It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[Pekelo]

2% of China is going to die?

How many Americans died on 911 in %? Yet it changed the whole travel industry....

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You said the death rate was 2%. But that is not the point. Fear is...

You probably don't remember the early days of AIDS. When we didn't know much about it. Barbers stopped shaving clients, etc. It did effect the economy.

Sure, the markets like to over react. But the virus was just the trigger, we have been ready for a correction for quite sometimes...

My modesty predicted the top and I didn't base it on the virus...

I meant that 2% of people that are infected die. 98% survive. I saw this on a sign at the airport.

Either way, if markets do go down, it would be because of an underlying economic reason such as too much lending.

 

[Cuddles]

If this dump is not a trend-changer of the historical 10year bull market, then what is?

Buying the dip worked for the last 10 years, and seems like that period is coming to an end. I believe we are in a bear market.

Take a look at some high time frame charts. Everything looks toppish.

That virus is gonna fuck us up too. Good luck, everybody.

Start praying for a nice bounce where you can get out.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

How many Americans died on 911 in %? Yet it changed the whole travel industry....

What affected markets more?

9/11 or Great Recession?

 

[orbit23]

You are 2 weeks late. But anyhow, if:

1. Bernie gets a heart attack/dies.
2. They develop a vaccine for the corona virus.

The market right away rallies 10%...

I am definitely not 2 weeks late. One shouldn't ve been shorting prior to this. This is a 10 year uptrend. And this dump, is a reversal in my opinion. Calling tops doesn't work, just BTFD until it stops working and that time has come.

I feel like most of you don't understand what i'm trying to imply. A 10 year bull market is supposed to end somewhere. This was it. Like, this is a big deal. You were supposed to blindly be buying the dip for a decade and you were making money. I am saying the tables have likely turned. The odds are in your favor if you are shorting bounces now.

 

[Cuddles]

I am definitely not 2 weeks late. One shouldn't ve been shorting prior to this. This is a 10 year uptrend. And this dump, is a reversal in my opinion. Calling tops doesn't work, just BTFD until it stops working and that time has come.

I feel like most of you don't understand what i'm trying to imply. A 10 year bull market is supposed to end somewhere. This was it. Like, this is a big deal. You were supposed to blindly be buying the dip for a decade and you were making money. I am saying the tables have likely turned. The odds are in your favor if you are shorting bounces now.

we dropped 18% in 2018, that bounced like a mofo. Unlikely this time, but I'm mostly going by gut feeling & some observations.

 

[orbit23]

View attachment 220633

That's apple and pears brother. There i'm trying to play the short term bottom(which wasn't well timed..yet), and in this thread im implying a high time frame, trend reversal.

 

[LanceJ]

Using the Dow as an example.
Technically I see a Reversal pattern. Broadening Top.
The latest new high reversal was number 5.
The sell off below reversal 4 is already 2x the length of #4 to #5.

 

[orbit23]

we dropped 18% in 2018, that bounced like a mofo. Unlikely this time, but I'm mostly going by gut feeling & some observations.

We did, but this time is different in my opinion. I'd be glad to be proven wrong. But just look at Hong kong or chinese indices weekly chart... This looks toppish on a multi year timeframe. Also boeing. This thing hasn't even started to drop for real just yet.

Again, higher-timeframe view. If we get a 5% bounce tomorrow, that's not what i mean.

 

[Sig]

83,000 cases. 2800 deaths. 33000 recovered. 46.5k currently infected.

Out of a global population over 7 billion.

That is not enough, in my opinion, to alter the economy. Other than in people's sentiment.

It's not exactly the Bubonic Plague where 33% of the population died.

You're missing the entire point. Not a single person has to die for significant supply chain disruptions that can have a significant ripple effect even on industries several steps removed from the actual disruptions. No one is seriously saying enough people will die to actually change the world economy. But large scale work stoppages like have already happened in China, quarantines, travel restrictions, and the like have a real and potentially significant impact on the world economy, regardless of what triggered them. If you're talking about the virus and death rates you're talking about the wrong thing and are a couple of levels behind at best.