Its going to get rough Part II

[michaelscott]

That is an interesting point.

The one difference I can find between the late 2004/early 2005 time period and now is that the IWM did not retrace up to the rim. It just broke down.

I paged through the events we have ahead and there is a lot on the plate. These next 7 days are very crucial.

Quote from dtrader98:

Michael,

That was an interesting observation. I wanted to confirm it and also go back and see if I could find a contradicting case.
Lo and behold, I didn't have to go far at all. If you go back to the wedge period, before the two you identified, it has almost identical periodic and structural characteristics as well. The enclosed graph shows the outcome of superimposing the older patterns. The most interesting observation is both give exact opposite outputs! Therefore, we can't really conclude greater than 50/50 chance of either outcome based on this pattern analysis. Interestingly, the 1st period with the breakdown pattern looks more like the current one IMO.

BTW: I meant to say falling three methods pattern at end of wedges I and III.

Just another reason why I'm liking mandelbrot's thinking more and more
with each pattern analysis.
----------------------------------------------
Mandelbrot: Patterns are the fool's gold of financial markets. They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless.

 

[Duncan Doughnut]

Geez, you are certainly paranoid Mr Scott. I had no intentions of engaging you in anything other than honest questioning.

Quote from michaelscott:

I had a LONG position of 5500 shares about two weeks ago right during the earnings call.

I know your one of the guys from the peanut gallery who logged on here with a different id to harass me. Lets see your P/L. I showed you my ticket, where is yours?

The only heartbreaking thing is looking at your account balance. However, I dont even think you have an account balance.

Why dont you come on here with your real id and address me? Coward.

 

[Cocaine]

LOL, you're a douche man

Quote from michaelscott:

I had a LONG position of 5500 shares about two weeks ago right during the earnings call.

I know your one of the guys from the peanut gallery who logged on here with a different id to harass me. Lets see your P/L. I showed you my ticket, where is yours?

The only heartbreaking thing is looking at your account balance. However, I dont even think you have an account balance.

Why dont you come on here with your real id and address me? Coward.

 

[michaelscott]

We are all at different levels in the game on elitetrader....

Quote from aaronk321:

damn dude, you had 200k on DJ. I guess you don't fuck around with your trades. Do you typically go that high or did you felt safe with DJ since it's more a less a value stock. I noticed you made 19k on SOLF - what made you so sure to play a large amount on the solar stuff.

 

[DeepFried]

S&P futures +5.20
Nasdaq futures +6.00
Dow futures +37

Don't ask me.

 

[asap]

it is going to get rough no doubt.

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from michaelscott:

First, Im not trying to make predictions. Just observing whats obvious to me on the chart. I dont claim to be right. Make your own judgement.

By looking at the attached chart, I have noticed some distinct similiarities in the IWM between 2005 and the current time.

In 2005, there was a deep correction lasting 8 months, Jan-August.

The drop was 15% and the pop back up was 21%.

Then followed a smaller cup or handle like formation. This retraced about 2/3 the height of the previous cup.

The duration was about 4 months, Aug-Dec.

The drop was 11% and pop was 13%.

Then there was a small pullback lasting 4 weeks of 3-4% before an amazing pop to the upside above resistance. The pullback retraced about 1/3 of the height of previous structure.

The advance after the breakout was roughly 14% and lasted 5 months until May 2006.

In 2006, there was a deep correction lasting 6 months.

The drop was 17% and the pop was 25%.

Then there was another structure on the chart looking like a smaller cup or handle.

The duration was about 2 months.

The drop was 9.8% and the pop was 11%

The retracement was about 1/2 of the previous cups height.

Then we have another pullback that we are currently in right now. The pullback so far is about 3.79% at the intraday low of the IWM. It came within .78% of the 20 day moving average before bouncing. Intraday there was a rough double bottom. So far the pullback has retraced a little over 1/3 of the previous cup.

This bottom seems to be solid to me, however, it didnt fully retrace to the middle Bollinger Band or to half the previous cups height which I suspect it might do.

In any event, the similiarities between 2005 and the present time are uncanny. The structures, the formations and even the magic RSI indicator seems to be at roughly the same levels.

Conclusion-

Assuming the IWM can make it over the resistance, we should have 15-16% up room probably lasting 6 months with our next correction in the 3-4th quarters most probably being 9-10% in quality.

I expect for the rest of this week for there to be one of two things.

1) Chop-chop to down with a full retracement to the 20 day average at 79.51 and half the previous cups height.

OR

2) A breakout to the upside over resistance producing a 6 month 15-16% rally and then a 10% correction.

So you changed your predictions all ready? your like a little puppy chasing his tail.

Looks like this time you have everything covered, so if your wrong your right! nice.

 

[michaelscott]

and your still an a**hole. I feel sorry for those who have to live and work around you. Oh, I forgot, your just some lonely dude sitting in a small room in front of 4 20 inch monitors day and night. Good luck to you. A**hole.

Quote from myminitrading:

So you changed your predictions all ready? your like a little puppy chasing his tail.

Looks like this time you have everything covered, so if your wrong your right! nice.

 

[Harold Balls]

Michael Scott,

Why are you being such a jerk? Guys like you on this site are a dime a dozen over the years. My guess is that you are some 30 something guy who worked for some major firm (possibly Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns, AIG etc) and who recently decided he must seek a new path in life and fast. So you come here and start spewing out all this "market knowledge" from your past experience thinking that this will help you trade successfully. Maybe I'm wrong about you but thats my guess after reading your posts and seeing your attitude on this thread.

You need to lighten up son, if you come on here with all these forecasts based on your analysis, you are setting yourself up for criticsim. You need a thicker skin.

-Harry

Quote from michaelscott:

and your still an a**hole. I feel sorry for those who have to live and work around you. Oh, I forgot, your just some lonely dude sitting in a small room in front of 4 20 inch monitors day and night. Good luck to you. A**hole.

 

[michaelscott]

If someone treats me with disrespect, then there is no doubt that they will receive the same or greater disrespect in return.