It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[Sekiyo]

Actually, Padu can be forgiven for his naivete. The guy who constantly advised people to sell their home to buy QQQ should be dragged out and flogged.

Yes.
The beauty of Skin in the game.
Weak players are eventually Sidelined.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You're missing the entire point. Not a single person has to die for significant supply chain disruptions that can have a significant ripple effect even on industries several steps removed from the actual disruptions. No one is seriously saying enough people will die to actually change the world economy. But large scale work stoppages like have already happened in China, quarantines, travel restrictions, and the like have a real and potentially significant impact on the world economy, regardless of what triggered them. If you're talking about the virus and death rates you're talking about the wrong thing and are a couple of levels behind at best.

Name one instance where a supply chain disruption led to a recession.

 

[Sig]

Name one instance where a supply chain disruption led to a recession.

9/11

However again you're at least two steps behind and looking backward if you insist that the only things that can cause a recession are things that caused a recession in the past. Name one instance where a subprime mortgage crisis caused a recession before 2008?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

9/11

However again you're at least two steps behind and looking backward if you insist that the only things that can cause a recession are things that caused a recession in the past. Name one instance where a subprime mortgage crisis caused a recession before 2008?

9/11 didn't cause a recession.

Irresponsible lending practices caused the Great Depression.

Maybe you are the one who is steps behind.

The closest thing to a supply disruption causing recession that I know of would be 1979 Iranian revolution causing oil supply problems.

 

[ElCubano]

Yes, but it is all about context now. It is the sensationalism of a non-issue.

It is like when a hurricane is going to hit Anytown, USA. What is the reaction of everyone? To horde and empty out every damned grocery store in sight, with weeks worth of food, water and whatever else. It never gets that bad on the mainland, where you will be weeks without food or water. Power? Maybe. Water? Never. Food? Never.

It will alter the economy if all the snowflakes out there call-in sick because they have the sniffles (which will now be most likely due to allergies with an early spring), which WILL affect productivity in the country.

Living in hurricane alley USA, I can attest to the panic. The perception, the media the ensuing panic is usually 10 fold.

 

[Sig]

9/11 didn't cause a recession.

Irresponsible lending practices caused the Great Depression.

Maybe you are the one who is steps behind.

The closest thing to a supply disruption causing recession that I know of would be 1979 Iranian revolution causing oil supply problems.

So you're sticking with this idea that only something that caused a recession in the past can cause one going forward? And you think that those who are worried about the coronavirus impacting the world economy are worried because we literally think it will depopulate the world to the extent it would cause a recession?
And you're the one thinking ahead? All righty then, good luck with that.

BTW, what did cause the early 2000 recession?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

So you're sticking with this idea that only something that caused a recession in the past can cause one going forward? And you think that those who are worried about the coronavirus impacting the world economy are worried because we literally think it will depopulate the world to the extent it would cause a recession?
And you're the one thinking ahead? All righty then, good luck with that.

BTW, what did cause the early 2000 recession?

Technically, there was no recession in 2001. There were not two consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

What caused slowing (sometimes negative) growth? I would guess over-extension of credit due to the economic success of the 1990s. It was more of a correction than a recession.

Definitely wasn't 9/11 cause GDP growth was back in positive territory by Q4 2001.

As far as relying on things in the past, that's because it's called an economic cycle.

There are things about the economy that are linear: advances in technology, population growth, and more. But the business cycle is cyclical. There are long-term and short-term debt cycles.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

So you're sticking with this idea that only something that caused a recession in the past can cause one going forward? And you think that those who are worried about the coronavirus impacting the world economy are worried because we literally think it will depopulate the world to the extent it would cause a recession?
And you're the one thinking ahead? All righty then, good luck with that.

BTW, what did cause the early 2000 recession?

Even if the economy crashes right now... It wasn't because of coronavirus. It was because of over extension of credit due to economic success since the Great Recession ended.

 

[Sig]

Technically, there was no recession in 2001. There were not two consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

What caused slowing (sometimes negative) growth? I would guess over-extension of credit due to the economic success of the 1990s. It was more of a correction than a recession.

Definitely wasn't 9/11 cause GDP growth was back in positive territory by Q4 2001.

As far as relying on things in the past, that's because it's called an economic cycle.

There are things about the economy that are linear: advances in technology, population growth, and more. But the business cycle is cyclical. There are long-term and short-term debt cycles.

It was caused by the .com bust, just like we had in '29 and '57 and ...oh, actually that had never happened before either. Hell we had a recession in 1893 because a railroad failed! Since you seem to like to do this let me make this broad for you.... recessions are often caused by a disruption to the economy, often at the end of an expansionary period. The supply chain impact on the world economy is a disruption, we're at the end of a nearly unprecedented expansionary period. There, good enough for your symantic view of the world?

And again, literally no one with any background in economics thinks the world economy will suffer because of population loss a la the bubonic plague as you originally indicated. If you think everyone is a moron because that's what they believe...but you're the one mistaken about what they believe...then....

 

[Overnight]

...
And again, literally no one with any background in economics thinks the world economy will suffer because of population loss a la the bubonic plague as you originally indicated...

Well, geez, it sure seems that some folks feel this way, ala the past 7 calendar days of the market!