IV/HV options ranking
- Thread starter eutrader
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http://www.volatilitytrading.net/options/optionsinfo.htm seems very interesting. Thanks!
In my opinion IV and HV are not related, and the methods based on their relative values provide random results, in the same manner that betting on the IV reversal to the mean does.
In my opinion IV and HV are not related, and the methods based on their relative values provide random results, in the same manner that betting on the IV reversal to the mean does.
Quote from Bben1006:
Try
http://www.optionstrategist.com/free/analysis/data/index.html
or
even, http://www.volatilitytrading.net/options/optionsinfo.htm
~B:
So for example, a portfolio of straddle trades based on a screen for high relative IV would tend to lose money based on your experience?
If IV is in a high percentile of its past values there is no guarantee when and if it will drop.
If it follows a pattern, i.e. it is before the earnings report, the IV raised as it did before past earnings reports, and in the past it dropped immediately after the report was issued, still there is no guarantee if and when it will drop again.
You can play it, but better make sure you use stop losses and good money management.
I'm not saying that "a portfolio of straddle trades based on a screen for high relative IV would tend to lose money", I'm saying that if applied mechanically or randomly, in long run it should have zero expectancy (ignoring slippage and commissions), in my opinion.
IV is determined by the option's price, while HV is determined by the underlying's price action. The option's price is determined by the underlying's price (among others), but IV and HV don't correlate beyond chance.
Some might disagree, i.e. McMillan in his Bible.
If it follows a pattern, i.e. it is before the earnings report, the IV raised as it did before past earnings reports, and in the past it dropped immediately after the report was issued, still there is no guarantee if and when it will drop again.
You can play it, but better make sure you use stop losses and good money management.
I'm not saying that "a portfolio of straddle trades based on a screen for high relative IV would tend to lose money", I'm saying that if applied mechanically or randomly, in long run it should have zero expectancy (ignoring slippage and commissions), in my opinion.
IV is determined by the option's price, while HV is determined by the underlying's price action. The option's price is determined by the underlying's price (among others), but IV and HV don't correlate beyond chance.
Some might disagree, i.e. McMillan in his Bible.
www.poweropt.com scans options on any cruteria.
very possible . Which vols is lagging and which one is leading here?
In case of rising IV (without scheduled event date) , the HV will catch up after hidden news comes out, when stock moves and owner of short combo lose big on the "overvalue" ratio.
besides , which HV to use , 10,20,30d ?
IMO , only pre and after report IV action is cyclical/predictable (most of the times) , but its has nothing to do with HV/IV ratio.