It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[farmerjohn1324]

It was caused by the .com bust, just like we had in '29 and '57 and ...oh, actually that had never happened before either. Hell we had a recession in 1893 because a railroad failed! Since you seem to like to do this let me make this broad for you.... recessions are often caused by a disruption to the economy, often at the end of an expansionary period. The supply chain impact on the world economy is a disruption, we're at the end of a nearly unprecedented expansionary period. There, good enough for your symantic view of the world?

And again, literally no one with any background in economics thinks the world economy will suffer because of population loss a la the bubonic plague as you originally indicated. If you think everyone is a moron because that's what they believe...but you're the one mistaken about what they believe...then....

We had a .com bust in 1929 before the Internet existed? Okay, I'll assume you meant a stock market crash.

I would argue that the stock market crash is a symptom, not a cause. The cause would be the underlying fundamentals of the economy. Over extension of credit being the major factor.

There was no recession in 2001. But to say the .com bubble caused an economic correction is. not accurate. The stock market decline is a symptom, not a cause.

The stock market does not measure the economy, and I sure hope that doesn't need to be explained to you.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Well, geez, it sure seems that some folks feel this way, ala the past 7 calendar days of the market!

Overreacting. I doubt any "smart money" feels this way.

 

[Pekelo]

I feel like most of you don't understand what i'm trying to imply. A 10 year bull market is supposed to end somewhere. This was it.

I tend to agree, but bear markets have the most vicious rallies.

Also, posted 1 day before the ATH:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-sign-of-the-times.340512/

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I tend to agree, but bear markets have the most vicious rallies.

Also, posted 1 day before the ATH:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-sign-of-the-times.340512/

And they don't end because of viruses.

They the because of over extension of credit.

 

[Pekelo]

And they don't end because of viruses.

I agree, the virus or a socialist candidate leading the presidential race are just triggers. Once the market has been ripe for a change of direction, the trigger itself is petty much irrelevant.

 

[Sig]

We had a .com bust in 1929 before the Internet existed? Okay, I'll assume you meant a stock market crash.

I would argue that the stock market crash is a symptom, not a cause. The cause would be the underlying fundamentals of the economy. Over extension of credit being the major factor.

There was no recession in 2001. But to say the .com bubble caused an economic correction is. not accurate. The stock market decline is a symptom, not a cause.

The stock market does not measure the economy, and I sure hope that doesn't need to be explained to you.

That went way over your head. Sorry to get you involved in the conversation. Go back to your belief that everyone is a moron because they think coronavirus will kill enough of the world's population to cause economic impact. Thanks for the reminder that Dunning Kruger is alive and well.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

That went way over your head. Sorry to get you involved in the conversation. Go back to your belief that everyone is a moron because they think coronavirus will kill enough of the world's population to cause economic impact. Thanks for the reminder that Dunning Kruger is alive and well.

Read the post just above yours (#55) to hear people who agree with me.

You're quoting me on things I never said.

Macroeconomics is WAY over your head.

 

[gaussian]

83,000 cases. 2800 deaths. 33000 recovered. 46.5k currently infected.

Out of a global population over 7 billion.

That is not enough, in my opinion, to alter the economy. Other than in people's sentiment.

It's not exactly the Bubonic Plague where 33% of the population died.

Wrong way to look at it. First, the better measure is [deaths]/[recovered + deaths], not total cases. This formula is known as the resolved CFR. In this light your view is woefully naive. Due to the long time it takes to die from it (3+ weeks) every estimate not based on resolved CFR is likely significantly underestimating the case fatality ratio.

Second, you are extrapolating wrong. The number given the data (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) and the formula above is close to 7.3%. This is just with what we know. Who knows what China is hiding.

The true effect is fear. Borders will close. Supply chains will shut down. If it goes pandemic and the CDC declares it the market will probably freefall under the expectation that US companies will be forced to evaluate stateside supply chain changes which could take years to see profitability. There will be a global economic ice age and there's no amount of stimulus that will save us.

There is no way to overestimate the damage this could cause if it is declared a pandemic. Consider that recently it was said that an area needs 28 days of zero new infections to consider itself outbreak free. The infection phase is so long this thing will likely be a bane on the economy and the world until a vaccination is created. If every new cases is infectious without symptoms for 14 days how many people can the average person infect? How many people does the average person come in contact within 1.5 feet of in a day?

There was no recession in 2001. But to say the .com bubble caused an economic correction is. not accurate. The stock market decline is a symptom, not a cause.

https://www.thebalance.com/2001-recession-causes-lengths-stats-4147962

The recession in 2001 lasted 8 months - I am not sure if you really know what you're talking about anymore.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Wrong way to look at it. First, the better measure is [deaths]/[recovered + deaths], not total cases. This formula is known as the resolved CFR. In this light your view is woefully naive. Due to the long time it takes to die from it (3+ weeks) every estimate not based on resolved CFR is likely significantly underestimating the case fatality ratio.

Second, you are extrapolating wrong. The number given the data (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) and the formula above is close to 7.3%. This is just with what we know. Who knows what China is hiding.

The true effect is fear. Borders will close. Supply chains will shut down. If it goes pandemic and the CDC declares it the market will probably freefall under the expectation that US companies will be forced to evaluate stateside supply chain changes which could take years to see profitability. There will be a global economic ice age and there's no amount of stimulus that will save us.

There is no way to overestimate the damage this could cause if it is declared a pandemic. Consider that recently it was said that an area needs 28 days of zero new infections to consider itself outbreak free. The infection phase is so long this thing will likely be a bane on the economy and the world until a vaccination is created. If every new cases is infectious without symptoms for 14 days how many people can the average person infect? How many people does the average person come in contact within 1.5 feet of in a day?



https://www.thebalance.com/2001-recession-causes-lengths-stats-4147962

The recession in 2001 lasted 8 months - I am not sure if you really know what you're talking about anymore.

You speak as if you know this stuff (borders closing, etc.) will definitely happen.

There were not 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline as reported on the quarterly reports.

Btw, what does .com bubble have to do with supply chain?

You are sounding exactly like the panicking masses. I've been to 12 different airports in the past 3.5 weeks. They definitely aren't empty.

Even if the economy crashes right now and it's a terrible recession, I am still saying that this virus isn't the cause. That would be like saying that World War 1 was caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand rather than looking at the much deeper issues. A war was ready to break out - and the assassination was just the convenient excuse.

 

[Cuddles]

You speak as if you know this stuff (borders closing, etc.) will definitely happen.

There were not 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline as reported on the quarterly reports.

Btw, what does .com bubble have to do with supply chain?

You are sounding exactly like the panicking masses. I've been to 12 different airports in the past 3.5 weeks. They definitely aren't empty.

Even if the economy crashes right now and it's a terrible recession, I am still saying that this virus isn't the cause. That would be like saying that World War 1 was caused by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand rather than looking at the much deeper issues. A war was ready to break out - and the assassination was just the convenient excuse.

Both of you are correct to some degree. China's economic woes started over the tariff war, which hurt the American supply chain. The virus is just the latest blow, and may be the catalyst to burst a bubble that's been fueled by corporate welfare/buy back, cheap money & an irrational sense of consumer confidence. Y'all are just being obtuse on the merits of each other's argument.