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It's OVER
- Thread starter PohPoh
- Start date
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I can't grasp the rational of the argument that the equity route is over as the economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate around the globe: U.S. manufacturing is at an 18 year low and declining, the unemployment rate is at a 16 year high and rising, and those receiving unemployment benefits are at a 28 year high (and likely to rise).
I could understand a 'bottom call' if the economy wasn't rapidly deteriorating, not just here, but abroad - at least stabilization would remove the risk of earnings' deceleration and disintegration - but the fundamentals, which control the destiny of future earning, are getting worse; they're not getting better or even stabilizing.
i know that Buy....I dont think anyone can see the fundy's getting worse, hence the break of the 2003 low, and the 11 year low...
But that can generally provide some support...lets see how the market handles some more bad news...
Again, my view is mainly technical - while I see mid 300's for the S&P over the next 3-4 years (that's another 50% decline) I think it's very reasonable that we bounce here, maybe even as high as 1050-1100 over the next 6 months...
What the catalyst will be, I dunno...
BTW, I'm not even long, it's just a hunch...
Classy response asshole.
Straight to ignore
mid 300 you must be smoking crack. IF it hot that low i'm sure no one would be worrying about their money at that point that would be a great depression twice as bad as the great depression
Quote from gkishot:
Isn't the fact that the market is down 50% from it's high would also mean that the corporate earnings are expected by the market to be cut in half? Do you expect the deterioration of the earnings to get even worse?
That is not how markets work in the short run. They overshoot going one way or the other. Only on average over considerable time do they work as you have suggested.
Normally after such a market as we have been experiencing you might expect a lot of year-end selling for tax purposes and window dressing. I don't see any reason why we wouldn't see that by say the 3d week in December. We have just rallied off of strong support. Nothing too unusual about that.
Instead of these 1-2 sentence combos that aren't supported by a shred of logic or data, how about you either
1) Add some evidence for your claims
2) Or, if your work is some grand esoteric mystery (maybe Gann's secret Square of 10?), make some live, specific calls. You know: entry, target, stop.
These drive-by responses are getting really old.
1) Add some evidence for your claims
2) Or, if your work is some grand esoteric mystery (maybe Gann's secret Square of 10?), make some live, specific calls. You know: entry, target, stop.
These drive-by responses are getting really old.
Quote from bali_survivor:
No way, it darn well ain't over yet.
Since you are such a trading guru I let it to yourself to figure out why.
Maria
That's a worse-case scenario, but let's play with it.
The current earnings yield for the S&P 500 is a whopping 10.7% versus the 10-year Note yield of 3.20%. That's huge. However, it's likely earnings estimates will come down further.
If we cut earnings estimates in half, it's still 5.4% vs. 3.2%. From a valuation perspective, it's still better than anything we've seen in a long, long time.
Of course, fundamentals aren't useful in calling bottoms, but stocks only get more attractive vs. the 10-year the further they drop.
The current earnings yield for the S&P 500 is a whopping 10.7% versus the 10-year Note yield of 3.20%. That's huge. However, it's likely earnings estimates will come down further.
If we cut earnings estimates in half, it's still 5.4% vs. 3.2%. From a valuation perspective, it's still better than anything we've seen in a long, long time.
Of course, fundamentals aren't useful in calling bottoms, but stocks only get more attractive vs. the 10-year the further they drop.
Quote from gkishot:
Isn't the fact that the market is down 50% from it's high would also mean that the corporate earnings are expected by the market to be cut in half? Do you expect the deterioration of the earnings to get even worse?