It's OVER

DrPepper · Nov 22, 2008

Citibank is going down, as are the big 3 automakers and Moody's states a record number of companies are on the verge of bankruptcy. This is going to be the worst Christmas for retailers in many years and a lot of companies will stay in the red well after black Friday. Our bankrupt government is over $10 trillion dollars in debt and can't keep bailing out companies with money it does not have. The fundamental difference between this bear market and those in recent memory is our astronomical national debt. Our friends in China and the mid-East are not going to keep buying our debt. They are going to put more of their money into real assets like gold (while it lasts). I went long gold earlier this week and am planning to buy an inverse retail sector ETF before black Friday.

DrPepper · Nov 22, 2008

But then again, I usually buy at the top and sell at the bottom, so don't take my advice.

riskfreetrading · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from William Rennick:

Nice post but I'm staying short until I see frozen conc. orange juice break through a bollinger band, or at least show increased volume for the coming holdays. One caveat is a rumor that Oprah will feature a cranberry sauce using FCOJ as an ingredient. I'm not buyibg until I actually see the show. I got killed on pork bellys last month when a rumor about Wendys ditching the Baconator hit the street.

Bill:

I did not know you trade commodities.
Could you start an ET thread like the urgent rennick one? I will NOT post my calls in it as I do not trade them, but I will be a supportive reader! I am serious.

riskfreetrading · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from piezoe:

... They overshoot going one way or the other. ....

Market overshoot tops. Are you sure that they overshoot bottoms?

A top always contain fluff. A bear market's role is to establish a rock to build on. Are you saying that a previous bear market can leave some undone work?

Allspread · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from DrPepper:

Citibank is going down, as are the big 3 automakers and Moody's states a record number of companies are on the verge of bankruptcy. This is going to be the worst Christmas for retailers in many years and a lot of companies will stay in the red well after black Friday. Our bankrupt government is over $10 trillion dollars in debt and can't keep bailing out companies with money it does not have. The fundamental difference between this bear market and those in recent memory is our astronomical national debt. Our friends in China and the mid-East are not going to keep buying our debt. They are going to put more of their money into real assets like gold (while it lasts). I went long gold earlier this week and am planning to buy an inverse retail sector ETF before black Friday.

What you said...and some of these geniuses STILL think we've hit a bottom!

I have no idea where the bottom is, and I'm not going to guess. Wherever it is, it hasn't happened yet.

For right now I'm going to continue putting on bearish option positions on ETF's and watch the overall market fluctuate and continue to fall. I'll take whatever the market wants to continue to hand over, and say:

Thank you, sir. May I have another?

shortie · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Market overshoot tops. Are you sure that they overshoot bottoms?

A top always contain fluff. A bear market's role is to establish a rock to build on. Are you saying that a previous bear market can leave some undone work?

why do you think this bottom is the equivalent to thebottom in 2002? i hope it is not based on the plain numerical value of S&P.

gnome · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from gkishot:

Isn't the fact that the market is down 50% from it's high would also mean that the corporate earnings are expected by the market to be cut in half? Do you expect the deterioration of the earnings to get even worse?

Earnings HAVE been cut in half... down from about $94 to $46... prices have also been cut in half... so the valuation remains the same... about 17x. Not a bargain yet.

sumosam · Nov 22, 2008

i will wait and see if the bottom is retested...it usually is. got caught once, bought the bottom, then it went up, only to come down lower....sold, and yes that was the bottom

remember, the market fools the greatest amount of people

gold's spike may have been a response to the fear factor....usually when banks are in peril...as C was on Friday, and the big 3 have not yet been bailed out

also, bottoms don't normally occur on Fridays; Mondays are historically the worst day for the markets

PohPoh · Nov 22, 2008

Look, there's no question that the charts are ugly and that we could fall much further...but in my experience, when you have a technical overextension like this, it's quite easy to make a reversal...it won't be a reversal based on anything but short covering...but since we had the mother of all sell-offs, you gotta think we could also get the mother of all short coverings...
1077 or so is where I think we can go by next Summer.....

volente_00 · Nov 22, 2008

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Market overshoot tops. Are you sure that they overshoot bottoms?

A top always contain fluff. A bear market's role is to establish a rock to build on. Are you saying that a previous bear market can leave some undone work?

Fear is stronger than greed.