Iterative Refinement

[ticktrade]

Quote from ehorn:

What are your thoughts charts?

Did you have an SOC at 1355? If so could you explain?
I do not trade strictly the traverse level changes so I am unclear where the actual pt1 for the up traverse is.
For me the 1500 bar was the SOC and 1505 confirmed it. That is where I got long and quit looking for short entries.
1540 told me change but I viewed it as pt2.
I can see how others have come up with an alternate scenario.

I continue to lack cerainty/consistency on sequence completions and signals of change that follow those. Through debriefing, I had to find ways to trade this method so the uncertainty of those situations were not a problem. For me, more often than not basic gaussian principles provide all the clarity needed. These do not allow one to carve the turns. Other tools have helped with that. I find I have to play WMCN more often than I think one should if trading the traverse level changes.

 

[ehorn]

Quote from ticktrade:

Did you have an SOC at 1355? If so could you explain?...

Hi ticktrade, I do not observe a SOC at 13:55. I do, however observe B2B beginning at 14:00 (post sequence completion - I think ), creating a BO of the down channel, price then retraces back to the TL (overlapping aspect). So I have labelled 14:00 as PT1. I then annotated an accelerated traverse (PT1 at 15:00)

 

[romanus]

Quote from ehorn:

Hi ticktrade, I do not observe a SOC at 13:55. I do, however observe B2B beginning at 14:00 (post sequence completion - I think ), creating a BO of the down channel, price then retraces back to the TL (overlapping aspect). So I have labelled 14:00 as PT1. I then annotated an accelerated traverse (PT1 at 15:00)

I did not think permission to seek change existed on 13:50 [close of] bar.

13:05 [close of] bar marked the transition to new dominant mode (red) breaking RTL on incr. Volume.

However, while moving from pt2 to pt3, increasing black Volume on 13:25 [close of] bar, caused change in dominance (that bar is not a spike) to black and as such after breaking out of lateral and returning to dominance on 13:50 [close of] bar, we had yet to transition to non-dominant mode before arriving at Pt3. In other words IMO, the market is still on it's way to Pt3 as of 13:50 [close of] and therefore no permission to seek change exist.

 

[ehorn]

Quote from romanus:

I did not think permission to seek change existed on 13:50 [close of] bar.

13:05 [close of] bar marked the transition to new dominant mode (red) breaking RTL on incr. Volume.

However, while moving from pt2 to pt3, increasing black Volume on 13:25 [close of] bar, caused change in dominance (that bar is not a spike) to black and as such after breaking out of lateral and returning to dominance on 13:50 [close of] bar, we had yet to transition to non-dominant mode before arriving at Pt3. In other words IMO, the market is still on it's way to Pt3 as of 13:50 [close of] and therefore no permission to seek change exist.

I can see this too. I think ticktrade is observing the same conditions. So my preflight CL is correct but my annotations are not?

 

[charts]

Quote from ehorn:

What are your thoughts charts?

It's tempting to try to guess and difficult to stay with the anticipation: pt2 to pt3... 1540 looks like a spyke ...

 

[ehorn]

Quote from charts:

It's tempting to try to guess and difficult to stay with the anticipation: pt2 to pt3... 1540 looks like a spyke ...

I agree on the spike bar. and non-dom LM so are we waiting for confirmation of the LM BO or has it been confirmed by BO of Traverse TL on IRV? That is my uncertainty here...

 

[charts]

Quote from romanus:

It does not look like a tape to me. We already have increasing volume to confirm pt3 of traverse. The only thing that's missing when bar 6 closes is return to dominance. So I asked myself a question: is it possible that the market is moving in non-dominant fashion when it creates VE?

You may actually end up better by not seeing your bar 7 as change ...

 

[ticktrade]

Quote from ehorn:

I can see this too. I think ticktrade is observing the same conditions. So my preflight CL is correct but my annotations are not?

I was just trying to offer a possible scenario. While doing my preflight I started working backward from the close and had a down traverse drawn in. Than as I continued backwards came to the other possiblity of a pt2-3 move of the up traverse(questioning where pt1 exists).
The final bar of the day came out of a lateral and according to my understanding of the latest discussions this is not considered proof of dominance. Yet.

 

[ehorn]

Quote from ticktrade:

The final bar of the day came out of a lateral and according to my understanding of the latest discussions this is not considered proof of dominance. Yet.

I can see this... just hard to envision no non-dominance (traverse level) for a 100 point move!!! . The YM shows a very nice dom/non-dom/dom traverse (and acceleration) and now we find ourselves in a 50+ point lateral and waiting for confirmation of BO!!!

 

[ehorn]

Quote from charts:

It's tempting to try to guess and difficult to stay with the anticipation: pt2 to pt3... 1540 looks like a spyke ...

I may have misunderstood you here. Are you saying you are looking for PT2-PT3 formation of the up channel (which is not completed yet) in the possible form of continuing lateral movement or a non-dominant traverse?