There isn't any serious indication anywhere that this virus is somehow difficult to develop a vaccine for or vaccine resistant. Most people managing any significant amount of money are operating under the assumption that a vaccine will be developed and that this won't even be a thing this time next year. The damage to an already frothy economy will already have been done by then and the positive feedback loop on the upside we've been living in for so long will already have turned in positive feedback loop on the downside. It takes much more than a vaccine to flip that switch. As I've said over and over, if you're focusing on anything medical at this point you're looking at the wrong thing.
It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.
- Thread starter orbit23
- Start date
Yes, vaccine will take at least a year even if one is available today.
Remdesivir is not a vaccine, it is an experimental antiviral drug. There were early indications based on compassionate use that it is helpful and by April the clinical trials will be completed and the drug be given to the general public soon after.
I'm confused.
Flu numbers updated as of today.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, there have been:
32,000,000 – 45,000,000
flu illnesses
14,000,000 – 21,000,000
flu medical visits
310,000 – 560,000
flu hospitalizations
18,000 – 46,000
flu deaths
There is nothing to be confused about. Flu deaths are priced into the markets and economic numbers. And expected at hospitals. Health services and schools and every where else have procedures in place to handle Flu. When someone dies of Flu they know what to do with the body.
This new one is Novel. Its not priced in and there are no procedures in place on how to handle it.
Except maybe put on hazmat suits and burn the dead bodies asap.
The amount of worldwide disruption is still uncertain and the markets hate uncertainty.
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I think the slowdown in Wuhan province is a great sign!
But can they shut down cities like that in countries that don't have authoritarian governments?
If Trump does the same to cities and towns in the US he is not going to get re-elected. Same for other democratic governments around the world.
Reelection is something the Chinese rulers dont have to worry about.
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Point being none of that matters at all. It's likely the damage has already been done to the point that a magic cure that we could instantly roll out to everyone in the world tomorrow wouldn't impact the market downturn caused by reversing the direction that positive feedback loop is going. Like I said, if you're looking at anything medical at this point you're looking at the wrong thing. The only thing relevant there is potential increased downside, there's no upside there beyond a positive announcement being the impetuous for a couple of random dead cat bounces we'll inevitably see.
Not sure it will ever get to that point here. It's already dying down in its epicenter.