IV/HV options ranking

[cnms2]

SLB closed Friday at $122.18, and it seems to be at a higher probability long entry point (one week after my first assessment).

Earnings 4/25, IV 31.3% (1 yr: 22-40, 3 mo: 27-40). I'll probably buy the Apr 110 calls (IV should go up pre-earnings).

I'll size based on the underlying ~$4 stop loss, i.e. 3 contracts / $1,000 risk (delta .88). I'll exit earlier if price action doesn't confirm. Target ~$133-134 in 5-10 trading days.

We'll see ...

Quote from cnms2:

...
SLB looks bullish, but I'd expect a short term small pull back ($121-122 level; strong support around $117), then wait for a bullish confirmation for a long entry. Its IV=31% is in its 1 year 50-60% percentile.

Quote from ozzy:

SLB CS ~ 127-130 (range). Keep an eye on it. Also on the keep an eye out for CS's on the indexes we should put a short term high (possibly longer term) this week.

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from cnms2:

SLB closed Friday at $122.18, and it seems to be at a higher probability long entry point (one week after my first assessment).

Earnings 4/25, IV 31.3% (1 yr: 22-40, 3 mo: 27-40). I'll probably buy the Apr 110 calls (IV should go up pre-earnings).

I'll size based on the underlying ~$4 stop loss, i.e. 3 contracts / $1,000 (delta .88). I'll exit earlier if price action doesn't confirm. Target ~$133-134 in 5-10 trading days.

We'll see ...

[/QUOTE]

c2 , are u sure about APR calls ? The 4/25 report date make it MAY expiration , why you want to buy APR options then ? Not so much pre-report IV run here ; currently at 30 will go to around 33-36 before report.

 

[cnms2]

This SLB Apr 110 calls is a directional play. My time frame for this trade is: 5-6 days, up to 10. I don't expect IV to drop pre-earnings, so I'm ok with straight calls.

Quote from IV_Trader:



c2 , are u sure about APR calls ? The 4/25 report date make it MAY expiration , why you want to buy APR options then ? Not so much pre-report IV run here ; currently at 30 will go to around 33-36 before report.

 

[cnms2]

5 days from opening, this trade behaves well and I'm sticking to my trade plan.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1026192>

Quote from cnms2:

SLB closed Friday at $122.18, and it seems to be at a higher probability long entry point (one week after my first assessment).

Earnings 4/25, IV 31.3% (1 yr: 22-40, 3 mo: 27-40). I'll probably buy the Apr 110 calls (IV should go up pre-earnings).

I'll size based on the underlying ~$4 stop loss, i.e. 3 contracts / $1,000 risk (delta .88). I'll exit earlier if price action doesn't confirm. Target ~$133-134 in 5-10 trading days.

We'll see ...

Quote from cnms2:

What does CS stand for?

SLB looks bullish, but I'd expect a short term small pull back ($121-122 level; strong support around $117), then wait for a bullish confirmation for a long entry. Its IV=31% is in its 1 year 50-60% percentile.

Quote from ozzy:

SLB CS ~ 127-130 (range). Keep an eye on it. Also on the keep an eye out for CS's on the indexes we should put a short term high (possibly longer term) this week.

 

[cnms2]

2 pm EST: closed SLB for $4,452.81 profit over 1 week (initial stop loss ~ $2,000).

There's a high probability of short term retracement.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1028143>