It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

Sig said:
Given that:
a. Unemployment numbers are collected on the week that includes the 12th of the month which is before there would have been any impact to the U.S. economy from this, and
b. We don't lay people off immediately in response to supply chain disruptions even if we knew for certain that they might have significant impacts as they work their way through the economy, and we don't know much for certain at this point.

The unemployment data released in March for Feb will be pretty much completely irrelevant to determining anything about the current situation.

But of course with your vast macro experience you would have known that, no?
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I never said the virus situation would affect the numbers at all.

My point was to see the amount that real data would affect things vs. what still might be unfounded panic by a virus that has killed exactly 1 person in the USA.

Will the markets ignore positive jobs data and focus on mass panic instead?

But keep going quoting me on things I don't say. Why am I even responding to someone with as awful a personality as yours anyway?
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I never said the virus situation would affect the numbers at all.

My point was to see the amount that real data would affect things vs. what still might be unfounded panic by a virus that has killed exactly 1 person in the USA.

Will the markets ignore positive jobs data and focus on mass panic instead?

But keep going quoting me on things I don't say. Why am I even responding to someone with as awful a personality as yours anyway?
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Again, it's basic macro that when you believe you have great uncertainty ahead, a backward looking, lagging indicator like the jobs report is of almost no value in predicting what will happen going forward. So it won't have any impact, nor should anyone with any background in this expect it to. Market participants aren't focusing on "mass panic" per se, they're focusing on the impact to the supply chain that has happened and will continue to happen. Of course only if you believe in crazy ideas like the fact that massive supply chain disruptions around the world will impact the world economy, which you've argued hard here isn't the case.

And cut the ad hominem crap...that is a sign of nothing more than a weak argument and certainly doesn't reflect well on you.
 
Sig said:
Again, it's basic macro that when you believe you have great uncertainty ahead, a backward looking, lagging indicator like the jobs report is of almost no value in predicting what will happen going forward. So it won't have any impact, nor should anyone with any background in this expect it to. Market participants aren't focusing on "mass panic" per se, they're focusing on the impact to the supply chain that has happened and will continue to happen. Of course only if you believe in crazy ideas like the fact that massive supply chain disruptions around the world will impact the world economy, which you've argued hard here isn't the case.

And cut the ad hominem crap...that is a sign of nothing more than a weak argument and certainly doesn't reflect well on you.
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And I'm saying that perhaps this massive supply chain disruption may not even happen at
all. Perhaps the psychological factor is larger than any real factor that will ever materialize.

No it's not a sign of weak argument. It's a sign of not wanting to waste my precious time on Earth talking to you.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
...
My point was to see the amount that real data would affect things vs. what still might be unfounded panic by a virus that has killed exactly 1 person in the USA.

Will the markets ignore positive jobs data and focus on mass panic instead?

...
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Yes, the markets are going to focus on the mass panic. With that first US death over this weekend? Gap down tomorrow night. Sux to be a bull like me.
 
Overnight said:
Yes, the markets are going to focus on the mass panic. With that first US death over this weekend? Gap down tomorrow night. Sux to be a bull like me.
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I believe Warren Buffett's quote goes something like...

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Do you think his $122 billion cash pile will be shrinking soon?
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I believe Warren Buffett's quote goes something like...

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Do you think his $122 billion cash pile will be shrinking soon?
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Probably, because he can afford to get into the markets during a correction, and survive a bear drop and hold it for a couple of years.
 
Overnight said:
Yes, the markets are going to focus on the mass panic. With that first US death over this weekend? Gap down tomorrow night. Sux to be a bull like me.
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RIP

good thing i'm healthy & not medically high risk & will be fine. Panic over
 
S2007S said:
I think this is a completely different market now
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As I keep repeating, it's never different this time. Whether it's on its way up or way down, it's always characterized by one and the same thing: EXTREME. Extreme greed and extreme fear. In another word, human stupidity.
 
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