarter point accuracy on a 5 digit index. He even showed me how he did it and I was stunned to see such "coincidences of precision".
It doesn't work all the time.
Hindsight and cherry picking are wonderful things.
Making posts in a public forum days in ADVANCE isn't cherry picking.
Those who are bliind think that it isn't possible for anyone in the world to ever see.
Perhaps you should reread what you wrote and think about it for a moment.
I once got 4 numbers on a six number lottery ticket. It doesn't happen all the time. Some people get all six numbers. They seldom repeat the feat.
Have you heard of luck, coincidence.
Mate there are days I make multiple multiple thousands of dollars a day, but would I tell you about my losing days?