It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[Overnight]

I'm wondering why gold didn't go up in a corresponding amount.

And the 3x Gold Miners ETF (NUGT) I used to own lost almost 17% today. I would have thought the opposite would happen.

Can't mine for gold if everyone is out sick, and people aren't out buying gold if everyone is home sick and not shopping?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

The thing is that the virus effect won't last more than a quarter, two max. At some point the selling will dry up and there won't be anything to trigger new waves of it, rather you'll see companies raising guidance or beating lowered estimates on H1 earnings, a V-shaped recovery in activity, and huge new wave of coordinated worldwide stimulus.

So the downside should be limited from here, but it's also not clear how we can get another big bull trend going with the prospect of a Sanders victory in November. Once you get to May or June the election will start to become a major factor.

The only thing to trigger new waves of selling would be actual bad economic data.

As scary as a virus is, it isn't economic data. It won't destroy humanity. It has a 2% fatality rate.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Can't mine for gold if everyone is out sick, and people aren't out buying gold if everyone is home sick and not shopping?

I thought the value of gold wasn't in it's value to retail jewellery owners.

I thought most of it is stored away in vaults. The owners never see it and they trade pieces of paper, or digital contracts stating they own it.

It's value is in a store of value in times of economic uncertainty and/or high inflation.

 

[Pekelo]

I know there is no absolutes in trading and i'd like to be proven wrong, i am just not seeing it. All the indices worldwide looking like a top on high timeframes.

You are 2 weeks late. But anyhow, if:

1. Bernie gets a heart attack/dies.
2. They develop a vaccine for the corona virus.

The market right away rallies 10%...

 

[Overnight]

I thought the value of gold wasn't in it's value to retail jewellery owners.

I thought most of it is stored away in vaults. The owners never see it and they trade pieces of paper, or digital contracts stating they own it.

It's value is in a store of value in times of economic uncertainty and/or high inflation.

I guess everyone decided bonds were the shit and GC was old hat.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You are 2 weeks late. But anyhow, if:

1. Bernie gets a heart attack/dies.
2. They develop a vaccine for the corona virus.

The market right away rallies 10%...

They don't need a vaccine. It has a 2% fatality rate.

The epidemic will eventually end itself.

 

[Overnight]

The only thing to trigger new waves of selling would be actual bad economic data.

As scary as a virus is, it isn't economic data. It won't destroy humanity. It has a 2% fatality rate.

That bad economic data is going to come because of the virus. I believe that is what the market is pricing in now.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I guess everyone decided bonds were the shit and GC was old hat.

I guess so too.

Cause those 2 have always moved together in the 6 months since I bought them.

Now if you see the unemployment rate go up, then I think gold will go up also.

 

[Overnight]

That bad economic data is going to come because of the virus. I believe that is what the market is pricing in now.

Think of "Trade war lite."

 

[Pekelo]

As scary as a virus is, it isn't economic data. It won't destroy humanity. It has a 2% fatality rate.

A virus is like a terrorist. Terrorist kill relative few people, but that is not their point. The point is FEAR, the same with a virus.

The travel industry will get a huge hit if 30% less people using them. If 2% of the Chinese die, who is going to export anything from them? Anybody relying on Chinese work forces (pretty much everybody) will take a hit.

Even in America, 2% would be 6 MM people, but again it is people's willingness to spend (aka backbone of the US economy).