Wouldn't touch bonds when they've been in a bull market for several decades and possibly are in a bubble. The income part is too low and I wouldn't want to risk my principle. If you're going to hold the bonds through maturity (save principle) and the yield is satisfactory to you, then go for it, but it's not worth it to me. If you must have bonds, I suggest a bond ladder of different duration with a mix of corporate and treasuries.
I used to scalp ES too and had similar problems as you...over trading and too costly. I finally got pretty good at scalping ES when I learned to read the DOM, but the energy involved was exhausting...then DOM reading became less effective over time. I still use the DOM, but not with ES. I think I'm done with ES for good...better alternatives out there. Like I said before, high probability/low frequency using nat.gas...it usually has two or more good runs a day...some start at 4 or 5am. I use to trade CL (oil) a lot and that eventually became a shell of itself starting in 2012. Trading treasuries was a big deal for many years as well, but I favor NG and gold the most now.
I agree, it's all about timing. High probability gives a trader confidence and confidence keeps a trader disciplined. Traders don't follow their rules when they know a large draw down could be around the corner...essentially waiting for the bigger gain to make up for all the smaller losers...of which could be a long time (talk about testing one's confidence). The biggest problem with high prob. setups is finding one...though.
