It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[farmerjohn1324]

Historically average length of a growing economy in the USA is 38.7 months or 3.2 years. "

This one lasted almost 10.5 years. That was pretty good run when think the average is 3.2 years.
But interest rates were almost zero for most of that time, that explains why it lasted so much longer than average. But low interests rates are now priced in to the economy. They cant keep the party going on forever.

There are better precursors than that...

High corporate debt, low business investment...

But it's been like this for over a year. That is why there was speculation of recession mid-2019. But still unemployment remains low, etc.

See what happens if unemployment goes up to even 4%. I believe that's when "smart money" would start to pull out. There's no telling how "smart" this virus panic money is.

 

[volpri]

I believe Warren Buffett's quote goes something like...

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Do you think his $122 billion cash pile will be shrinking soon?

Yes, if it is not in cash.

 

[KCalhoun]

What's surprising is people not using stops on the way down... I start scaling out at 2day lows, in at 2day highs

 

[Cuddles]

What's surprising is people not using stops on the way down... I start scaling out at 2day lows, in at 2day highs

It's too volatile. I was using stops on this 3 yr rally and kept getting kicked out & missing the rebound. Thursday & Friday I set stops on my shorts...but I set them wide expecting the above. Friday's was too wide a stop so ended up giving up all my gains for that day.

So you're stuck with either:
Setting tight stops and missing the action
Setting wide stops and missing the gains
Setting no stops and trusting your gut.
Being stuck to a screen all day

 

[farmerjohn1324]

It's too volatile. I was using stops on this 3 yr rally and kept getting kicked out & missing the rebound. Thursday & Friday I set stops on my shorts...but I set them wide expecting the above. Friday's was too wide a stop so ended up giving up all my gains for that day.

So you're stuck with either:
Setting tight stops and missing the action
Setting wide stops and missing the gains
Setting no stops and trusting your gut.
Being stuck to a screen all day

They are currently discharging enough patients from temporary hospitals in Wuhan province that they are closing some of the temporary hospitals.

I predict things will be back to normal in 1 month.

 

[ironchef]

You are 2 weeks late. But anyhow, if:

1. Bernie gets a heart attack/dies.
2. They develop a vaccine for the corona virus.

The market right away rallies 10%...

Or all the clinical trials of remdesivir turn out very positive.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Or all the clinical trials of remdesivir turn out very positive.

Or the virus runs it's course in a few months like it's already showing signs of doing.

 

[Cuddles]

They are currently discharging enough patients from temporary hospitals in Wuhan province that they are closing some of the temporary hospitals.

I predict things will be back to normal in 1 month.

Or the virus runs it's course in a few months like it's already showing signs of doing.

Chinese stocks have been stabilizing. I'm planning to jump back in on BABA & BIDU & a few semiconductors but know full well they'll get wrecked when they report earnings (May for BABA).

 

[KCalhoun]

It's too volatile. I was using stops on this 3 yr rally and kept getting kicked out & missing the rebound. Thursday & Friday I set stops on my shorts...but I set them wide expecting the above. Friday's was too wide a stop so ended up giving up all my gains for that day.

So you're stuck with either:
Setting tight stops and missing the action
Setting wide stops and missing the gains
Setting no stops and trusting your gut.
Being stuck to a screen all day

Good point, I'm using wide stops small size w/scaling, in front of monitors all day

 

[ironchef]

amazing how basic technical is forgotten

since when does a 10% drop become a crash.

the monthly swing low has not been broken.

this is the classic break out test.

if the break out does not fail, then it will move up with renewed strength faster than before.

some traders here are questioning my target and my time frame. there is a technical rational to my diagnosed madness

It is a crash if you took out a first mortgage, a second mortgage and maxed out your credit card to buy QQQ and also did it on margin.